Quote from: Churchillvv on April 27, 2025, 05:56:05 PM

Not to create long story! however I did experiment one of my long waited biases yesterday and it did turn out to be some sort of good guess but later failed.

On the basis of AI, I took a chance at Deepseek promoting it to give me a close guess or tips on what team to win football matches yesterday and somehow it gave a good tips with statistics that gave me a chance to be rational in decision making but because of greed and the payout was quite small so I added my own guess to increase the chance of high return and it turnout that my own guess ruined the bet.

Curious to ask, did anyone ever try this out? it could work and also fall.

Today will be the Champions League game PSG vs Arsenal.
Let's see what AI Deepseek can tell us:

I wrote a query with the following content (and I'm very interested to know how well the neural network can give me some kind of clear answer) :
predict the result of today's match PSG - Arsenal (Champions League) based on their previous meetings.

Here is an answer:

Quote

Based on previous meetings and the current form of the teams, the following predictions can be made for the match **PSG vs Arsenal** in the semi-finals of the Champions League on April 29, 2025:

### 1. **History of head-to-head meetings**
- This season, the teams have already met in the group stage: **Arsenal won 2:0** at home (goals by Kai Havertz and Bukayo Saka).
- In previous seasons (for example, in 2016/17), the games between them often ended in a draw: 1:1 and 2:2.
- In total, in 5 matches: **2 wins for Arsenal, 3 draws, 0 wins for PSG**.

### 2. **Current form of the teams**
- **Arsenal**:
- In the last 5 matches: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss.
- Shows confident play in the Champions League: defeated Real Madrid in the quarterfinals (5:1 on aggregate).

- Problems with the squad: Gabriel Jesus, Gabriel Magalhaes, Kai Havertz and others are injured.

- **PSG**:
- In the last 5 matches: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses.
- In the Champions League playoffs, they got past Liverpool and Aston Villa, but with difficulty.
- Fully staffed, no injuries or disqualifications.

### 3. **Stats and trends**
- Arsenal scored **at least 2 goals** in their last 4 home matches against PSG.
- Both teams scored in 2 of 3 head-to-head meetings in the Champions League. - Arsenal have defensive problems, PSG are inconsistent in away matches against English clubs (4 wins, 4 draws, 10 losses).

### **Match Prediction**
- **Most Likely Outcome**: **Arsenal win or draw** (60% of fans vote for the home team to win).
- **Possible Score**: **2:1 or 1:1**.
- **Key Factors**:
- The Emirates Stadium and Arsenal's motivation after a long break in the Champions League semi-finals.
- PSG are weaker away from home against English clubs.

**Conclusion**: Arsenal have a slight advantage, but PSG can play on the counterattack. A tense game with goals from both teams is likely.

Well, it is clear that the AI is trying to analyze well, while trying to take into account all the factors of previous games. But it cannot give any specific answer. I would not trust the AI to decide my bets on matches.
But overall I expected the neural network's response to be much worse.