I have my doubts about whether a no coiner who starts investing right now $200 per week into bitcoin will be able to acccumulate a whole bitcoin in 10 years.  sure it is possible, but it is not guaranteed, and surely it takes a lot of time to build a bitcoin portfolio.

By the way, investing $200 per week  would result in $10.4k invested per year and $104k invested over 10 years.  That is likely not enough to accumulate a whole bitcoin in that time, since I suspect that the average cost per bitcoin is going to be more than $104k over the next 10 years.

Surely, any relatively young person who is able to start investing $200 per week right now is likely going to be able to increase his dollarly amount invested into bitcoin over the next 10 years, and it is also likely that $200 is going to be worth a lot less than $100 in todays dollars in 10 years time... It may not even be worth $50.. . depending on how the dollar might perform in the next 10 years, and surely we also would be faced with our concerns about how we measure the value of our bitcoin stack, including that one of my favorite ways to attempt to measure current value of my bitcoin stash is based on how many years of my income it is worth.

For example, if I might consider that my current income per year is aimed at being $80k per year, then right now 10 years of that would be $800k, which right now would be 17.36 bitcoin.. yet in 4 years or less, that same level of valuation of $800k with the 200-WMA and thus $80k equivalent of income in today's dollars from my bitcoin may only require right around 8.68 BTC to accomplish (that is 17.36 BTC ÷ 2).

We don't know exactly the future, yet we can attempt to ballpark evaluate what we might need to sustain our targeted level of income within our hoped for standard of living, in the event that the world is not blown up by then.

Also with your already established backup funds, your investment is safe from being tampered since the backup funds provides that guarantee.
[/quote]

Having back up funds does not guarantee that your bitcoins are going to be safe, yet the quantity of your back up funds will help to mitigate any risk to your bitcoin investment to the extent that any emergency and/or cashflow problems may last that might be causing you to draw upon your back up funds (or emergency funds) for your expenses rather than your being able to rely upon your income and/or having excess discretionary income to take care of your expenses.  The longer and more intense your cashflow shortage and the size of your back up funds will help to determine the extent to which your bitcoin investment might be put in jeopardy.


You seem to be taking matters to an opposite extreme Tonimez.

Each of us should be striving to make whatever preparations we are able to make within our means to attempt to address all of the more likely scenarios, and surely, we may well be striving to address various extreme scenarios too, yet we can ONLY do our best in regards to our preparations for various potentially extreme scenarios.

We can also attempt to prepare based on our own individual circumstances, and surely if we had been able to earn a certain level of income over a year or two, then we might have some expectation that we are either able to maintain the same income or that if something negative happens with our current income that we would be able to replace such current income with other potential resources that we have at our disposal (or at least within our knowledge of our skill set and possible back up income sources).

The more uncertain our situation, then the more justification to maintain higher levels of emergency funds.. and surely, we may well be a beginner to bitcoin, and like you suggested, we may well attempt to build up our bitcoin investment and our emergency funds at the same time, and surely we may well be more vulnerable in the earliest of stages of simultaneously building up both funds, yet perhaps the longer that we build up, then the more confidence that we can have that both our back up funds and our bitcoin investment are in a position or relative strength, yet even our confidence might not become overly strong within the first year or two, even though we may well gain more and more confidence, especially if we might have been investing in bitcoin and building our various back up funds and building other aspects of our cashflow management practices over a cycle or two cycles.

So, we build more and more confidence the longer that we are building our systems, and surely even if we might have had periods of good progress and even set backs, it is likely that the longer that we are building the stronger our systems and our investment will become, unless we ended up making really large mistakes along the way that caused us major set backs, so in some sense our attempts at building smart would be to attempt to minimize our chances for having major set backs and hopefully any mistakes that we make do not end up contributing towards large set backs and we are able to keep building and progressing in our building of systems.  We strive to do our best within our own parameters by attempt to invest smartly and without taking unreasonable risks.


Those categories of income that you describe, work bonus, birthday gift money, jackpot winnings are all forms of discretionary income, since they are extra money beyond expenses.


