Quote from: yahoo62278 on May 15, 2025, 09:44:37 AM

Quote from: Ziskinberg on May 11, 2025, 11:45:21 PM

Have you ever tried keeping a record to compare the two? And what did you find, which one’s actually more profitable?

It’s easier to pick which team will win, so most people go for the moneyline. But the odds can kill your profit, since the favorites usually have really low payouts. So then you start thinking about betting on the point spread, where the payout is more balanced.

But are we really doing that kind of comparison? Or are we just betting based on gut feeling following our instincts without even knowing if we’re actually winning in the long run?

If you watch a particular team regularly(I'm talking NBA) then you kinda get a feel at how good they will do vs certain opponents. Like OKC this year. They covered the spread over 60% of the season, If you were martingailing just them to cover the spread you would have come out pretty good over the whole season.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/trends/ats_trends/

If you check the link you will see that 7 or 8 teams would have made you money with that strategy.

Even in the season before that, they had a solid ATS record.

But Martingale? Easier said than done. It's actually pretty tough to just focus on one team and keep using that method. For me, it’s not even fun. I want to win and enjoy the process not feel like I’m grinding a spreadsheet. And about OKC, sure, they looked great this season. But if I follow those stats into next season, there's no guarantee they’ll hit over 60% ATS again. Trends change, and so does luck.