Quote from: ginsan on April 17, 2025, 02:11:58 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 16, 2025, 09:30:49 PM

Of course, each of us invests into bitcoin in accordance with our own 9 individual factors, and our perception of BTC price/value as compared with other places that we can invest is only one of the factors that we should be considering. Not everyone is at the same point in their bitcoin investment (and/or accumulation journey), yet if we presume that people are still accumulating bitcoin, then I would imagine we are presuming that they are ongoingly buying, even though some guys want to hold back some value to try to buy the dip, but if we have discretionary income and we are still accumulating then we should be mostly buying BTC on a regular basis no matter the price for a whole cycle or more, unless we might have been able to front load our bitcoin investment, then we might be less inclined to accumulate BTC for as long as the guy who might be buying bitcoin from his weekly or monthly cashflows.

Maybe that's right, There is only one difference that may not be repeated for those who are just starting to invest.
The difference is of course those who come early with bitcoin accumulation under $1k. So they are luckier compared to those who start now because they start at a price above $50k or more / $80k.

Apart from that, there is no other difference that can be said because it is never too late to start investing in bitcoin, it's just that the entry price will be different from investors who are earlier familiar with bitcoin.
One equation that continues to strengthen one goal is to accumulate continuously and hold it for the long term.
Various methods can be used in investing, even whatever the method, concentration is the first thing that must be focused on properly.

I agree with you that time in the market helps, yet even you have proclaimed that you had started out your bitcoin investment journey in a non-focused and perhaps even whimpy way, and we know that in 2016 when you came to bitcoin, the BTC price was still largely below $1k until the end of the year, and a few months into 2017, the BTC price went above $1k and did not return back down to those sub $1k prices ever again.

So a person could have had gotten started in bitcoin and he might have even presumed that he was investing into bitcoin, yet upon retrospect, he realized that his first whole cycle in bitcoin ended up being quite overly whimpy, so he ended up not accumulating much bitcoin nor getting focused, perhaps for a whole cycle.

Many of us can get thrown off about the bitcoin price and the amount of volatility, and we end up not buying very much BTC, yet at this time, you are likely realizing that almost any BTC that you would have had bought between mid 2016 and mid-2020 would have had ended up being reasonably decent purchases, even if you might have had bought some of your bitcoin at or near the top of the 2017 price run... so even if you spent quite a bit of money buying bitcoin between $10k and $20k, those purchases are still in good shape right now and after the passage of a bit of time, such as the passage of a whole new cycle.

Surely, we cannot know if the BTC price is going to continue to go up - even though we should be able to continue to see that bitcoin appears to be amongst the best, if NOT the best place that everyone and/or anyone around the world can put value, as long as they have some discretionary income.

Of course, it seems to be the case that the later arrivers are going to have a hell of a difficult time to try to accumulate even close as much bitcoin as the earlier arrivers, since bitcoin's cost as compared to each of our incomes (or the value of the dollar and/or other fiat) has been continuing to go up quite outrageously with the passage of time, and there is no reason to believe that such ongoing appreciation of bitcoin's value relative to the value of the dollar and/or other fiats and/or other assets is going to continue to show bitcoin as the best of places to keep your value, as long as you are able to set aside that value and restrain yourself from tapping into such value prior to sufficiently accumulating it and building it up to a sufficiently good size, whether that might be several bitcoins or even a fraction of a bitcoin for some of the newer entrants to bitcoin.

If someone is ONLY able to accumulate around $10 per week of bitcoin, it surely would take that person 10 years to merely invest $5,200 into bitcoin, so surely they would likely be in a better position than if they had not accumulated bitcoin, yet they might still have trouble reaching 10 million satoshis (which is 0.1 BTC), even after 10 years of accumulating bitcoin, yet each person has to figure out what they are able to do and to do what they can within their discretionary income, including if they can figure out ways to increase their discretionary income by increasing their income and/or cutting their expenses.

Quote from: Zackz5000 on April 17, 2025, 04:01:29 PM

Quote from: Derekfunds on April 17, 2025, 08:22:45 AM

Quote from: Stormisover on April 17, 2025, 04:09:24 AM

It all depends on the level of the reserve funds we have, that is to say there is nothing wrong increasing our level of aggressiveness provided it is within our supposed reserve funds for it and point of correction we don't bet on Bitcoin decline but rather we invest in Bitcoin even in decline as an advantage of buying more Bitcoin in a price lesser.

Stormisover I think you are getting something wrong because we don't actually use our reserve funds to invest in Bitcoin rather what we use is our discretionary though it is good to have a reserve fund and most importantly emergency funds which we will deep our hand into and solve problems that we will encounter while carrying out our investment and whenever we have a good emergency funds then there is every tendency that we will stay long in our investment by default and if we are determined also because one thing in life is determination because for one to go far in anything they have to be determined.