Any of us can buy weekly and/or adjust our weekly buys upwards and/or downwards depending on our perceptions of market conditions or even our own cashflow situations.. and surely, I consider one of the values of weekly buying, especially for bitcoin newbies, is to help them to get into a habit of buying bitcoin regularly and prioritizing bitcoin and even researching and further learning about bitcoin.. the activism helps to reinforce commitment.. or at least helps to tailorize such commitment o personal circumstances.

Once any of us has established several years of investing into bitcoin, then we may well have had developed a habit of investing into bitcoin, yet at some point the size of our bitcoin investment might also help to inform us the extent to which we might need to tweak our bitcoin investment approach and perhaps change away from consistent, persistent, ongoing, regular and perhaps even aggressive bitcoin buying.

Surely, also if we are already in the habit of buying bitcoin weekly, and if for some reason some lump sum amounts come available, then we may well find ourselves in a better position to figure out the extent to which we might prioritize how much of our lump sum (and how to put it) into bitcoin.  So, yeah, in the end, with experience we would potentially be focusing on DCA, yet at the same time, potentially supplementing our DCA accumulation of bitcoin with lump sum buying and/or buying dips.


Personally, I would not consider buying dips to be a form of front loading a bitcoin investment, since from my perspective, front loading does not necessarily require waiting and/or trying to time bottom prices.  Sure, if the BTC price happens to be down when a person decides to invest more capital into bitcoin, then coincidentally, perceptions of low BTC prices might have marginally ended up increasing the size of the bitcoin investment.

Personally, I consider front loading to be an attempt to invest more into bitcoin and not necessarily knowing if the BTC price might go down further, but still willing to take some chance to invest more into bitcoin at a certain specific time, and front loading may well end up being supplemented by keeping some money aside for potentially buying dips after the time the front loaded amount had ended up being invested... .so for example, there may be a person who has a plan to invest $100 per week into bitcoin, and maybe that plan had already been started, so then  such person may well anticipate that after a year he would have had invested around $5,200 into bitcoin and after 4 years, with such continued DCA amount, he would have had invested around $20,800 into bitcoin.

Maybe that same person has some other investments that he had been making for nearly 10 years, and so those other investments add up to around $66k.. perhaps $40k invested into them and around $26k worth of appreciated value.  The guy decides to withdraw 10% in order to allocate that into bitcoin.. so within that $6,600 withdrawal, he is considering investing $4,000 into bitcoin right away, and then to structure $2,600 for buying of dips that may or may not end up happening.  If he received the money today, then maybe he invests the $4,000 right around $93.6k, and then he sets up his buying on dips to be for $200 each right around every $2k increment of a price falls, starting around $91,111.11, so he is only able to do 13 buy orders for $200 each and down to $6567,111.11, so the structure of the buy orders might look like this:

2) $89,111.11  - $200

23) $87,111.11  - $200

34) $85,111.11  - $200

45) $83,111.11  - $200

56) $81,111.11  - $200

67) $79,111.11  - $200

78 ) $77,111.11  - $200

8 9) $75,111.11  - $200

910) $73,111.11  - $200

1011) $71,111.11  - $200

1112) $69,111.11  - $200

1213) $67,111.11  - $200

13) $65,111.11  - $200

Of course, he can make changes to these increments and/or amounts based on changes in sentiment and/or changes in the amount of money that he might have come available for buying on dips.  Surely, he does not have a lot of confidence about his current buy on dip buy orders getting executed, so he considers them to be insurance against his fears of dip and his desire to keep some money available for such possibilities, even though he considers them to be long shots, and in the meantime, every week he is going to continue to be buying $100 worth of bitcoin, and he also well consider making further allocations to bitcoin in the event that through the year, he might get more extra cash that comes available to him... which historically he has tended to get $1k to $2k bonus payments around 2 to 3 times per year.


It does seem best to keep an ongoing DCA strategy going, even if a guy might choose to set up some buying on dip orders as a form of insurance and to make him feel better psychologically.  Yet, at the same time, if a guy has a buy on the dip strategy, he also has to recognize and appreciate that his buy on the dip amounts might never end up getting executed, yet there are some guys who are going to prefer to set up buy on the dip systems and to keep such buy on the dip systems active.


