Quote from: Free Market Capitalist on Today at 02:34:10 PM

In May 2021 there was a fall in the price of bitcoin that lasted until July and had only one cause: the mining ban in China. Meanwhile, the price of the S&P 500 kept rising.

Picking a single event is even more cherry picking, and if you had read what I wrote above in other posts, I don't question that there are price movements which are caused by reasons internal to the Bitcoin ecosystem, which of course often lead to divergence with the stock markets.

Let's look more closely to the post-2020 movements and correlations:

In the periods marked by green circles, there is almost always a positive correlation (the zero-correlation line was "reforced" by me as it wasn't visible) between S&P 500 and Bitcoin. The red circles mark periods of significant negative correlations. The May 2021 event you mentioned is here also quite well visible. And in the rest of the periods I don't see a clear tendency.

We can see that there are long stretches of positive correlations which last several months with only very small "dips" into zero or negative correlation territory. 2023 is the only year since 2020 without a clear positive correlation.

For me, the long "correlated" stretches are very unlikely to be a coincidence. But I don't think there is a direct causality, as explained above. It's more related to independent variables like Fed interest rates, general market sentiment etc..