Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: The Trump Dump
by
apogio
on 16/04/2025, 12:33:15 UTC
Ah, no, that is just casuality that my mouse pointer was at a point with negative correlation  Cheesy

There were definitely such phases, but since 2020 the correlation most of the time was positive. The last value was actually 0.8462. I have changed the image of the post above to reflect that.

I 'd be very surprised to see my calculations showing a 0.95 correlation on a yearly basis, whereas your observations show a -0.7 correlation Tongue
At least, finally we get a similar picture of the correlation between the S&P and Bitcoin.

However, I also believe that Trump has also been a luck factor for bitcoin most especially when his victory was announced, but only to realized late that the policies of Trump will also bring price decline for bitcoin, which could lead to the bear season of bitcoin if the price will stay dumping in the long run.

The stock market is full of bull runs and bear runs. If you stick to it long-term, you will most likely be winning. As far as Bitcoin is concerned, it' something new, despite the fact that it exists for 15 years now. Bitcoin is definitely volatile and is definitely driven by the general economic situation, so if you think Bitcoin is here to stay (like I do), you can expect it to behave like the stock market on the long run. I am not saying it will be identical, nor it will be similar. I am just saying that it's supposed to have bear runs and bull runs, but on the long-term it's projected to go up.

#no_financial_advice.