It seems that anyone who is a beginner investor such as anyone who is a no coiner or a low coiner, is better to get started as soon as possible, and surely the various macro-factors that you mentioned might be helpful, but the fact that they are a no coiner or a low coiner should be more motivational to get some bitcoin.

Surely the more bitcoin a person accumulates and with the passage of time, then there might be reasons to discontinue accumulating bitcoin or to move away from ongoing, persistent, consistent, regular and perhaps aggressive buying of bitcoin, so each person has to figure out when he has reached a status of having enough bitcoin or more than enough bitcoin in order that he might change his bitcoin management and/or accumulation strategies.

There is a large portion of the world's population who are no coiners and/or low coiners, so a lot of these folks should be accumulating bitcoin through buying and at any BTC price.


Fair enough to assert that there are many people, especially in the west or in middle class income locations, who are capable of investing and/or saving more than they do, and they are not choosing to do it.


For sure there are different kinds of income levels, and folks who are really poor are frequently struggling for any kinds of luxuries in their lives and they are forced to live within their means potentially with very little discretionary income..and some of them might be able to increase their income or to decrease their expenses, yet at the same time, they might have little to no room to work with in order to be able to invest and to be able to keep their investment for 4-10 years or more... so they may well be left without being able to invest unless they are able to increase their discretionary income and to be able to maintain their discretionary income so that they do not end up having to tap into their investment at a time that is not of their own complete choosing.

In this particular case, I was just using $100 as an example to compare the two and there basically being no difference. For the second part, maybe I didn't express myself clearly but I bolded it now. I have addressed this by saying that the primary difference or benefit is that having these two things completely separate protects you from having to sell BTC at the wrong time. This implies that I don't necessary expect it to hold its value. I have been in this situation before, not having built up enough savings ahead of time and then having to sell stuff at bad prices. Well, I sold some shitcoins instead of my precious BTC. But still it is a lesson that must be learned so that it does not happen again in the future with something more valuable such as BTC.
[/quote]

I can appreciate that learning from past mistakes will help to both recognize the issues and the balances, and perhaps help us to establish better practices, and frequently poor people will fail/refuse to establish a large enough emergency funds (back up funds) because they are trying to "put all of their extra money to work," and even if rich people engage in similar kinds of erroneous thinking, right people will tend to have more ways that they can end up getting bailed out when the screw up (they may well have various kinds of funds or alternatively friends/family who can help them in their cash short-falls).

Poor people need to have better cashflow management (and back up funds) systems in place that also may well involve building up and keeping money that seems to not be working, but the backup money is serving a purpose to keep them from having to sell any of their BTC at a time that is not completely of their own choosing.. and it also allows them to buy bitcoin more aggressively when they know that they have the good cashflow management (and back up funds) systems in place... and yeah, for you in the shitcoin-using example that you gave, perhaps your shitcoins ended up serving as emergency funds, yet surely it is not a very good situation to have shitcoins serving as emergency funds, since they may well might have not been holding their value very well at the time that they end up needing to be used.
 

You are likely categorizing this poorly and even stating these cashflow management and back up fund matters in ways that are absolutes, which truly is not the case, since there are various ways to manage cashflows and even various amounts of back up funds that can be kept, so any amount that anyone has for emergency funds is better than nothing, and sure of course, it would be better to have 3 months of emergency funds rather than 3 weeks worth, and it would even be better to have 6 months worth if an emergency ends up lasting 6 months or longer, yet at the same time, there need to be attempts to be practical. 

I have heard of examples of guys struggling to build up 6 months of emergency funds, and they are constantly attempting to build up and/or replenish their emergency funds to keep it up to 6 months of their expenses, and the emergency funds are depleting in value faster than they can keep adding to them, and so sometimes it can be too much to ONLY have money in emergency funds without having any money that is working, which is part of the reason that there is good rationale to build up the bitcoin investment at the same time that the emergency fund is being built up and perhaps some reason that there can be some difficulties in regards to keeping emergency funds that are greater than 3 months of expenses.. and I am not proclaiming to know the answers in regards to reaching these balance, since guys who have lower levels of discretionary income are going to likely have greater difficulties in regards to both investing into bitcoin and also getting their emergency funds to be at least 3 months of their expenses.. so if we presume at some point, even the poor persons with low levels of discretionary income might reach a point in which he has invested more than 3 months of expenses into bitcoin, then surely at that point, it would seem likely that he would also have achieved getting his emergency funds up to 3 months of his expenses.. but yeah if his discretionary income is failing to increase and his income might not be increasing and may be decreasing and his expenses might be increasing, so  then he continues to struggle, even though maybe he had reached a level of both strong cashflow management and also having had gotten a decent stash of bitcoin as compared with his otherwise struggling to keep up his finances and his cashflow management.


