Yeah, but even though so many folks get caught up upon BTC spot prices, I think that you are only creating more confusion for yourself it you are valuating your bitcoin holdings based largely on spot price considerations, even though at any moment that you buy or sell, you will be using BTC spot prices, yet at the same time, if you consider the 200-WMA (bottom prices), then you should be able to manage your bitcoin holdings in a way that is less herkey jerkey, since hopefully, most of us are not planning to sell all of our stash at once, but instead more likely to shave off portions of our stack over time.

By the way, prior to March 2020, I was using $1 million as entry level fuck you status, and so I still had not figured out my formulas for withdrawing at 10% annually rather than withdrawing at 4% annual based on the spot price.

But if I back-test in accordance with my own formulas, then we could take a look at how the formulas might have played out at various times.. which I am proclaiming that the number of bitcoin needed continues to go down with the passage of time.

So prior to March 2020, it could have had been asserted that we needed an income of $40k per year to reach entry-level fuck you status, and so here are the entry-level fuck you status amounts based on the 200-WMA:

In mid-2016, with spot prices at $677 and 200-WMA at $319 we would have had needed 1,254 bitcoin in order to maintain a $40k per year income

On December 17, 2017, with spot prices at $19k and 200-WMA at $1,219 we would have had needed 329 bitcoin in order to maintain a $40k per year income

On December 13, 2018, with spot prices at $3,300 and 200-WMA at $3,167 we would have had needed 127 bitcoin in order to maintain a $40k per year income

On March 1, 2020, with spot prices at $8,540 and 200-WMA at $5,431 we would have had needed 74 bitcoin in order to maintain a $40k per year income

Of course, many of us likely realize that in March 2020, many of us should have come to realizations that the world of money is much more fragile than we might have had previously imagined, which is part of the reach that I changed my own perception of entry level fuck you status from having an investment portfolio at $1 million to having it at $2 million, which means an ability to draw annual income off of that amount at $80k per year... Therefore, from here on out, I started to consider that being able to draw an income of $80k per year was entry-level fuck you status.

On April 1, 2020, with spot prices at $6,672 and 200-WMA at $5,572 we would have had needed 144 bitcoin in order to maintain a $80k per year income

On April 1, 2022, with spot prices at $45,528 and 200-WMA at $20,832 we would have had needed 38.41 bitcoin in order to maintain a $80k per year income

On January 1, 2024, with spot prices at $42,208 and 200-WMA at $29,808 we would have had needed 26.84 bitcoin in order to maintain a $80k per year income

Today, with spot prices right around $104k and 200-WMA at $46,939 we would need 17.044 bitcoin in order to maintain a $80k per year income

Of course, if you reach some kind of an overaccumulation status, you can choose to cash our more BTC at various price points in which the spot price is much higher than the 200-WMA in order that you are not drawing from your BTC when the spot price is at bottom prices and closer to the 200-WMA... .. and so if you are drawing from your BTC when the spot prices are higher, then you are reducing your quantity of bitcoin is not being depleted as fast and your quantity of bitcoin will justify higher withdrawal amounts into the future.

Part of my point that should be worth reiterating is that if we are measuring fuck you status from the 200-WMA rather than spot price, it is quite likely that the quantity of BTC that we need to achieve entry-level fuck you status is continuing to go down with the passage of time... It does not go up and down, unless we might systematically choose to make some adjustments to our withdrawal amounts in order to attempt to help our managing of our funds to be more efficient and/or effective.


Based on contents of my post, I think that you are getting distracted if you are using BTC spot prices to valuate your BTC holdings and/or to valuate the extent to which you may or may not have had reached an overaccumulation status... since if you use spot price then you will go in and out of overaccumulation status based on spot price movements, which I personally consider spot price to be a bad measure, since we should not be considering ourselves to be going in or out of overaccumulation status merely based on changes in the spot price.   

I will grant that sometimes it might be unclear whether or not we are in overaccumulation status, and so each of us likely has  to figure out how we are going to measure whether we reached such status and then once we have made such an assessment we have to figure out how we are going to deal with our having had reached such overaccumulation status...and so hopefully any adjustments that we might make should not be bringing us out of overaccumulation status, otherwise we are likely making the wrong assessments and we likely have to figure out ways that we are able to sustain ourselves in overaccumulation status, otherwise we likely have not actually reached such status (at least not in a sustainable way).


Generally speaking it takes a long time to invest even a year's of your own salary into any investment whether bitcoin or otherwise, and surely if someone were investing 25% per year, it would still take 4 years to invest a whole year's of his income into bitcoin..  We cannot know exactly how many bitcoin we can accumulate in any given time, and we cannot even know for sure if a quantity of 4.5 bitcoin will be able to support a $40k per year income in 3 years, yet we can still attempt to make our estimates both in terms of how fast we are able to accumulate bitcoin and also try to expect where the BTC value will be at various points in the future, and we do not even need to be exactly right, but instead hopefully directionally correct, since we also may well be needing to make various adjustments to our expected timelines, so it is helpful to have flexibilities in our timeline, too... when possible.

Historically, there surely have been some folks who have overperformed expectations and other people who have underperformed expectations, so if we are not setting our expectations overly high, then our odds of reaching and/or exceeding our expectations becomes greater and greater, yet surely we may well have to tweak our expectations as we go in terms of what we had been able eto carry out and then the unknowns in regards to how the BTC price might continue to perform over the years to come... including my own preference to use the 200-WMA as a means to measure valuation and to attempt to guide us in our bitcoin management practices.


You should not be getting caught up on overly ambitious bitcoin accumulation approaches, since you are correct that even in 3-4 years, a guy with a $40k salary may well not be able to accumulate more than 0.5 BTC in that time, even if he might be spending 25% of his income to accumulate bitcoin, so if he is already on a trajectory to get to having 4.5 bitcoin in 3 years, he might already need to have 4 bitcoin or more in order to try to be realistic about where he is at and where he is expecting to be in 3-4 years.


Surely, we were not talking about guys who have a $40k income and they are currently starting from zero, but instead guys who might have any level income  and they are striving to get to a point of having a $40k per year income from their BTC within a 3-4 year timeline.  Guys have to figure out their numbers and try to be realistic about it... and many guys will have trouble even investing anything more than 10% per year into bitcoin, yet surely there could be some more aggressive ones who are able to figure out ways that they are able to invest 25% of their income into bitcoin per year.


I am not going to presume that the bitcoin price is going to drop... sure it might, but we should not be making our plans based on things that are out of our control.. Yet, each of us should be able to figure out how much of our income that we can put into bitcoin and then therefore how much bitcoin we might speculate that we are able to accumulate through our various accumulation strategies.

If we are new to something, we also might need to be more measured in terms of working our way up to a certain budget, and so hopefully we are not making large mistakes in our ways of calculating how much bitcoin that we might be able to buy or even that we are not making mistakes in regards to other aspects of our cashflow management and various back up funds that we also might need to build and/or maintain.