Quote from: pooya87 on Today at 04:54:25 AM

I'm not so sure about it anymore.

One thing we've learned in the past couple of years, specifically after the COVID19 pandemic, is that global economic uncertainty and recession has a significantly negative effect on bitcoin price. Today we are in the most destabilized and uncertain global economic conditions in decades. With growing tensions and the wars (economic or otherwise) that the US regime has been starting, things will only become more destabilized and uncertain. In such conditions, chances of seeing a major bitcoin bull run are smaller.

Most possible trends in my opinion, are smaller rises and smaller bull runs (eg. reaching $200k). Not anything major like we had in 2017 for instance (ie. reaching $1 mil).

For sure the economic and govt instability/chaos/madness of the US starting in 2025 is not good for Bitcoin. Investors like stability.

Anyway I think it seems clear the old 4 year market cycle is over now anyway. Long gone are the days of 2013/2017 bull runs. After 2017 when most people found out about Bitcoin, and then watched it crash in 2018, the average person is now too scared to jump into Bitcoin when it goes up. The "but it always crashes" mentality is there. Anytime I talk to someone about Bitcoin post-2018 they say either "it always crashes" or "it's too late I missed it". So there's no more giant bull runs with blow off tops where millions of people are flooding into Bitcoin all at once. Now for people to get into Bitcoin it is generally going to be because they each individually finally did their research. It's a much more gradual process of people educating themselves, rather than a flood of new people chasing hyped up quick gains.

But that's for retail. Obviously institutional players, still quite new to Bitcoin, are the ones driving the growth. I think, as long as the lunacy in the US doesn't lead to a global depression, we should generally see annual growth in Bitcoin now, instead of the boom/bust 4 year cycle. Plenty of volatility, dips and pumps and sideways and whatnot, but no giant year bull market.

Like you say, smaller rises and smaller bull runs. Like we've already seen the past few years. $15k -> $30k then stall for a while, then to $35k then stall, then to $40k's and stall for a bit, then the ETF launch brought it to $70k+ then stall for a while, then hype around US bitcoin reserve brought it $100k+ but then that hope dimmed for at least the time being combined with the new US admin economic chaos so it's stalled again now. I expect this sort of dynamic to continue in the coming years. Gradually going up in this fashion.

So yeah rather than a super cycle, I think it is better described as simply no more boom/bust 4 year cycle now. Smaller ups and downs on something closer to a half-year timeline. With Bitcoin moving up a leg once or twice a year in general, either from big institutional adoption events or simply when resistance breaks after months of sideways. I could see $200k being reached maybe in 2027 if the global economy survives the politics going on right now, after 3 or 4 more of these once-every-six-months-or-so pumps.

Of course major institutional adoption events could speed up or enlarge these pumps. Like say is US actually passes that 1M bitcoin reserve bill (or if several other nations announce bitcoin reserves), or if one of them trillion dollar companies announces they are switching to a bitcoin treasury, or something like that.

Hyperbitcoinization, or the "gradually then suddenly" idea, is a myth people tell themselves to get excited. We're looking at a couple decades of gradual growth to a mature and normalized market as local/regional/national govts adopt Bitcoin reserves, companies adopt bitcoin treasuries, and TradFi investors adopt Bitcoin through ETFs, while the general public slowly educates itself and starts saving in Bitcoin, growing the general public adoption a few percent each year. No more miracle years, and not likely to be any sort of massive super cycle. Just gradual adoption as Bitcoin is out of its early years and now has the long probably couple decade slog of going from new player in finance to respected mature asset.