Don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good. Guys should keep working on matters, and surely if their emergency fund is way smaller than their bitcoin investment, then they are going to have to put more priority into building up their emergency funds, and the same is true if the opposite is the case. If their emergency fund is much larger than the amount that they invested into bitcoin, then they have some leeway to be able to invest more into bitcoin.  Of course, guys might struggle to figure out how to balance correctly, and surely if they end up screwing up, they are going to be the ones to suffer from their screw ups, so they should have personal well-being incentives in place to make sure that they are not overly screwing up and/or fixing areas in which it appears that they might be inclined to screw up based on poor balances.
 

It seems to me that an emergency fund can be too big, and there is no reason for such emergency fund to be larger than the bitcoin invested amount, and the emergency fund likely does not need to be larger than 3 months of expense, especially once the bitcoin invested amount gets up to 3 months or greater.  Surely if a guy wants to maintain other back up funds besides the emergency funds, then he is at liberty to do such, and most likely a guy who already anticipates inconsistencies in his income and/or his expenses, he may actually need to keep larger quantity of back up funds merely to deal with such fluctuations and/or inconsistencies in income/expenses.

Additionally many of us likely realize that one of the main justifications of even building up an emergency fund is so that we are able to protect our bitcoin investment, so if we do not have much if any bitcoin investment, then it seems somewhat inconsequential or a waste of resources to build up an emergency fund..

Many of us likely realize that Emergency funds are tending to be maintained in our local currency, and so it could well be the case that we are ongoingly replenishing the emergency funds based on ongoing loss of value of our local currency, so there may be some portions of the emergency funds that might be kept in other currencies, such as in the dollar, yet at the same time, if we are building up emergency funds of 3-6 months or more and we do not have any investment such as bitcoin, then that seems like too much emergency funds that are not really serving any meaningful purposes.
 
 

At least you recognize the "opportunity costs" point, and yeah, hopefully you are also trying to consider these matters in gradations rather than attempting to argue absolutes, while at the same time, guys have to figure out their balances in regards to cashflow management, back up funds and/or how they are going about their bitcoin investment, and these balances should be attempted to be tailored to their own financial and psychological particulars.


You are sounding pathetic.  To the extent that you are being honest in your disclosures, you are admitting that you fucked up several times already, and you made the same mistake in 2020 and in 2022/2023, and you seem to be inclined to want to make the same mistake today, since you seem to fail/refuse to recognize that for anyone who is a low coiner or a no coiner, there is a need to buy bitcoin and to continue to buy bitcoin in order to be adequately and/or sufficiently prepared for UP.  You are not prepared for UP if you have no bitcoin, and you are inadequately prepared for up if you don't yet have enough bitcoin,

so the best time to buy bitcoin was yesterday, yet the second best time to buy bitcoin is today.  You cannot go back to yesterday, so you better start buying bitcoin today.   

You seem to be caught in the ongoing dilemma of saying that you are considering buying bitcoin tomorrow, yet like Alice in Wonderland, tomorrow never comes.^**

**“The rule is, jam tomorrow and jam yesterday—but never jam today.” “It must come sometimes to 'jam today,' ” Alice objected. “No, it can't,” said the queen. “It's jam every other day: today isn't any other day, you know.”  Lapham's Quarterly


I see almost nothing productive in crying over spilled milk.  Yeah, sure you could have had done better in the past, but you also cannot turn back the clock.  You can ONLY start to invest based on today's conditions, and to figure out how you are going to go about your bitcoin investing without letting the past screw you up in regards to what you should be doing today.

There are a lot of people who have heard about bitcoin, and they continue to fail/refuse to act, and so if you are getting to a position where you are starting to act, then you are in a much better position than around 99% of the world's population that still fails/refuses to start to buy bitcoin.

Sure, none of us really know about your own particular financial and/or psychological circumstances, yet hopefully for your own good you are able to both invest into bitcoin and to build your cashflow management practices to such a level that you will be able to invest as aggressively as you are able to into bitcoin without overdoing it... if you overdo it and screw up, then you are the one who has to pay the consequences, so you need to figure out your own correct balances.


Well that is good.  At least you bought some, and so if your error is that you were overly whimpy in your historical bitcoin investing tactics, then you are not the ONLY person who is guilty of having had employed such whimpiness. There are plenty of whimpy bitcoin investors and there are also guys who have had gotten distracted by trading and/or by shitcoins, so hopefully you are not making those kinds of mistakes, too.


