Quote from: Lucius on Today at 02:42:48 PM

Interesting thinking, would that mean that maybe in the next 5 years we will experience a super bull run, followed by what you call Super Bear Cycle?

Not necessarily. I think a super bull run would be probably triggered by some more long-term adoption. Be it companies and states buying it as strategic reserves, or a more relevant usage as payment tool. This would mean that in this case would not see the Super Bear Cycle, instead after the Super Bull Run the volatility would slowly cool down, but the usage patterns would stabilize.

For your scenario, my question is: How could a Super Bull Run be triggered without any news which hint to some adoption? This would mean a purely speculative super bull run.

One possibility for that to happen is if a "expected" bear market happens to be much lighter than before, e.g. Bitcoin only falling 30 or 40% instead of 70 or 80%. This could eliminate panic but actually trigger FOMO. But I also don't know if this is possible without some increased "real" adoption, as in a purely speculative scenario I expect panic dumps to be still frequent.

Normally my Super Bear scenario is different: as I recently discussed in another thread, the growth rates in bull runs have decreased approximately by 60-70% between each cycle. If this tendency continues, Bitcoin's price would be capped at $250,000 or at most $300,000, and the bull runs would become weaker. This would actually be the opposite scenario of a Super Bull: FOMO doesn't build up anymore, this means there is constant sell pressure, while potential for panic dumps still is there.

For all these reasons I think actually a Super Bull would be a positive sign in most cases. It would instead be a warning sign if the upside volatility continues to decrease without new non-speculative adoption steps.

Quote from: Lucius on Today at 02:42:48 PM

My thinking is similar in the sense that things could "cool down" after the miners have done most of their work (which will happen in the next 5-6 years) and when we only have 1% BTC left to mine. Is it realistic to expect that things will not be the same as they are today when miners start to slowly exit the game?

Here I don't really understand the connection. A decrease of mining as a consequence of the mining rewards lowering in USD (until now, BTC managed to equilibrate the loss by halvings) would not have direct a direct impact on the market. Miners of course also have periods where they hodl coins and others where they sell, and thus they are somewhat important market participants. But I believe other factors to be much stronger, like "reatailer sentiment" and concrete adoption steps (big company investing in BTC for example, BTC becoming leading means of international transactions).

Quote from: Lucius on Today at 02:42:48 PM

I wonder how many people like that there are today and how many there will be in a few years, because it's no secret that most people are only interested in BTC for one reason.

There is still hope for a "trickling in" of convinced Bitcoiners from those who are in for speculative reasons. But in the case the community becomes more passive, this trickling in may actually halt, and then after the Super Bear things would look quite bleak.