Surely, we could choose to allocate to both bitcoin and gold, and personally, I don't see it to be necessary to allocate to gold for guys who have bitcoin, yet there are still going to be some guys who choose to have both.. and it really seems crazy when there are guys who claim to understand bitcoin, yet they choose to allocate anymore than 10% of the size of their bitcoin allocation to gold.


Sure, both can be manipulated, and gold has been manipulated for quite a long time, including various aspects of it's being manipulated in the last 100 years should not be under appreciated, including in the last 30-ish years, there have been more and more financialization of gold and the creation of a variety of new gold paper products.  

Based on bitcoin's attributes relative to gold's attributes, it seems quite a bit harder to manipulate bitcoin - especially since bitcoin is more portable, more verifiable, easier to hold in self-custody, more divisible and quite a bit less costly, so gold's physicality also gets in the way in terms of contributing to costs and contributing to its being manipulated in more ways than bitcoin can be manipulated.

 

I agree with you, yet I doubt it is going to take 10 years for bitcoin's superiority to gold and/or gold's inferiority to bitcoin to be figured out by wider and wider swaths of the populace, and also including institutions and governments to more broadly recognition of bitcoin's superiority to gold.


I would consider "basic knowledge" about whether or not we can invest into bitcoin relates to figuring out whether or not we have discretionary income that can be put into bitcoin... If we have discretionary income then we can invest into bitcoin.  Of course, other basics relate to cashflow management, which also seems to be more important rather than figuring out various details about bitcoin.   Sure, we can look at bitcoin historical charts and see that number tends to go up, but we can also see that number is quite volatile, so basically if we know that bitcoin is quite volatile and it tends to go up, we might well consider that if we invest into bitcoin for 4-10 years or more then such investment may well end up paying off better to have had been invested as compared with someone who had not invested into bitcoin.

We can study bitcoin as we go along, yet our having discretionary income seems to be the most basic thing to know at the time we get started in bitcoin.


A getting started strategy seems to be important, which seems to relate more to either DCA or lump sum buying rather than buying on dip, and surely I would consider a waiting strategy or a buying on dip strategy to be inferior strategies as compared with DCA and/or lump sum buying for anyone who is either brand new to bitcoin (such as a no coiner) or even someone who has been in bitcoin for a while but still hardly has any BTC.. who perhaps is a low coiner.  

So it is likely better for anyone to start to buy BTC and perhaps even to buy fairly regularly, such as once a week, while they are figuring out more of the details about bitcoin and/or regarding how aggressive that they might want to become in their bitcoin accumulation approach.  There are some strategies that are superior, yet sure each person should be attempting to figure out their own ways of going forward with getting started in bitcoin if they have not yet already started.


I don't have any problems with the idea of starting out conservatively, and so if we are merely starting out investing $10 or even $100, then we may well not have to worry so much about protecting it, since it is still a small amount, yet surely the larger it becomes, perhaps after several weeks investing, then we might become more and more concerned about making sure that we protect the amount, including if we might start with a third party custodian, we might be inspired to figure out some ways to employ self-custody.


Most of us who have been into bitcoin or even who are getting into bitcoin may well consider that it is good to learn about bitcoin and to improve our understanding of bitcoin while we are building up our bitcoin accumulation size, yet at the same time, the reality of the world is that only about 1% of the world's population has any price exposure to bitcoin and many folks have failed refused to either look forward into bitcoin and/or to invest into bitcoin.  

Sure, their lack of looking into bitcoin and/or investing into bitcoin is likely going to work to their disadvantage, but it is not like we can necessarily lecture other folks about their being negligent in regards to their own finances, merely because they are likely going to end up losing out.  Sure, we can try to inform folks about bitcoin, to the extent that they might get sparked into looking into it and potentially investing into it, yet it is going to take time to build up the adopters of bitcoin, and surely some folks are learning faster than others, but it is not like the awareness of bitcoin process (and the take action process) can be forced.

