Quote from: l3pox on Today at 12:42:22 PM

we will see bitcoin at 1 million usd per coin [...] the base case is reaching gold in terms of market cap [...] M2 will keep going up and bitcoin is a proxy for the m2 nowadays

I think many of us know the "rainbow charts" with decreasing highs. They can't predict the exact high of course, but approximately can tell us a tendency, based on the decreasing volatility.

If we take the cycle highs and cycle lows until now, we get the following picture:

- 2011-2013: High 1150, Low 2. (57000% growth high from low)
- 2015-2017: High 19500, Low 135 (13000% high -> low, 1500% high-previous high, 6500% low- previous low)
- 2018-2021: High 69000, Low 3000 (2200% high -> low, 250% high-previous high, 2100% low-previous low)
- 2022-2025: High ?, Low 15500 (400% low-previous low)

We see that all growth percentages decrease at least by 66% between cycles, most of the time 75% and more.

This means for the 2022-25 cycle, even if we see another ATH, it's likely to be below ca. 130000$ according to that tendency, which would be a 85% growth from the previous high of 69000 (close to 250% * 0.3333... according to the - 66% rule).

The next cycle could bring us to ~170000$.

We can now continue this game but it would converge below 250000$ as we can easily see.

How can we reach 500,000$, 600,000$ or even a million? Well there are two possibilities:

- a disruptive bull run which breaks the tendency and achieves a growth rate like in previous bull runs. This could indeed, as you already suggested, happen if Bitcoin is considered a real alternative to gold. Or with some other form of real mass adoption outside of short term speculation.
- a USD hyperinflation. This would not make much of a difference for Bitcoin hodlers though, but at least it would allow them to preserve the value. I consider this highly unlikely though.

In my opinion it's likely we will see such a disruptive bull run eventually. But remember this would only take us out of the curve which converges at $250k. So it's not sure if it will reach $500k or even a million. Just my 2 cents.