You may not really know everything concerning bitcoin investment in a situation where there is dip an investor can decide to accumulate Bitcoin by also using his reserve fund to do so i believe that's one of the purpose of reserve fund.

You can designate reserve funds for almost anything. and they should be funds that are in excess of your emergency funds.

Emergency funds should be restricted to actual emergencies that involve loss of income and/or increase in expenses that likely cause you to have expenses that are higher than your discretionary income and you likely end up with negative discretionary income, meaning expenses that are greater than income.

Of course, we may well hope that we have emergency funds that are sufficient to last through any emergency that we might have, but sometimes we might just end up in some unfortunate place in regards to our finances that could involve circumstances that are beyond our expectations or control such as some natural event that might destroy our home and our belongings and/or perhaps some health event or an accident that happens to us where we are not able to work for a certain period of time.. maybe we are able to recover or maybe our income will be diminished for the rest of our lives.

Sometimes we might also engage in sloppy cashflow management and we might know that we are vulnerable to certain losses of income and/or increases in our expenses, yet we still either don't have a sufficient emergency fund and/or back up funds to cover those kinds of known situations, and surely if we know about high odds of certain negative things happening, the we likely need money beyond our emergency funds to cover such already known probable events.

Quote from: Zackz5000 on April 17, 2025, 04:01:29 PM

Quote from: Joy- maker on April 17, 2025, 03:08:49 PM

Quote from: Tmoonz on April 17, 2025, 09:42:40 AM

Quote from: Jostern on April 17, 2025, 09:16:52 AM

There is no 100 percent guarantee that your bitcon investment will be successful even in a long term investment, let's face the reality of things that for Bitcoin to be successful is uncertain but yet we can still consider the possibilities of what we believe, I will agree with you that holding Bitcoin for a long term has the potential and benefits, less risky compared to short term but still it is not for us to say that there is a guarantee, alot struggling to accept this bitter truth but it is what is it and frugal enough for us to see it that way and make an informed investment decisions.

you are saying things the wrong way and that's the reason why I we disagree to this your statement above, because your statement will mislead newbies alot, investing in bitcoin for long term will always be successful and profitable if you manage your cash flow Very well, because for your bitcoin investment to be successful on the long run, it has to depend on the plan and the mindset of the person that investing in bitcoin and not on bitcoin, if the person plan very well he or she will know how to allocate his cash flow wisely and smartly in other for his or her bitcoin investment to be successful on the long run.

His statement won't mislead newbies because that's the reality and it is important for newbies to know that been successful in bitcoin is never guarantee that's why we are told to invest with the money we can do away with if been successful is guaranteed then people will invest with all they have knowing that they will be surely be successful in time coming.

Part of the reason that we invest no more than we can afford to lose is because we should realize that it is possible for our bitcoin investment to go to zero, so we need to be prepared for that possibility.

Of course, there are a variety of other possible outcomes that range from negative to neutral to positive to extremely positive, and so in that sense bitcoin is an asymmetric bet in which the most that we can lose is 100%, so long as we did not leverage with our bitcoin investment.

Quote from: Sim_card on April 17, 2025, 04:06:32 PM

Quote from: Tmoonz on April 17, 2025, 03:52:37 PM

[edited out]

Success in bitcoin investment doesn't really mean about profit, if you choose to accumulate 2btc and in the long run, you were able to achieve it, it means that you are achieved success in your bitcoin investment, it must not be all about making profits on your bitcoin investment. Profits should be secondary, while your bitcoin target is the primary which is why when you have a good cashflow management and you are able to keep your bitcoin accumulation ongoing, regularly, consistently and persistently, we can reach our bitcoin target or close to it in future. It al depends on how many bitcoin we set as our target.

Bitcoin investment is not 100% guarantee to make profits from it because nobody knows what will happen tomorrow which is why we should only use part of our discretionary income to invest, and don't put all your hope in bitcoin for survival in the future, so that you don't end up dying in poverty if bitcoin price goes against you. However, the chance of bitcoin price moving uptrend is higher than moving downtrend because bitcoin is in its early stage.

We still have to figure out our bitcoin investment size in accordance with our knowledge that a variety of scenarios could end up playing out, whether that might be investing 5% to 25% of our income into it or if we arrive at some other number which allows us to hedge if we feel that we need to.

