Buy the DIP, and HODL
The futures market for the S&P 500 is down by 1.30%, which is a big drawdown for an index, but Bitcoin is currently up by about 2.60%.
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Does that actually mean that the decoupling is happening?
Bitcoin has never been coupled... so you are delusional if you believe that it has been coupled...
even though sure, for short periods of time, bitcoin seems to be correlated with various traditional asset classes, but those who consider that bitcoin is actually coupled with various traditional assets are failing/refusing to either zoom out or to appreciate bitcoin's actual non-correlated status, even if it can seem to have extended periods of appearing to be coupled (when it is not).
What would actually be delusional, and obviously laughable, is to believe that the Bitcoin market is totally decoupled from legacy markets. It could probably be totally be decoupled if Bitcoin has developed its own economy that's independent of the traditional economy.
I think that the BIGGER mistake comes from folks failing/refusing to consider bitcoin's distinctions from various legacy markets, and no of course, bitcoin is not totally uncorrelated to macro factors and/or to the movements of various fiat based systems...
At the same time, each of us who have been studying bitcoin and/or who have been into bitcoin for some time should be able to recognize and appreciate various break outs that bitcoin does from time to time, and so the guys who are buying into the correlation bullshit end up discounting the relevance and/or importance of such ongoing and likely to continue bitcoin break outs that happen fairly regularly.
That would indeed be the best aftermath of "Trump's Tariffs". That they cause capital flight from equities to hard assets like Gold and Bitcoin. Gold has been looking "parabolic", considering, for its market size.
Hopefully you are not getting distracted into gold., since surely gold is quite greatly inferior to bitcoin, even though sure it might have some period of decently good performance, especially relative to the dollar.
No, of course not, ser. But parity with or MORE than Gold's total market value, for me, should be Bitcoin's "North Star".
Parity with gold is not going to be that hard to achieve.. and so it seems more accurate to be considering beyond gold.. such as 10x to 1000x beyond gold, even though bitcoin might not make it to 1,000x beyond gold for 50-200 years, but still seems like a better north star rather than getting distracted by short term gold price moves.. and surely there are some folks who are probably failing/refusing to adequately/sufficiently buy (or hold onto their) bitcoin based on such gold distractions.
New investors generally do not have a good idea about the advantages of long-term investment, and those investors are not aware of DCA investment. So, if through your discussion they know about the advantages of long-term investment and know about DCA investment strategy, then I think every new investor will invest in a long-term plan at the beginning of the investment and will maintain the continuity of that investment in the DCA investment method.
Now, what you said first that every investor in a new situation waits for the price of Bitcoin to come down relatively, it is natural for investors to do so because the lower the price of Bitcoin they can buy, the more the profit potential will increase if the price of Bitcoin increases later. However, we do not know how the market may change or at what point the market may go up again, that is why we have to invest continuously so that when the price increases, the investor has Bitcoin investment everywhere.
Look, reality and theory are not the same thing. You say, if everyone knew the benefits of DCA and long-term investment, then everyone would follow it. But do people act only if they know? Then everyone would be health conscious, go to the gym, and quit smoking! The reality is—when the market price falls, many people sell out of panic. Where is DCA then? Without discipline and emotion control, this theory does not work in reality.
Putting DCA into practice reinforces the practice, an so there is a bit of a ritual towards making sure to invest weekly (or whatever regular period that might exist), and also performing other cashflow management practices in order to both be able to prepare to invest into bitcoin weekly but also to keep track of various ongoing bitcoin building processes.. so that price movement may well not have too much of an affect on the various practices that are regularly carried out.
Selling would not be one of the practices for anyone in their first cycle and maybe not even in their second cycle, except maybe for spend and replace kind of practices.
We should not be getting obsessed with mistakes that others make or even a lot of others make similar mistakes, while at the same time, we should be focusing on our own practices that help us to not make mistakes (or at least to minimize the quantity or the severity of the impact of the mistakes that we may well end up making)
And when you hear the saying, 'everyone will invest long-term' it seems as if all new investors think the same way.
We have to figure our own timeline and to not be preoccupying ourselves with what others think, unless it happens to be in order to attempt to learn from them or their mistakes. Ultimately, we should be figuring out and applying
our own personal factors to our own situation as we assess it.
In reality, some are running on small incomes, some cannot take risks, some just buy out of FOMO. DCA is not possible to execute for everyone. So this generalization 'everyone will do it if they know' is a very idealistic thought.
DCA tends to be the best of systems that is equally beneficial to everyone, even if they might apply their DCA approach in differing ways. Sure, if they have opportunties for lump sum investing, then they can incorporate that into their considerations about the extent to which they might want to deviate from DCA or even if they might want to supplement their lump sum buying with DCA and/or buying on dips.
And if you buy when the price falls, the profit will be higher it is logical.
You seem to not know what you are talking about if you consider buying on dips to be preferred to DCA, as if you know what the BTC price is going to do in advance. I doubt it.