I have my doubts about whether a no coiner who starts investing right now $200 per week into bitcoin will be able to acccumulate a whole bitcoin in 10 years.  sure it is possible, but it is not guaranteed, and surely it takes a lot of time to build a bitcoin portfolio.

By the way, investing $200 per week  would result in $10.4k invested per year and $104k invested over 10 years.  That is likely not enough to accumulate a whole bitcoin in that time, since I suspect that the average cost per bitcoin is going to be more than $104k over the next 10 years.

Surely, any relatively young person who is able to start investing $200 per week right now is likely going to be able to increase his dollarly amount invested into bitcoin over the next 10 years, and it is also likely that $200 is going to be worth a lot less than $100 in todays dollars in 10 years time... It may not even be worth $50.. . depending on how the dollar might perform in the next 10 years, and surely we also would be faced with our concerns about how we measure the value of our bitcoin stack, including that one of my favorite ways to attempt to measure current value of my bitcoin stash is based on how many years of my income it is worth.

For example, if I might consider that my current income per year is aimed at being $80k per year, then right now 10 years of that would be $800k, which right now would be 17.36 bitcoin.. yet in 4 years or less, that same level of valuation of $800k with the 200-WMA and thus $80k equivalent of income in today's dollars from my bitcoin may only require right around 8.68 BTC to accomplish (that is 17.36 BTC ÷ 2).

We don't know exactly the future, yet we can attempt to ballpark evaluate what we might need to sustain our targeted level of income within our hoped for standard of living, in the event that the world is not blown up by then.

Also with your already established backup funds, your investment is safe from being tampered since the backup funds provides that guarantee.
[/quote]

Having back up funds does not guarantee that your bitcoins are going to be safe, yet the quantity of your back up funds will help to mitigate any risk to your bitcoin investment to the extent that any emergency and/or cashflow problems may last that might be causing you to draw upon your back up funds (or emergency funds) for your expenses rather than your being able to rely upon your income and/or having excess discretionary income to take care of your expenses.  The longer and more intense your cashflow shortage and the size of your back up funds will help to determine the extent to which your bitcoin investment might be put in jeopardy.


You seem to be taking matters to an opposite extreme Tonimez.

Each of us should be striving to make whatever preparations we are able to make within our means to attempt to address all of the more likely scenarios, and surely, we may well be striving to address various extreme scenarios too, yet we can ONLY do our best in regards to our preparations for various potentially extreme scenarios.

We can also attempt to prepare based on our own individual circumstances, and surely if we had been able to earn a certain level of income over a year or two, then we might have some expectation that we are either able to maintain the same income or that if something negative happens with our current income that we would be able to replace such current income with other potential resources that we have at our disposal (or at least within our knowledge of our skill set and possible back up income sources).

The more uncertain our situation, then the more justification to maintain higher levels of emergency funds.. and surely, we may well be a beginner to bitcoin, and like you suggested, we may well attempt to build up our bitcoin investment and our emergency funds at the same time, and surely we may well be more vulnerable in the earliest of stages of simultaneously building up both funds, yet perhaps the longer that we build up, then the more confidence that we can have that both our back up funds and our bitcoin investment are in a position or relative strength, yet even our confidence might not become overly strong within the first year or two, even though we may well gain more and more confidence, especially if we might have been investing in bitcoin and building our various back up funds and building other aspects of our cashflow management practices over a cycle or two cycles.

So, we build more and more confidence the longer that we are building our systems, and surely even if we might have had periods of good progress and even set backs, it is likely that the longer that we are building the stronger our systems and our investment will become, unless we ended up making really large mistakes along the way that caused us major set backs, so in some sense our attempts at building smart would be to attempt to minimize our chances for having major set backs and hopefully any mistakes that we make do not end up contributing towards large set backs and we are able to keep building and progressing in our building of systems.  We strive to do our best within our own parameters by attempt to invest smartly and without taking unreasonable risks.


Those categories of income that you describe, work bonus, birthday gift money, jackpot winnings are all forms of discretionary income, since they are extra money beyond expenses.


