Quote from: kanftka on May 05, 2025, 01:54:11 AM

Quote from: Cossyblack on May 04, 2025, 09:10:18 AM

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I agree with you, Patience and consistency is really the key for any Bitcoin investor, no doubt. But aside from that, I also believe that having deep knowledge in this space is very important. When an investor understands what is really going on in the market, it gives them an edge.

And honestly, if I’m to advise any newbie investor, I would say try to learn at least the basics of technical analysis. Itreally helps when accumulating because you’ll start identifying key zones where price will reacts. In that way you’re not just buying based on emotions, but making smarter and more calculated entries.
Personally, I prefer knowing the reason behindany market movement, especially during a downtrend. I feel it is way better to buy at good levels with understanding than just jumping in at any price. For instant, this was my perspective of my Bitcoin buying zones/prices all through the dump around 78k to 66k, so i made up my mind to only add to my portfolio when price gets within this prices, and lo and behold price reached 75k before it continued his rally to the upside.

Though right now, i have paused making any investment decisions until after the Fed meeting. Whether they cut interest rates or not will likely determine the next big move for Bitcoin, so i would rather wait and see how it plays out. my own philosophy is something must prompt my investment desicion.

You are brand new to the forum and you are giving advice?

You said that you waited for bitcoin to dip before you got started so you got lucky and you bought some bitcoin, yet the bitcoin price was not guaranteed to dip.

You are currently waiting to buy because you are waiting for more dip.

You are both doing the wrong thing, but you are giving bad advise, since it seems that you do not understand bitcoin.

It likely is the case that any newbie to bitcoin should get started sooner rather than later, and spend a whole 4 years investing into bitcoin on a weekly basis, and then perhaps to reassess at that time, so in the very beginning, there are guys who have various personal circumstances, but they can get started and assess their personal factors as they go, even if they might ONLY start with $10 per week, and then maybe at some point they might increase to $100 per week.

Of course, if they have lump sum amounts that they can invest, they will likely need to consider the extent to which to employ any and/or all of the three buying strategies of buying right away or deferring by DCAing and/or buying on the dip (dips that might not end up happening). Surely if we are talking about an investment timeline of 4-10 years or longer, it is not going to make much difference if they start at $77k, $84k, $95k, $109k or some other prices. It takes a long time to build an investment portfolio, and surely if anyone is getting into bitcoin and they already have an investment portfolio then they will be at an advantage, yet there are so many folks who come to bitcoin and they do not have any other investments, which is a nother justification to get started right away rather than delaying and fuckign around trying to figure out whether or not dip might or might not end up happening.

Quote from: kanftka on May 05, 2025, 03:53:20 AM

Quote from: Gost ms on May 05, 2025, 03:23:11 AM

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I get your point Pal, and you're right that no one can predict the market with certainty. Even the best analysts can only speculate. But I believe that there is a difference between blindly speculating and making informed, data backed speculation. That was why I emphasize on the knowledge.

Faith in Bitcoin is very very important, no doubt. But I think our faith in bitcoin will be more powerful when paired with understanding. Consistent buying works perfectly well, especially if they you are to use DCA. But personally, i will advice we rather accumulate smartly at levels that make sense fundamentally or technically, I’m not trying to time the exact bottom, but I want to avoid buying the top blindly.

If you are brand new to bitcoin, you can get started and you can study as you go. There is no need to lump sum into bitcoin in order to get started... there are also no needs to put a bunch of obstacles in the way, since the main basic thing to figure out before buying bitcoin is whether or not you have a discretionary income. If you have discretionary income, then you are able to buy bitcoin, and your level of knowledge may well affect the extent to which you are aggressive or whimpy.. so there is nothing wrong with starting out more conservatively and then becoming more aggressive as you learn more about bitcoin, yet there is no reason to delay in terms of getting started.

Of course, on a personal level you can choose to do whatever you like, and you are the ONLY one who is going to be responsible for your results, whether you buy too much or buy too little. If you start investing right away or if you employ a waiting strategy, even as a low coiner or a no coiner. Worse consequences for low coiners and no coiners to fail/refuse to prepare for up and to ONLY prepare for down (by waiting), especially newbies have no clue about whether the BTC price is going to go up or down, just like you did not know when you waited for the BTC price to go down to $78k, yet since you got lucky and you were able to buy at $78k, now you think that you know about bitcoin merely because you got lucky by waiting. That is called gambling rather than investing, and hopefully people realize that bitcoin is an investment, not a trade or a gamble.. but yeah, a lot of normies do not know about bitcoin, and that is part of the explanation for why we only have less than 1% of the world's population invested into bitcoin.

