Sure, investing into bitcoin and even reaching overaccumulation status tends to be a product of both time and also how much we are ongoingly putting into bitcoin, yet even if we had not yet reached overaccumulation status, the passage of additional time could put our bitcoin holdings over such threshold and into overaccumualtion status.
Let's say for example a person with around a $50k per year income had been investing into bitcoin fairly aggressively for 7 years at a rate of about $200 per week (which is about 21% of his income) between the beginning of 2017 and the end of 2023.
By the end of 2023, he had invested right around 73.2k into bitcoin (which is about 1.5x his annual salary) and he had accumulated nearly 10.6 BTC,
and so he was feeling pretty good about his bitcoin investment, yet
in early 2024, he knew that 10.6 BTC would only support an income of about $31.6k per year, and his goal was to achieve an annual income of $80k per year from his bitcoin and to be able to adjust such annual income upwardly every year in order to account for the anticipated (and likely inevitable) cost of living increases (dollar debasement).
In January 2024, he would have had needed to have 26.84 BTC in order to sustain an income of $80k annually, and so he was faced with a choice to keep accumulating and/or to just let the time pass, and perhaps this guy was starting to feel that he was not getting as much bang for his buck by continuing to put $200 per week into bitcoin, so he decided to put most of that $200 somewhere else and to just let the time pass. Sure he could continue to buy bitcoin, but he also does not need to buy bitcoin in order for the likelihood that the passage of time will bring his 10.6 BTC up to an amount that is close enough so that he can sustainably live off of it at his target income rate. Of course, you may have had recognized that personally, I prefer to suggest that guys continue to buy bitcoin rather than to just let passage of time play out yet each guy has to figure out the extent to which he believes that he is getting enough bang for his buck in regards to continuing to invest into after he had already invested quite a bit and the BTC price had appreciated a lot or if he might use his income in other ways.
At the time of this post (nearly 17 months after his January 2024 assessment),
his 10.6 bitcoin would give him an income of about $50.5k per year, which surely is more than what he would have had been able to get in January 2024, and
right now in order to have a sustainable income of $80k per year, he would need at least 16.781 BTC, which is right around 10 BTC fewer than the 26.84 BTC that he would have had needed in January 2024.
So surely he could have had continued to accumulate bitcoin, yet at this time, his merely holding his bitcoin is coming up in value faster than he would have had been able to accumulate it, even if he were to have had continued with his fairly aggressive approach of using 21% of his income ($200 per week) to continue to accumulate bitcoin in the past 17 months.
I agree that his stash is not even quite at the threshold level to start to withdraw at $80k per year, yet it seems quite likely that even if he does not accumulate any more bitcoin, within a couple years 10.6 BTC will be enough to start to withdraw at $80k per year.. but at the same time, he also might want to get to deeper into overaccumulation status before he starts to withdraw any BTC, which also could justify either accumulating more bitcoin and/or just waiting an additional amount of time in order to create a greater cushion. These are somewhat individualistic determinations, even though there could be some commonality that guys might start to feel that they are justified to start becoming less aggressive in their BTC accumulation, so the guy could also slowly reduce his investment amount too from $200 per week to $100 per week to $50 per week, yet many of us also likely recognize that the mere maintence of $200 per week over 7 years was enough to reduce the $200 per week in size since $200 per week is not worth as much in 2024/2025 as compared to what it was worth in 2017 when he first started investing at that rate.
I believe the above scenario best highlights just how crucial it is to have patience in one's accumulation journey, and of course to always prioritize being strategic when making decisions that concerns one's Bitcoin investment. The guy in the above scenario was aggressively accumulating Bitcoin for 7 years, and this made it possible for him to actually accumulate quite a sizable and significant amount of Bitcoin over the years, but unfortunately, he fell short of his target income goal. Indeed, it's personal to decide whether to continue accumulating Bitcoin (even after already having quite a sizable amount of Bitcoin) or to stop accumulating and just let time pass. And this is often where some investors usually have problems, they fail to realize it even after reaching a fuck you status and this makes them to still continue accumulating even after reaching a point where they should just stop. In order to avoid such scenarios, it's important to prioritize one's financial goals and of course, risk tolerance, because these are the major factors that influences the decision to continue accumulating or to stop accumulation.
