Please don't just read the title and hear me out as I couldn't think of anything better and shorter at the same time.
I have had a debate with someone about the martingale system which we both know it's failure but with adaptation and low bets low revenues, compared to simply straight betting for the favorite. The talk was about choosing top tier team from each football league and keep on betting in a side by side experiment for the entire championship.
Luckily for me it seems like the
statistics are available , so I want to give it a try on past records for some like 5 teams, a straight bet on win, a bet on win or draw, and a martingale system with a cut loss at 5.
Do you think any of the strategies would have worked this season?
Which teams should I consider? My choice were Inter, Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea, Bayern, Real, Barcelona and PSG but those are way too many!
I think backtesting it with real data can actually yield some good insights. The martingale strategy is hazardous but adding a cut loss cap like 5 rounds does make it a bit more feasible, For straight bets or win or draw top consistent performers would provide you higher outcomes I’d say reduce it down to maybe Inter, Real, Arsenal, Bayern and PSG given they’ve been somewhat solid this season. Chelsea might not be perfect due of their inconsistency. It’ll be great to watch how each strategy adds up over time.