Have you ever tried keeping a record to compare the two? And what did you find, which one’s actually more profitable?
It’s easier to pick which team will win, so most people go for the moneyline. But the odds can kill your profit, since the favorites usually have really low payouts. So then you start thinking about betting on the point spread, where the payout is more balanced.
But are we really doing that kind of comparison? Or are we just betting based on gut feeling following our instincts without even knowing if we’re actually winning in the long run?
If you watch a particular team regularly(I'm talking NBA) then you kinda get a feel at how good they will do vs certain opponents. Like OKC this year. They covered the spread over 60% of the season, If you were martingailing just them to cover the spread you would have come out pretty good over the whole season.
https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/trends/ats_trends/If you check the link you will see that 7 or 8 teams would have made you money with that strategy.