Quote from: Wind_FURY on May 05, 2025, 05:28:52 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 05, 2025, 01:19:20 AM

Quote from: ejikeme24 on May 05, 2025, 12:02:24 AM

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You have to remember that even a guy who puts 10% of his salary into bitcoin, it will take him 10 years to reach 1 year of his salary invested into bitcoin. I consider 10% reasonable if your discretionary income can tolerate it.

There are folks who are investing into bitcoin at much more whimpily than 10% per year.. so it is going to take them a while to reach over-accumulation status, perhaps even more than 20 years.

With the right opportunity, a person can position himself/herself into a large Bitcoin investment that will neither affect him/her psychologically too much in case the position goes against him/her, because he/she knows the probability of going lower is very low. But that comes merely with luck, and timing.

Those opportunities come during bear markets, and if they do come during your lifetime, be absolutely sure to use a LARGE of your savings, then purchase as much as you can afford during the succeeding months.

But during the current phase of the cycle, just DCA with a small amount. The size of the investment won't bother you completely and make you emotional/panic sell.

Hopefully you (and other newbies) are not overly employing waiting strategies when you should be buying BTC persistently, consistently, regularly, ongoingly and perhaps even aggressively. You have to figure out your aggressiveness level and perhaps how much of your allocated bitcoin buys to hold back for dips. I have already mentioned several times that I had suggested that newbies should not holding back with any more than 25% of their authorized bitcoin buying amounts for buying on dips. So if they have $100 per week that they have authorized themselves to buy bitcoin, then they should use at least $75 to buy within that week, and they can hold back $25 for buying on dips and to set their buy on dip parameters within ways that they consider reasonable for their personal fincial and/or psychological circumstances.

Newbies (and probably you too Wind_FURY) should not be trying to figure out the extent to which there might be a bear market coming or not, yet at least you, Wind_FURY, have been buying bitcoin for 9 years, so at least you probably have already accumulated bitcoin, as compared with guys who are still in their first whole cycle of BTC accumulation who likely need to stay focused on ongoing and persistent buying of bitcoin rather than fucking around trying to figure out if a bear market is coming or not.

Quote from: Zaguru12 on May 05, 2025, 08:37:42 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 05, 2025, 01:19:20 AM

You have to remember that even a guy who puts 10% of his salary into bitcoin, it will take him 10 years to reach 1 year of his salary invested into bitcoin. I consider 10% reasonable if your discretionary income can tolerate it.

There are folks who are investing into bitcoin at much more whimpily than 10% per year.. so it is going to take them a while to reach over-accumulation status, perhaps even more than 20 years.
Of course, bitcoin price performance can help them, but if they were only investing 1% of their salary into bitcoin, it would take them 100 years to get 1 years salary invested into bitcoin... so it can be questionable if some whimpy levels of investing are going to be enough to get to overaccumulation status. Of course, any investment into bitcoin is better than nothing, but it pays to have a bit of an ability to increase our investing aggressiveness, especially for any of us wanting to reach overaccumulation status.

Is it only me that thinks that bitcoin doesn’t have any phase as an overaccumulation phase or status. Bitcoin can never get to this phase because even if you think that bitcoin which you’re holding is enough there is no other options personally to me that will keep your asset safe most especially against inflation other than bitcoin.

You may well have to figure out what overaccumulation status means to you. Yesterday, I attempted to give an example and to describe a situation that I consider to be one way of calculating and/or thinking about reaching overaccumulation status.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 05, 2025, 01:37:55 AM

For example, if you consider that being able to live off of your bitcoin with a perpetual income of $80k per year, then right now, you might consider 17.166 to be the threshold level for overaccumulation status. So if you have 25.166 BTC, then you would have 8 BTC in your overaccumulation amount, yet if you are barely at 17.166, you might feel that you don't have any cushion... so there can be comfort in regards to having a cushion, and maybe if you only have 17.166 BTC, then maybe you might consider spending one more year accumulating bitcoin and then to reassess your level of overaccumulation at that time...

So even if you assessed that you reached overaccumulation status, you might not be comfortable to start to sell any of your BTC until you are sure that you are ONLY selling from within your overaccumulation amount and you are not accidentally taking yourself out of overaccumulation status based on your sales of too many BTC too soon. Each of us has to make these kinds of assessments and to try to protect ourselves from making a mistake of selling too many BTC too soon, especially if our goal might be to try to keep ourselves in overaccumulation status rather than putting ourselves back in a situations where we feel that we have to accumulate more BTC in order to either get to overaccumulation status or to make sure that we are in overaccumulation status, in case we might not be sure of our own assessment and/or the level of our cushion.

You are not going to live forever, and so if you think that you need to accumulate thousands of bitcoin and then take them to your grave, that seems a bit of a crazy way of thinking about bitcoin to accumulate it, but then not to benefit from your having had accumulated it?

Quote from: Zaguru12 on May 05, 2025, 08:37:42 AM

The only phases of accumulation I think we have is maybe two; aggressively accumulation phases and basic accumulation period.