Beginning investors may well conclude that they do not need to hedge and their only real hedge is the dollar (or their local fiat) since that is where there emergency funds, reserves and float should be.. .. but then as they grow their bitcoin investment, maybe after a year or two, they will start to conclude that they want to put some of their dollars in other hedges, and none of us can tell anyone else at what point in time that others might feel that it is good to hedge and/or add other assets beyond bitcoin and cash.

i am not even sure for myself, since I largely had already built my hedge before getting into bitcoin (before late 2013), yet that would not have had been the actual route for someone who comes to bitcoin without having any other investments.. and so if they are building their bitcoin investment first, prior to investing into anything else, maybe they would like to focus on bitcoin until it reaches a certain amount, perhaps as much as a whole year of their income. .before they might determine that they are going to allocate value into something else... and then if they allocate into something else, they might need to choose something that seems logical to their own situation. and then choosing a method to allocate into that something else without necessarily losing focus on their bitcoin investment.

It seems that there are not very many folks who are able to just stay almost exclusively allocated into bitcoin and cash, and even some of those folks do not keep very much cash, so they get used to having most if not all of their value in bitcoin, which does not seem practical for a large majority of normal folks.. who might need to think more practically in terms of their expenses being denominated in their local currency and perhaps their bitcoin stash is not large enough that they would be able to tolerate such potential volatility, and perhaps if some folks are exclusively earning in bitcoin (such as a miner or someone working for a bitcoin company) then sure it could be that those kinds of folks are already used to dealing with the majority, if not all of their income coming to them through bitcoin.

Quote from: adultcrypto on April 17, 2025, 04:36:56 PM

Quote from: Tmoonz on April 17, 2025, 03:52:37 PM

[edited out]

Reading through your comments the second time makes it appear like FUD, maybe that is what it actually means. Now I ask, why being so emphatic that there is no guarantee of being successful in bitcoin investment even if the investor have everything in place like proper cashflow and money management, discipline and long term holding plans? What do you want to achieve with such a scary statement? Are you saying we should therefore become scared of investing and holding bitcoin because there is no guarantee of success? How many people do you know that invested rightly and held for long term yet failed as bitcoin investors?

I will refuse to be discouraged and I know I will be successful. There is no way you will weaken my passion for bitcoin because I have trust that bitcoin will not fail me in the future. I will remain focused, applying the best practices that I am learning in this forum and also ensuring I am doing well in other areas of life outside bitcoin.

I think that many of us agree that if we work hard and we strive to do things in ways that we are continuously learning how to improve what we are doing, then our likelihood for success also improves. There is nothing wrong with thinking that working hard pays off, yet it seems problematic if you believe that you are guaranteed success merely because you work hard and you might even execute everything in your plan perfectly.

You should probably not stop with what you are doing, yet if you are telling folks that hard work is guaranteed to pay off, then you might well be overly stating the matter in your attempt to describe the world in black and white terms.

It seems possible to work within a world in which we consider the future in terms of probabilities, yet we do not expect that it is guaranteed that we are going to be successful, even if we do everything perfectly and we work our ass(es) off in the process.

Quote from: Muba20 on April 17, 2025, 04:40:19 PM

Quote from: Joy- maker on April 17, 2025, 03:08:49 PM

Quote from: Tmoonz on April 17, 2025, 09:42:40 AM

There is no 100 percent guarantee that your bitcon investment will be successful even in a long term investment, let's face the reality of things that for Bitcoin to be successful is uncertain but yet we can still consider the possibilities of what we believe, I will agree with you that holding Bitcoin for a long term has the potential and benefits, less risky compared to short term but still it is not for us to say that there is a guarantee, alot struggling to accept this bitter truth but it is what is it and frugal enough for us to see it that way and make an informed investment decisions.

you are saying things the wrong way and that's the reason why I we disagree to this your statement above, because your statement will mislead newbies alot, investing in bitcoin for long term will always be successful and profitable if you manage your cash flow Very well, because for your bitcoin investment to be successful on the long run, it has to depend on the plan and the mindset of the person that investing in bitcoin and not on bitcoin, if the person plan very well he or she will know how to allocate his cash flow wisely and smartly in other for his or her bitcoin investment to be successful on the long run.

It is true that investing in Bitcoin can never guarantee profit. But those who make a good plan and invest in the long term, depending on their strategy and financial management, have a high probability of profit. Those who have financial stability and long-term goals are more likely to succeed. Those who are long-term investors who have held their assets for a long time there is a high potentiality to make profit. There are many investors, especially those who are new, who do not know about the long-term investment period in Bitcoin. For those investors, it must be remembered that when investing in Bitcoin, Bitcoin should be held for a period of at least 4 to 10 years. Those who hold Bitcoin for a shorter period and consider it a long-term period will definitely make a mistake. Although it cannot be said for sure that you will profit only after the mentioned time, but if someone has good idea about the bitcoin price chart, he will definitely get an idea about the benefits of long-term investment.