Any of us can buy weekly and/or adjust our weekly buys upwards and/or downwards depending on our perceptions of market conditions or even our own cashflow situations.. and surely, I consider one of the values of weekly buying, especially for bitcoin newbies, is to help them to get into a habit of buying bitcoin regularly and prioritizing bitcoin and even researching and further learning about bitcoin.. the activism helps to reinforce commitment.. or at least helps to tailorize such commitment o personal circumstances.

Once any of us has established several years of investing into bitcoin, then we may well have had developed a habit of investing into bitcoin, yet at some point the size of our bitcoin investment might also help to inform us the extent to which we might need to tweak our bitcoin investment approach and perhaps change away from consistent, persistent, ongoing, regular and perhaps even aggressive bitcoin buying.

Surely, also if we are already in the habit of buying bitcoin weekly, and if for some reason some lump sum amounts come available, then we may well find ourselves in a better position to figure out the extent to which we might prioritize how much of our lump sum (and how to put it) into bitcoin.  So, yeah, in the end, with experience we would potentially be focusing on DCA, yet at the same time, potentially supplementing our DCA accumulation of bitcoin with lump sum buying and/or buying dips.


Personally, I would not consider buying dips to be a form of front loading a bitcoin investment, since from my perspective, front loading does not necessarily require waiting and/or trying to time bottom prices.  Sure, if the BTC price happens to be down when a person decides to invest more capital into bitcoin, then coincidentally, perceptions of low BTC prices might have marginally ended up increasing the size of the bitcoin investment.

Personally, I consider front loading to be an attempt to invest more into bitcoin and not necessarily knowing if the BTC price might go down further, but still willing to take some chance to invest more into bitcoin at a certain specific time, and front loading may well end up being supplemented by keeping some money aside for potentially buying dips after the time the front loaded amount had ended up being invested... .so for example, there may be a person who has a plan to invest $100 per week into bitcoin, and maybe that plan had already been started, so then  such person may well anticipate that after a year he would have had invested around $5,200 into bitcoin and after 4 years, with such continued DCA amount, he would have had invested around $20,800 into bitcoin.

Maybe that same person has some other investments that he had been making for nearly 10 years, and so those other investments add up to around $66k.. perhaps $40k invested into them and around $26k worth of appreciated value.  The guy decides to withdraw 10% in order to allocate that into bitcoin.. so within that $6,600 withdrawal, he is considering investing $4,000 into bitcoin right away, and then to structure $2,600 for buying of dips that may or may not end up happening.  If he received the money today, then maybe he invests the $4,000 right around $93.6k, and then he sets up his buying on dips to be for $200 each right around every $2k increment of a price falls, starting around $91,111.11, so he is only able to do 13 buy orders for $200 each and down to $65,111.11, so the structure of the buy orders might look like this:

2) $89,111.11  - $200

2) $87,111.11  - $200

3) $85,111.11  - $200

4) $83,111.11  - $200

5) $81,111.11  - $200

6) $79,111.11  - $200

7) $77,111.11  - $200

8 ) $75,111.11  - $200

9) $73,111.11  - $200

10) $71,111.11  - $200

11) $69,111.11  - $200

12) $67,111.11  - $200

13) $65,111.11  - $200

Of course, he can make changes to these increments and/or amounts based on changes in sentiment and/or changes in the amount of money that he might have come available for buying on dips.  Surely, he does not have a lot of confidence about his current buy on dip buy orders getting executed, so he considers them to be insurance against his fears of dip and his desire to keep some money available for such possibilities, even though he considers them to be long shots, and in the meantime, every week he is going to continue to be buying $100 worth of bitcoin, and he also well consider making further allocations to bitcoin in the event that through the year, he might get more extra cash that comes available to him... which historically he has tended to get $1k to $2k bonus payments around 2 to 3 times per year.


It does seem best to keep an ongoing DCA strategy going, even if a guy might choose to set up some buying on dip orders as a form of insurance and to make him feel better psychologically.  Yet, at the same time, if a guy has a buy on the dip strategy, he also has to recognize and appreciate that his buy on the dip amounts might never end up getting executed, yet there are some guys who are going to prefer to set up buy on the dip systems and to keep such buy on the dip systems active.