You make no sense. You sound like someone who is just thinking in the abstract, and if you were to have an income of $40k per year, and you were accumulating bitcoin at 25% of your income or some other high amount, after 4 years you would have had accumulated the equivalent of your income, and maybe if bitcoin does a 10x in price, then you have reached a status that you can withdreaw from your bitcoin an equal amount of your income and live perpetually on $40k without having to work for it... and let's say that you do not withdraw any of you bitcoin and you accumulate for another 4 years, so then you have 8 years invested into bitcoin which is $80k invested into bitcoin, and if bitcoin had happened to have had done a 10x then you have enough investment to double your income with an ability to draw $80k per year without working (which is twice your current income level). Sure you can think of scenarios that you want to accumulate more, but at a certain point you might conclude that you have enough or more than enough because you can stop working and earn the same or even double your current income by living off your BTC.

What are you going to do? Live in a fantasy in regards to your wanting to continue to accumulate bitcoin even though at some point, you should be able to assess that you have enough or that you have more than enough. Of course, I personally like to assess bitcoin value using the 200-WMA rather than spot price, so I personally would consider being able to withdraw your target income level off of your BTC investment once the 200-WMA reaches 10x or more higher than your target income level.

Quote from: Zaguru12 on May 05, 2025, 08:37:42 AM

For me whenever you’re starting to invest into bitcoin and you’re yet to get your one year salary invested into bitcoin then you should seriously consider aggressively buying with 10% to 20% of your salary and once this phase passes then you can simply start buying basically like a reduce portion of your salary should then be used to buy and then buy more during dips.

There is nothing wrong with that, but what are you going to do once the 200-WMA is at 10x or even 20x your target income level? you going to keep buying bitcoin when the amount of your contribution is no longer causing your BTC stash to grow at any significant amount. Let's say right now you have 25 bitcoin, yet your salary is only $40k per year, and so on a weekly basis you can ONLY buy around $100 to $200 of bitcoin, yet if you decide to start to live off of your BTC you could withdraw around $6,666 per month, and you can withdraw at that rate forever as long as you manage it well, but instead you want to continue to work and to buy $400 to $1k of bitcoin per month, when you have more than enough to live off your bitcoin at a rate that is 6x to 7x higher than the amount that you are able to contribute forever into the future. Your contribution is not really building your bitcoin any more, but you still want to build it? For what purpose?

In 4 years, if you do not withdraw any bitcoin, then you likely could double your bitcoin withdrawal rate merely based on bitcoin's appreciation during that time.

In other words, bitcoin's value is growing way faster than you can spend it, yet you want to keep adding to it with your meager salary?

Your seeming assertion makes little sense.

Quote from: Zaguru12 on May 05, 2025, 08:37:42 AM

But this also is only when the portion you allocated to buying during aggressive accumulation period is overburdening you or you’re diversifying (which is not my thing except or is to assets like gold only) if not if you’re comfortable with it, my advice is continue buying that way because saving in fiat is seriously a huge loss set to be incurred

Again, you are making little to no sense... At a certain point you accumulated your bitcoin aggressively and then maybe you started to let off and to accumulate bitcoin less aggressively, and so maybe you wait and you are no longer really adding to your bitcoin, so at some point it might start to make sense to start to withdraw from it.. but hey, if you just want to admire it without doing anything with your bitcoin that is your choice.

Quote from: MusaPk on May 05, 2025, 09:27:53 AM

Quote from: ejikeme24 on May 05, 2025, 12:02:24 AM

Though I think it depends on the amount of bitcoin you wish to accumulate and also the amount you're investing with, but i still wonder what will be holding an investor from not reaching the status of overaccumulation before this 15 years. However, i think the idea of buying bitcoin aggressively when you have already reached the status of overaccumulation does not make much sense to me, if i get to the status of overaccumulation i will take it very slowly, i can decide to buy every dip since i have build a very large portfolio. is only those no coiners/ low coiners that is advised to invest in bitcoin without paying any attention to the market fluctuation by using the DcA method, as a no coiner/low coiner and you're hoping to buy every dip definitely it will take some couple of years before you can be able to reach your target. But when you're using the DcA method you won't even consider the market value before investing, and this is going to make the accumulating process keep moving instead of waiting for the market to dip before investing.

How many Bitcoins are enough for a person is a subjective thing. For a person like me who hails from South Asia, 5 Bitcoins will be sufficient but a person living in USA or EU has different criteria of enough Bitcoin.

Once you figure out how much you need, then it is no longer subjective. If you say that you want an income of $20k per year right now, then that would be right around 4-5 bitcoin, like you mentioned, and if you need $80k per year of income starting now, then you need 17.166 BTC and if you have 1 or 2 more BTC, then you have enough of a cushion to feel confident that you are always withdrawing from the overaccumulated amount rather than at any point selling too much BTC too soon.