Everyone wants to buy at a low price, what is wrong with that?
It is a dumb idea for newbies who are either no coiners or low coiners, and it may also be a bad idea for folks who have been investing into bitcoin for a while, especially if they are still in their early accumulation phases, such as their first whole bitcoin cycle.
If you had been able to front load your investment with large investment amounts, then sure, it may well be possible to just buy dips rather than regularly investing, yet most folks don't have lump sum amounts available to them and then tend to only have income as it is coming in,so they would invest into bitcoin as their money comes available.
This is the natural instinct of investors. Rather, blindly 'buy at any price'
If your natural instinct is bad (wrong or inferior) then you need to improve your first instinct through learning what would be the better practice, rather than sticking with an inferior practice.
You can improve yourself when you learn rather than sticking with your first inclination(s).
— this advice can sometimes be dangerous for beginners. Because if the market goes down further, it is not easy to handle the mental and financial shock.
One of the things that any beginner should attempt to learn is position size, and also he should learn to invest in such a way that he will continue to be able to invest for a whole cycle or more, and so it takes a while to build up a bitcoin portfolio, especially if investing weekly for 4-10 years or more... even over a year, weekly investing would be 52 investments, and over 4 years, that would be 208 investments..
Each of those investments should not make any BIG difference, even though they all add up to a lot of money. Sure there may be inclinations to front load the investment for anyone who has lump sum amounts available, so maybe he might divide his earliest lump sum amount into three categories of 1) buying right away, 2) DCA and 3) buying dips. Perhaps? Perhaps? Guys have to figure out these kinds of matters, and there is not necessarily one best answer, especially if a guy has a lump sum from the start, but if the guy only has his salary coming in, then it is likely best to employ DCA with something like a salary.
Therefore, investment advice should be given only after understanding the difference between real experience on one hand, and theory on paper on the other.
Each person has to figure out for himself, and hopefully, in forums like this people are learning rather than giving and/or receiving investment advice. If their plan goes well or not so well then they have to live with the consequences, and surely many guys in this forum (even active in this thread) have figured out that DCA tends to be amongst the best of practices for a lot of folks, even though there is more to investing besides DCA buying, but also to be supplemented by good cashflow management practice and also considerations about options in the event that any of us might be starting out our bitcoin investment journey with lump sum amounts available rather than merely having our discretionary income to invest from.
By the way, during your time on the forum, since May 2013, maybe you have been able to accumulate enough bitcoin over the years, yet there are surely many guys who are way newer to bitcoin than you. Hopefully you did much of your accumulation in your first few years that you were registered on the forum and you did not get too fucked up with trading and/or waiting for dips that did not happen.
And even in your situation, why would it have had mattered very much if you had bought the dip or not if you had a longer term time frame? But, yeah, you seem to not believe in longer term time frames so hopefully you have been able to accumulate enough or more than enough bitcoin by now so that you don't necessarily need to worry about if the bitcoin price dips since you should have more than enough bitcoin by now.
If you don't have enough bitcoin and you are still accumulating, then hopefully you are not following the dumbass tactics that you proclaim to be the better ones, which seem to be focused on waiting rather than ongoing, persistent, consistent, regular and perhaps even aggressive buying, which is what the newbie in vdstors shoud be attempting to focus upon rather than getting distracted into waiting rather than buying techniques.
Exactly, I've come across many people that thinks Bitcoin is very costly and they'll only wait for it to get lower before they start buying, I don't blame them cause they're very ignorant if they know about the DCA I don't think they'll bother about the price of Bitcoin or even wait for the price of Bitcoin to get Lower before they buy, no matter how they wait,
Surely most guys are fully aware about Bitcoin and it's capability but still chose fear, uncertainty and doubt (FUD) over trusting Bitcoin. But that is not my problem, they can aswell decide not to buy and HODL but one thing for sure is that they will cry later like those Bitcoin critics who never believe in Bitcoin right from day one. Of course History wil still repeat itself.
In my funny way of expression I will say Bitcoin investment is like military Barack training, where people from different destination comes and go, but barracks remain thesame. It's only those who are seriously minded will be able to overcome and pass through it. Most people knew about the training but where not able to graduate with others because they lack the zeal and patience to work it out to the end. The beginning of everything is usually easy but time will tell how long you can withstand it. This applies to every aspect of life. So apart from Bitcoin investment, anything we decide to do, we should see to the end of it rather than starting up and given up and later criticize it simply because wile are not able to succeed.
We stick with our decision to invest into bitcoin for 4-10 years or longer, and hopefully we learn along the way and tweak our approach at various points along the way, too... We may well start out primarily focused on BTC accumulation, and then we might advance into maintenance and then later we might advance into some kind of a sustainable withdrawal that might be price based and/or time based. Sure some guys might lapse into trading or shitcoins, and hopefully they figure out something that ends up working for their situation.