It seems that another way of describing the dilemma that we are describing is that the lazier that you are and the more bad choices that you make, the less likely it is that you are going to be successful in life, so surely it seems that working hard and making correct choices and trying to learn from mistakes in order to improve oneself and one's direction does both help to increase our odds of success but it also puts us in a place to be able to take advantage of opportunities when they come.. There is the old mantra that preparation creates opportunities, but also the idea that preparation might also increase our abilities to be lucky too (or if we prepare then we have more likely opportunities to take advantage of lucky offers when they come, since we had already done the preparation to be able to fit into such lucky offer situation when it comes (or if it comes.. there is no guarantee that lucky offers will come)).

Quote from: Joy- maker on April 17, 2025, 06:04:38 PM

Quote from: Tmoonz on April 17, 2025, 03:52:37 PM

[edited out]There is no 100 percent guarantee that your bitcon investment will be successful even in a long term investment, let's face the reality[/b] of things that for Bitcoin to be successful is uncertain but yet we can still consider the possibilities of what we believe, I will agree with you that holding Bitcoin for a long term has the

you are saying things the wrong way and that's the reason why I we disagree to this your statement above, because your statement will mislead newbies alot, investing in bitcoin for long term will always be successful and profitable if you manage your cash flow Very well, because for your bitcoin investment to be successful on the long run, it has to depend on the plan and the mindset of the person that investing in bitcoin and not on bitcoin, if the person plan very well he or she will know how to allocate his cash flow wisely and smartly in other for his or her bitcoin investment to be successful on the long run.

Quote from: Tmoonz on April 17, 2025, 03:52:37 PM

There is nothing misleading in my post rather you are the one sounding misleading/ confused and failing to accept the fact that the whole environment is saturated with uncertainties making It not 100 percent guarantee, i have said it before and I will say it again, there is no guarantee that you are going to be successful in your Bitcoin investment even if you even if you have a good cash flow management, your mindset and good plans which of course there is nothing wrong having those good plans and cash flow management in place buy still doesn't guarantee that your investment will be successful in a the long term.

If you claim that what you said is not misleading, now let me ask you what kind of message are you trying to pass are you now telling us that we should be scared of investing bitcoin that it we not guaranteed us successful even in the long term? I know you are trying to pass a message but the way you passed the message was wrong and it was misleading, because to be successful in bitcoin investment depend on the person who is investing and his cash flow, if I can manage my cash flow and be able to allocate it wisely and smartly by allocating my discretionary to bitcoin investment after settling I my family needs and expenses and allocate some money to emergency fund some to my reserve fund so tell me why is my bitcoin investment not going to be successful if I can be patient enough to hold my bitcoin for long term.

Even if you do everything perfect or close to perfect as you describe, you are not guaranteed to be successful in your bitcoin investment. Sure, it helps that you did everything correctly and perfectly, so you have taken out some of the execution risk, but there are other risks besides your execution risks that are involved with bitcoin.

I surely like to frequently assert that each of us should try to control the things that we can control and not try to control the things that we cannot control, so in that sense, no matter what we should try to create systems for ourselves in which we are always financially and psychologically prepared for either direction of the BTC price and even extremes, especially in the short term, yet surely in the long term we expect and hope that bitcoin has higher odds of going up rather than going down, which is part of the reason that bitcoin remains amongst the best of asymmetric bets, if not the best of asymmetric bets.

So even if bitcoin is a great asymmetric bet, it is still not guaranteed to go up, and even though it could be somewhat close to guaranteed that if we exercise good risk management practices and we do not employ leverage, then the most that we can lose is 100%.

Quote from: Proty on April 17, 2025, 06:42:15 PM

Quote from: Joy- maker on April 17, 2025, 03:08:49 PM

you are saying things the wrong way and that's the reason why I we disagree to this your statement above, because your statement will mislead newbies alot, investing in bitcoin for long term will always be successful and profitable if you manage your cash flow Very well, because for your bitcoin investment to be successful on the long run, it has to depend on the plan and the mindset of the person that investing in bitcoin and not on bitcoin, if the person plan very well he or she will know how to allocate his cash flow wisely and smartly in other for his or her bitcoin investment to be successful on the long run.

First of all it is obvious you fail to understand that there are risk involved in bitcoin investment and the reason why long term investment is prioritise over short term is because of the volatile nature of bitcoin,no investors can speculate or predict correctly the exact price of bitcoin for that reason short term investment is more riskier when compared with longer term investment, however we can't say for sure that the fact that we are holding bitcoin for a long term that our investment in bitcoin is going to be successful,so long term investment is not a guarantee that our investment is going to be successful.

It is funny that some guys believe that their investment into bitcoin becomes guaranteed merely because it is longer term, and sure, we likely realize that a lot more extreme volatility can happen in the short term, while at the same time, there is a certain underlying foundation with bitcoin that continues to contribute towards it having an upwards price trajectory that is based on various fundamentals that are also reflected in the ongoing growth of bitcoin's network effects too.