Even if we look as if Bluedrem might have had started investing into bitcoin in 2020, yet even from his description, it is difficult to know the extent to which he might have had started investing into bitcoin in early 2020 or late 2020, since bitcoin crossed $9k to $10k in the beginning of 2020, but then it had a sharp correction down to $3,850 in March 2020, and even though it got back to it's pre-crash prices fairly rapidly, by the end of May it was back into the $9ks, yet did not really break above $10k until October 2020, so there were quite a few opportunities throughout 2020 to buy bitcoin in the $9k to $10k prices.

Let's just say that Bluedrem was able to get started in bitcoin in May 2020, and even if he might have had started out at $50 per week, then by now he would have had invested nearly $13k, and he would have accumulated nearly half of a bitcoin.   Surely not a bad place to be, and maybe overall around 8.4x in profits, and surely if he was able to lump sum or front load his investment at around $10k-ish, then currently, he would be close to 11x in profits, yet we still cannot be presuming that Bluedrem might not have had screwed up at various points along the way, and so it can be difficult to figure out what he would have had done, especially since he initially implied that he did not invest into bitcoin, but then later he proclaimed that he ONLY invested whimpily into bitcoin.. so all of those are products of his personality, so in some sense, who gives any shits about what he might have had done, since what he did remains his own reality, even though we might point out how some DCAers might have had attempted to play their investing strategies into bitcoin.

Of course, getting into a mindset of investing 4-10 years or longer, and even considering that a guy might need to take some time to build up his investment, and even if he might be able to front load portions of his investment into bitcoin, it may well still end up being the case that he still spends 4-10 years or longer just to build up his amount invested into bitcoin to be 1 year of his expenses (or better yet, 1 year of his income). ..and surely we can even see that some form of aggressive and/or frontloading into bitcoin could have also brought him a long way in the past 5-ish years to perhaps been able to get 8x to 11x profits depending on how the various amounts might have had been invested over the years.


We all make mistakes, yet there are still questions regarding what to do about our mistakes.  Lament over them or learn from them? 

Yeah, I know that guys will have tendencies to make some of the same mistakes and not learn from their mistakes, even though they say that they are learning, and I also understand that it sometimes can take quite a bit of effort to make various adjustments in our habits... so each of us has our actions from today and no ability to turn back the clocks to fix our past mistakes, even though we might be able to still act from today in a way that is attempt to account for our learning from our past mistakes.

There has never been anytime you want to buy bitcoin that it would be cheap or of low price. Not buying today means you buy at higher stress whenever you choose to buy. Procrastination is a thief of time and there will always be reasons to postpone your investments. Every bitcoin price is a dip as and every ATH would someday be a sort-after dip. I can still remember bitcoin at 63k, how unrealistic the price looked and today, that 63k is closely impossible for bitcoin anymore. The earlier you buy, the better. If you like, wait until tomorrow, maybe you could be lucky enough or regret the more.
[/quote]

It is likely bettable in regards to sub $80k never being reached again... sure it is possible.  In early 2024, I had personally suggested my own belief that the bitcoin spot prices were not going to come within 25% of the 200-WMA until after calendar year 2025, and so far I have been correct, even though there have been a couple of times that the BTC spot price got close to reaching the 200-WMA, and so the 200-WMA continues to move up with it being close to $48k right now, and so 25% higher than the current 200-WMA would be $60k - which surely makes some of those quite low numbers seem possible, even though the 200-WMA continues to move up, and it sure could end up being the case that the 200-WMA ends up touching somewhere between $75k and $100k by the end of 2025.**  At the same time, it seems that any guys who are still accumulating bitcoin, are likely better off to just be accumulating bitcoin from our current prices rather than concerning themselves with dips that may or may not end up coming. 

**I will point out that currently the 200-WMA is moving up around $55 per day, and surely for the 200-WMA to get into the $75k to $100k range by the end of the year, we likely would end up needing to see BTC spot prices exceeding $280k, which seems like quite a high place to get to since it is an additional 2.5x from here. 

There may well be a certain level of BTC accumulation that transitions a guy from ongoing buying into one who strategizes buying dips, but it is risky to transition into that kind of a practice prior to reaching a certain level of BTC accumulation, and each of us are likely to determine the level at which we can transition into buying dips at different levels, and some guys will make wrong determinations that result in their not accumulating bitcoin in a prudent and/or sufficiently aggressive way.  No one here is going to rescue other guys from their mistakes even though we can share ideas regarding what we believe to be reasonable ways forward with bitcoin accumulation and/or bitcoin portfolio management practices.