In my above example, the guy is pretty lucky since he is so close to his target ONLY after 7 years of investing into bitcoin, and surely part of his luck comes from his own creation, and surely he can afford to either lessen his ongoing contributions to his bitcoin investment or even to discontinue buying bitcoin, and each contribution towards adding value to his portfolio is not really making very much of a significant difference to his timeline in terms of reaching his threshold fuck you level or even a bit of an overaccumulation status if he might feel better if he might get to 10% or 20% higher than his threshold overaccumulation level in order to have a bit of a cushion prior to starting to withdraw from his stash... so based on his already decent stash he already has a lot of options 1) continue to contribute a) at the same rate or at a higher rate to continue to make progress towards his goal or b) at a reduced rate 2) stop contributing and let time pass for his holdings to reach his goal 3) begin to withdraw at a sufficiently reduced rate in which the holdings are still growing faster than the withdrawal rate. Of course, the 3rd option will end up prolonging reaching the target withdrawal rate the most out of the options, and the continued contribution options within option 1 will contribute towards getting to the goal faster, even though perhaps there would not be major differences, even in the above example of continuing to withdraw at $200 per week, after a year or two investing at that rate, there still may only be around 0.1 BTC to 0.2 BTC added to the holdings at most.. and sure 10.8 BTC is greater than 10.6 BTC, but the percentage of the portfolio is not very much larger in order to make a lot of differences in terms of timeline or substantive impact on life, so maybe such person might reduce his weekly contributions or maybe ONLY buy BTC on dips in the coming couple of years.
With the above example, we can see that even without further accumulation or additional investments, the value of the already accumulated Bitcoin could still significantly increase with the passage of time, and this time factor happens to be one of the biggest and most powerful tool when it comes to growing one's wealth overtime.
We see that largely most of the difficult work has already been done, and the whole journey becomes easier because maybe it is less focused on ongoing BTC accumulation, but instead transitioning into management and/or maintenance of the bitcoin holdings. So even if there might not be goals to increase the BTC stash, there also might be goals to not allow it to reduce and there can be variations of the goals that are created that are much less focused on using a lot of fiat ($200 per week) to ongoingly accumulate bitcoin.. and so maybe even the prior $200 per week that was being used comes into part of the spending budget, so the guy is already feeling better to have an additional $200 per week to spend, and he is not really prejudicing his bitcoin investment since his bitcoin investment is largely established at a sufficient level, even if not exactly over his threshold of overaccumulation.
Yes, from time to time, it's possible for an investor's financial goals to evolve and that's why it's always crucial for investors to always from time to time, reassess their strategy so as to know whether exactly they should potentially reduce the amount they invest or just continue their at a steady pace, or even whether they should stop accumulating (that's if they've reassessed their financial goals and realized that they've reached a state of overaccumulation).
If they are reassessing their goals, they are surely accounting for their BTC stash size, and they may well come to a realization that they are making progress towards their further goal in a much more rapid way than expected, so in several senses, they may well consider themself ahead of schedule, and the fact that they are ahead of schedule gives them options that they had not had previously and had not expected to reach such status of being ahead of schedule.. so they can adapt what they are doing based on their weighing various other goals that they have outside of pure BTC accumulation.
I believe the most important point to note here is the very thing we've been saying almost everyday on this thread, which is that Bitcoin is a long term game and journey, and in order to win this game and finish the journey successfully, you'll need to pack up some essential kits, which are patience, adaptability, discipline and persistence. One should also try to understand how investment amount, time and the potential for Bitcoin's growth actually interplays because that way, investors has a much higher chances of making even more informed decisions and choosing the right strategy in order to help them achieve their financial goals faster.
If a person has been accumulating bitcoin for 7 years or more, then that person can look back at his earlier bitcoin accumulation journey and see a likely payoff for various actions that he had been taking along the way and perhaps various adjustments that he made during certain timeframes in the past. He assesses his current options based on his past behaviors, yet his circumstances had changed because he had already invested around $75k 1.5x of his annual income into bitcoin, and that bitcoin had also appreciated in value during that time, and if he is looking at the long term and establishing some kind of sustainable withdrawal rate, then he would likely be looking at the 200-WMA rather than spot price, even though whenever he might make his transactions, those transactions are taking place at the spot price rather than at the 200-WMA, to the extent that the spot price might be at least 25% higher than the 200-WMA. So perhaps if the BTC spot price is less than 25% higher than the 200-WMA, then maybe the guy would consider his portfolio (and his options) in different ways than he would as long as the BTC price is greater than 25% higher than the 200-WMA.
One of the additional powers of the guy who had been accumulating BTC for 7 years and with 10.6 BTC is that he can already measure that he could support his own level of income of $50k per year from the current BTC that he has, yet he might not want to start withdrawing from it until he can withdraw at a rate of at least $80k per year, and maybe he wants an additional cushion beyond $80k... He considers that all of his goals are realistic and are within reach, and he also considers that he is not being overly greedy (and not setting his expectations too high). There are some guys who continuously are creating higher and higher goals for themselves, so they never end up pulling the fuck-you lever, but we need not see our example guy in such light. He knows that he can live on an income of $50k per year, and he knows that he can even live on an income of $40k per year, since he had been doing that for the past 7 years (since his income is only $40k once deducting for his weekly $200 investment amounts into bitcoin). So his goal of being able to reach somewhere above an $80k per year income is pretty concrete, and he knows that he would be considerably increasing his standard of living at that point, even though he may well give up his current work, yet he does not even need to give up his current work, if he just wants his bitcoin to supplement his current income or maybe he wants to have more choices in the kind of work that he does, so he might choose to either switch his work or perhaps to significantly reduce his hours of work, if that might be within the options that he might have to execute, either now or options that he might have into the near future.