What about you? How do you make sure the bets you choose have the best probability? Do you rely more on instinct or stats?
The most common way I use is to use the statistics of a football club, so if their performance is good lately then I will trust the club to bet on their victory, and I rarely pay attention to the odds.
The odds will reflect the past performances so if you want to base your bet on the past performances of a team, you can easily see that in the odds as well. Odds are not biased towards its favorite team. It is created based on previous results of the teams and whether people think they have the greater chance of winning.
With the knowledge of their history as well as their current performance will give you an idea what will be their upcoming performance inside the field. Also, you need to know what's going on with the lineup of athletes, the coach among other things.
If you will look at it, it is not only the history nor the current info but also other variables that may affect the team performance such as weather/humidity, change of venue, and others.