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He compares the Mar-a-Lago accord with the Plaza Accord from 1985.
I never understood why people compare these two together. It just doesn't make any sense.
In the Plaza Accord, US regime was still considered a superpower and they basically ordered Japan and others (which heavily depended on US to survive) to increase the exchange rate of their fiat to save the US economy.

Today with this silly Mar-a-Lago nonsense, US regime is barely a regular power and they cannot order anyone to do anything let alone China (which unlike Japan does not rely on US to survive) to increase their fiat exchange rate.

Quote
He makes a compelling argument for Bitcoin to 4x at least over the next year as its use continues to change as the world economies reset.
There is a global conflict going on (Tariff war is part of it) and it causes instability and uncertainty. It is also causing recession that is deepening every day. Bitcoin can not go through a massive rise under this circumstances based on what we've seen ever since 2020 (COVID caused similar disruption and prevented big rise; NATO-Russia war caused similar disruption and prevented a big rise as well).

Going up to something like $200k is more realistic IMO unless there is a significant change (eg. heavy interest rate reduction, a massive dollar value dump, hyperinflation,...).
Original archived Re: Mark Moss discusses the future of Bitcoin
Scraped on 23/05/2025, 10:42:57 UTC
He compares the Mar-a-Lago accord with the Plaza Accord from 1985.
I never understood why people compare these two together. It just doesn't make any sense.
In the Plaza Accord, US regime was still considered a superpower and they basically ordered Japan and others (which heavily depended on US to survive) to increase the exchange rate of their fiat to save the US economy.

Today with this silly Mar-a-Lago nonsense, US regime is barely a regular power and they cannot order anyone to do anything let alone China (which unlike Japan does not rely on US to survive) to increase their fiat exchange rate.

Quote
He makes a compelling argument for Bitcoin to 4x at least over the next year as its use continues to change as the world economies reset.
There is a global conflict going on (Tariff war is part of it) and it causes instability and uncertainty. It is also causing recession that is deepening every day. Bitcoin can not go through a massive rise under this circumstances based on what we've seen ever since 2020 (COVID caused similar disruption and prevented big rise; NATO-Russia war caused similar disruption and prevented a big rise as well).

Going up to something like $200k is more realistic IMO.