Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

It's annoying to look at substantial buys that trigger a ton of sells as soon as barely touching $112k right now.
A bit more momentum and shorts would be eaten up in a short while.

Eh it's just the weak hands shaking out at 111k.

HODL.

Question is..why there are those "weak hands" at a seemingly irrelevant value of 111K? A rhetorical question.
My "proposed" local top of, hopefully 216K, might occur if and when MSTR joins SP500, which could be in September.
Interestingly, there was a local top (the first in the double hump in 2021) when Coinbase IPOed.
Some people started talking about $444-475K (or 0.444-475M Grin

), but for now this seem a bit excessively optimistic.

Well we wrestle under 109 k from jan 20 until a ay or two ago.

111k is clear better than 109k

and they got in at 74k on the correction a month or so ago they are now up exactly 50%

1.5 x 74 =111 so my guess is they are simply taking profits from the dip buy.

if they grabbed 10 coins at 74k they paid 740k if they cash 8 of them they get 888k and not have 2 free BTC plus a few worthless dollars after taxes.

Say 30k cash after tax and 2 coins.

They can now wait for a dip to get more.

Or hodl the 2 "free" coins and wait for price to go way up say 250 a coin.

It is hard to turn down sure winning moves if they arise.

Not a winning move, imho, as it is very short-sighted.
EDIT the scenario Nick is proposing in a clip below (a supply squeeze and a spike) is actually quite possible:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0A58iIfsyBE

but it is not certain.

what I described is a certain win

with all taxes paid
30k cash
2 btc

for letting the 740k purchase made a month ago ride for 30-40 days.

so in addition to the profits above

you also have you complete investment sitting where ever.

Many players make this type of move 1 or 2 times a ear if they can.

It is safer and is a certain win

They can do whatever they want with the 30 cash and the 740k cash principal.

I am not clear on your math and tactics.

In your scenario, they would have short term cap gains of 888-740=148K. Even if you pay 50% tax (which could be the number in NY and NJ), it is still 74K in after tax profit, not 30K.
Additionally, this scenario is kind of backward looking: if someone had the guts to buy the dip at 74K and with gusto (740K), I would assume that they would go for something more substantial than 50% (especially during the last year of a bull market). The fact that you call the trade "safe" is that ONLY because you know the current price of 111K and nothing else.

That said, it could (underlying the possibility) be a good trade IF we would have a dip to, say, 85K or so soon.
Personally, I try to avoid trades like this, or at least make them very small and doing them just for "fun".