Quote from: MusaPk on May 05, 2025, 09:27:53 AM

But that's correct that once you are having enough Bitcoins then don't go for aggressive accumulation of Bitcoin because all of us are gathering Bitcoins to achieve a specific target and if you already have achieved that target then just relax. It might be a good point for you to start selling some portion of your Bitcoins to enjoy the result of their hard work .

That sounds correct. Once you reached overaccumulation status, you no longer need to accumulate bitcoin, yet you still might have to figure out how you are going to manage your bitcoin so that you don't sell too much too soon.

Quote from: MusaPk on May 05, 2025, 09:27:53 AM

For no coiners, the best strategy is to start investing from any point and once they start investing they can go aggressive on dips only when they figured out what actually a dip is.

I doubt the going aggressive on dips is a good plan. People are able to go aggressive based on the strength of their cashflow management. Sure anyone can choose to hold back more cash for buying on dips, yet I doubt that it is good for low coiners or no coiners to be holding back more than 25% of their authorized BTC buying amounts rather than buying right away with that money. But, yeah of curse, each person can decide to hold back money for buying on dips, yet I would not necessarily consider that to be a more aggressive style than to just buy regularly based on having strong cashflow management practice.

Quote from: Abbatty on May 05, 2025, 11:34:53 AM

Quote from: MusaPk on May 05, 2025, 09:27:53 AM

Quote from: ejikeme24 on May 05, 2025, 12:02:24 AM

Snip

How many Bitcoins are enough for a person is a subjective thing. For a person like me who hails from South Asia, 5 Bitcoins will be sufficient but a person living in USA or EU has different criteria of enough Bitcoin. But that's correct that once you are having enough Bitcoins then don't go for aggressive accumulation of Bitcoin because all of us are gathering Bitcoins to achieve a specific target and if you already have achieved that target then just relax. It might be a good point for you to start selling some portion of your Bitcoins to enjoy the result of their hard work .

For no coiners, the best strategy is to start investing from any point and once they start investing they can go aggressive on dips only when they figured out what actually a dip is.

Our different targets will determine how aggressive we choose to invest and once you have achieved your investment target I think you should consider securing some profit to help reduce the risk of exposure to market volatility as risk management is also an important part of investment and one of the qualities a good investor.

As for me I don't think investing and accumulation ends, even after achieving my investment goal and probably taken profit I will just have to rebalance my portfolio and set a new target probably higher than the previous one and accumulation continues.
At that point some would consider diversifying into other investments. Our goals are different.

If a guy with around a $60k per year income had spent the last 9 years buying $200 of bitcoin per week, then he would have had invested $94k and accumulated 24 bitcoin. Surely, he would be in a position to stop working and to be able to live off of his bitcoin, and to draw $80k to $100k or more from his bitcoin accumulation on a regular and sustainable basis, since his 24 BTC would be worth more than $1.1 million at the 200-WMA and currently nearly $2.3 million spot price. There should be no reason that the guy has to continue to work if he does not want to, so he has options.. He has the option to diversify too, and that is one of the great aspects and advantages of reaching overaccumulation status.. .options in regards to how to treat the overaccumulated amount of BTC.

Quote from: livingfree on May 05, 2025, 08:00:59 PM

Quote from: Tonimez on May 05, 2025, 07:15:28 PM

In bitcoin accumulation, any attempt to sell and buy back implies Trading/Gambling. No real bitcoin investor would love to test trading at the first place. Selling off your bitcoin to buy back is crazy because you may end up either not buying back because the price is not dropping to your taste or you buy lower coins which also leaves you at loss. Bitcoin investment is a long term journey and should be held jealously for long.

It's okay if someone does some trading test as long as he'll do everything to get back the sold Bitcoins. But it's hard to do that when psychologically, you just don't want to do it anymore because the thinking is that you still have some left.

But we're free to gamble/trade if that's the term there.
Because we have different goals and focuses while we're all holding but the main goal, is to hold for long term goal and see the historical peaks for Bitcoin.

This thread is about investing and not trading.. so sure guys might choose to trade (in other words gamble), but it is not really a topic for this thread.

Frequently, I suggest to not trade bitcoin since it is a bad idea, yet there might be guys who cannot resist trading/gambling, and so I frequently will suggest that they don't trade any more than 10% the size of their bitcoin investment, and yes it can be difficult to resist the temptation, but if they can at least limit the amount, they will likely see that trading is not likely to be even close to as profitable of merely buying and accumulating bitcoin, especially after a couple of cycles or more.

Otherwise your point about the long term seems to be correct in the sense that it can take a long time to build a bitcoin investment, even if we can attempt to focus on building our bitcoin holdings through various buying techniques.