Surely, we could choose to allocate to both bitcoin and gold, and personally, I don't see it to be necessary to allocate to gold for guys who have bitcoin, yet there are still going to be some guys who choose to have both.. and it really seems crazy when there are guys who claim to understand bitcoin, yet they choose to allocate anymore than 10% of the size of their bitcoin allocation to gold.


Sure, both can be manipulated, and gold has been manipulated for quite a long time, including various aspects of it's being manipulated in the last 100 years should not be under appreciated, including in the last 30-ish years, there have been more and more financialization of gold and the creation of a variety of new gold paper products.  

Based on bitcoin's attributes relative to gold's attributes, it seems quite a bit harder to manipulate bitcoin - especially since bitcoin is more portable, more verifiable, easier to hold in self-custody, more divisible and quite a bit less costly, so gold's physicality also gets in the way in terms of contributing to costs and contributing to its being manipulated in more ways than bitcoin can be manipulated.

 

I agree with you, yet I doubt it is going to take 10 years for bitcoin's superiority to gold and/or gold's inferiority to bitcoin to be figured out by wider and wider swaths of the populace, and also including institutions and governments to more broadly recognition of bitcoin's superiority to gold.


I would consider "basic knowledge" about whether or not we can invest into bitcoin relates to figuring out whether or not we have discretionary income that can be put into bitcoin... If we have discretionary income then we can invest into bitcoin.  Of course, other basics relate to cashflow management, which also seems to be more important rather than figuring out various details about bitcoin.   Sure, we can look at bitcoin historical charts and see that number tends to go up, but we can also see that number is quite volatile, so basically if we know that bitcoin is quite volatile and it tends to go up, we might well consider that if we invest into bitcoin for 4-10 years or more then such investment may well end up paying off better to have had been invested as compared with someone who had not invested into bitcoin.

We can study bitcoin as we go along, yet our having discretionary income seems to be the most basic thing to know at the time we get started in bitcoin.


A getting started strategy seems to be important, which seems to relate more to either DCA or lump sum buying rather than buying on dip, and surely I would consider a waiting strategy or a buying on dip strategy to be inferior strategies as compared with DCA and/or lump sum buying for anyone who is either brand new to bitcoin (such as a no coiner) or even someone who has been in bitcoin for a while but still hardly has any BTC.. who perhaps is a low coiner.  

So it is likely better for anyone to start to buy BTC and perhaps even to buy fairly regularly, such as once a week, while they are figuring out more of the details about bitcoin and/or regarding how aggressive that they might want to become in their bitcoin accumulation approach.  There are some strategies that are superior, yet sure each person should be attempting to figure out their own ways of going forward with getting started in bitcoin if they have not yet already started.


I don't have any problems with the idea of starting out conservatively, and so if we are merely starting out investing $10 or even $100, then we may well not have to worry so much about protecting it, since it is still a small amount, yet surely the larger it becomes, perhaps after several weeks investing, then we might become more and more concerned about making sure that we protect the amount, including if we might start with a third party custodian, we might be inspired to figure out some ways to employ self-custody.


Most of us who have been into bitcoin or even who are getting into bitcoin may well consider that it is good to learn about bitcoin and to improve our understanding of bitcoin while we are building up our bitcoin accumulation size, yet at the same time, the reality of the world is that only about 1% of the world's population has any price exposure to bitcoin and many folks have failed refused to either look forward into bitcoin and/or to invest into bitcoin.  

Sure, their lack of looking into bitcoin and/or investing into bitcoin is likely going to work to their disadvantage, but it is not like we can necessarily lecture other folks about their being negligent in regards to their own finances, merely because they are likely going to end up losing out.  Sure, we can try to inform folks about bitcoin, to the extent that they might get sparked into looking into it and potentially investing into it, yet it is going to take time to build up the adopters of bitcoin, and surely some folks are learning faster than others, but it is not like the awareness of bitcoin process (and the take action process) can be forced.