Quote from: philipma1957 on May 22, 2025, 10:14:30 PM

Quote from: Biodom on May 22, 2025, 09:36:15 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on May 22, 2025, 09:09:04 PM

Quote from: Biodom on May 22, 2025, 08:58:59 PM

Quote from: lightfoot on May 22, 2025, 08:48:04 PM

Quote from: OutOfMemory on May 22, 2025, 06:43:43 PM

It's annoying to look at substantial buys that trigger a ton of sells as soon as barely touching $112k right now.
A bit more momentum and shorts would be eaten up in a short while.

Eh it's just the weak hands shaking out at 111k.
HODL.

Question is..why there are those "weak hands" at a seemingly irrelevant value of 111K? A rhetorical question.
My "proposed" local top of, hopefully 216K, might occur if and when MSTR joins SP500, which could be in September.
Interestingly, there was a local top (the first in the double hump in 2021) when Coinbase IPOed.
Some people started talking about $444-475K (or 0.444-475M Grin

), but for now this seem a bit excessively optimistic.

Well we went under 109 k from jan 20 until a day or two ago.
111k is clear better than 109k

and they got in at 74k on the correction a month or so ago they are now up exactly 50%
1.5 x 74 =111 so my guess is they are simply taking profits from the dip buy.

if they grabbed 10 coins at 74k they paid 740k if they cash 8 of them they get 888k and not have 2 free BTC plus a few worthless dollars after taxes.
Say 30k cash after tax and 2 coins.

They can now wait for a dip to get more.
Or hodl the 2 "free" coins and wait for price to go way up say 250 a coin.
It is hard to turn down sure winning moves if they arise.

Not a winning move, imho, as it is very short-sighted.
EDIT the scenario Nick is proposing in a clip below (a supply squeeze and a spike) is actually quite possible:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0A58iIfsyBE

but it is not certain.
what I described is a certain win

with all taxes paid
30k cash
2 btc
for letting the 740k purchase made a month ago ride for 30-40 days.

so in addition to the profits above
you also have you complete investment starter money of 740k sitting where ever.
Many players make this type of move 1 or 2 times a year if they can.

It is safer and is a certain win
They can do whatever they want with the 30 cash and the 740k cash principal.

You are likely correct that a lot of folks trade bitcoin in the manner that you are saying, and many of them are similar to you in terms of hardly having any bitcoin, so they end up being long term losers because they end up selling way too much too soon with their ideas of locking in dollar profits.

Remember just over 10 years bitcoin has returned around 444x in profits from $250 to $111k. Very difficult to even come close to matching that with piddly trades and the piddly trades do not end up getting the compounding profits.. doubling upon doubling upon doubling..

Quote from: Biodom on May 22, 2025, 11:08:37 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on May 22, 2025, 10:14:30 PM

[edited out]

Additionally, this scenario is kind of backward looking: if someone had the guts to buy the dip at 74K and with gusto (740K), I would assume that they would go for something more substantial than 50% (especially during the last year of a bull market). You call the trade "safe", but it is that ONLY because you know the current price of 111K and nothing else. It was certainly not safe at 74K.

Philip is frequently living in a fantasy in terms of calculating numbers that make trading seem way more profitable than it is, and the reality of the matter is more like his own pathetic situation in which he is rarely hanging onto any coins, so he does not get the benefits of long term compounding, even if he fucked up a lot, he still should have been able to build a stash that could have had been less than $9k per bitcoin, so he could have had profits on paper of at least 12x, rather than whatever fucking around that he has been doing with trading. I doubt that he is even close to 12x in profits. ..

even if we use the 200-WMA, he would be over 5x in profits and of course could even be in a position to figure out some kind of a sustainable withdrawal if he were to want to be drawing income from his bitcoin.. which yeah, I personally think that 16.837 BTC is currently the threshold level to be enough to sustain an $80k per year income.