Quote from: d5000 on Today at 03:08:43 PM

The interesting question is of course here if Bitcoin can eventually fulfill the role of a "safe haven". I think most agree currently it seems to not be one. Volatility is still to high even if it's declining over time, and above all people are still very scared of crashes and dips. The long term bullish tendency is there but it could break eventually.

The crucial idea here is to take away risks which currently impede Bitcoin's stabilization.

My take again is that it could be a safe haven if it was used slightly differently: first, it should be better distributed, and second, it should be used in less speculative ways.

Better distribution would make it unfeasible for governments to ban it or regulate it too harshly, and that takes away one of the biggest risks for Bitcoin's price. Who would dare to ban Bitcoin if let's say 15 or 20% of your population uses it, and you depend on their votes? Some countries already achieved that mark.

A really well usable 2nd layer, be it an improvement on Lightning or a sidechain, would enormously help with distribution. With on-chain activity only, there's a bottleneck for onboarding much more people, and I guess that many of the ~300 million Bitcoin users today are using it via custodial wallets or simply hodling/trading on a CEX.

Regarding speculative usage, HODL & DCA is already better than "trying to ride the bullish waves". But the best, most stabilizing kind of usage is the usage as a currency.

Quote from: Smartprofit on May 25, 2025, 10:25:07 AM

At the same time, I do not rule out that Bitcoin is more decentralized than it seems. It is quite possible that the Chinese Communist Party has found some secret way to secretly mine Bitcoin. North Korea and rich Arab states are probably mining Bitcoin as well.

Just according to Hashrate Index, around 20% of the mining power still comes from China. They used to hide as "German" nodes in older stats (because Germany is a hub for VPNs) but in the Hashrate Index map it seems to identify them correctly. I also think that 35% of the mining power located in the US is still not problematic, if there was a problem the consequences would be less harsh than what we already experienced in 2021's "China ban".

It seems to me that Bitcoin volatility is a direct consequence of the fact that not all 8 billion people on planet Earth have realized its value and significance. When all 8 billion people realize the significance and value of the first cryptocurrency, then its price, in my opinion, will stabilize.

If 200 countries, plus all the largest world corporations, plus all the rich people (Americans, Asians, Europeans, etc.) simultaneously become Bitcoin holders and miners, then the Bitcoin network will be decentralized enough.

Yes, at the same time, Bitcoin will not be "people's money". It will not be directly used to buy essential goods. But Bitcoin will have the opportunity to become a full-fledged protocol for transferring value in virtual space, the main world reserve asset and the basis of a new financial system.

It is quite possible that in the future, digital fiat money of states, shares and bonds of corporations, tokens giving the right to own a share in all world assets will be issued on the basis of Bitcoin. That's why I call Bitcoin a decentralized protocol for transferring value in virtual space. If the whole world is going to be digital, there will be a need for such a protocol. Because Bitcoin is more than just money.