First, let's stop with the AI-generated images, they are just stupid and low quality, I can get a 3yo to draw something more meaningful

Quote from: 20Bet on May 23, 2025, 10:34:33 AM

Now, let me share with you my simple tip on how I play: Let’s say Real Madrid plays a weaker team and the odds for them to win are 1.50. That means a $100 bet returns $150, or a net of $50 profit. Most bettors say, “That’s not worth it”. But if Real Madrid wins 80% of the time, the true bet probability is 80%, and not only 66.7%.

Classic mistake I would not expect from somebody who actually represents a bookie here, here is how it actually goes down:

Quote from: stompix on May 26, 2025, 09:39:46 AM

Since OP never updated this with another team ,I did took Bayern for a spin:

Bundesliga has 34 matches, Bayern has drawn 7 games, lost 2, so a win of 25-9, which is already pretty bad as you would need at least 1.33 in winning odds just to make it even, an this get worse, in 25 games betting on the Bayern you would have won 6.45 to 25 and lost 9, so constantly betting this season on Bayern would have ended with a -2.55 loss to a $1 bet.

First, Real had a 75% strike rate, second, in all the games Madrid has an average well below 1.5 and as it happen,s the higher odds are the ones they lost, like against Barcelona, so the strike rate is not only below 3/4 but it also in below 1.5 region, meanning that you will need higer strike rate to make up for the lost and more rewarding odds.

In my example with Bayern, there is this clasisc event where Bayern wins 6 matches in a row but at odds of 1.12 or 1.15 or even 1.03 , then one draw and you lose more than you make in 6 games.