How short?  And how far down?

You were posting while the BTC price was in the $103.7k prices, and so is that the bottom or near the bottom, and then how long is it going to take to return to $112k and above.  

You know our ATH from just over a week ago is $112k, not $110k.. and, yeah, sure I think that I get it that these days $2k is a kind of rounding error.  At times in 2022, $2k would have had been around 10% or more, and these days $2k is a wee bit less than 2%.


I will admit that I had buy orders starting around $106k.. so yeah, they are about $3k-ish apart until $74k.. then they go towards $2,500-ish increments.  Even the last dump into the $74ks, my orders were not knocked into the $2,500-ish increments.

I will admit that out of boredom, from time to time, I will thrown in some extra buy orders... so yeah, I suppose any of us can be guilty of "wanting to do something" rather than just waiting... have to do end of the month calculations, too.


Surely, there can be ways to attempt to read the positive out of the situation, and there can be some kinds of feelings like a kid in the candy store when more money comes available.. and I recall having some periods like that in 2013, 2014, 2015 and even into 2016, when I was still considering any extra money to come in would be considered for allocation into bitcoin within the three categories 1) buy right away, 2) defer by time (DCA) and/or 3) defer by price (buying on dips).  

I have kept those same practices that I played with between 2013 and 2016, yet after 2016, I have had more reservations to strictly throw new cash into bitcoin, as I had done between late 2013 and 2016.

Yet, surely in 2022 and 2023, I had two noteworthy incidents that had caused me to allocate new money into bitcoin in the first one with the BTC price dropping below the 200-WMA for extended periods starting with its drop below $20k in about June 2022 and also in the second one I had the pleasure of having to deal with a decently large cash windfall, which ended up going into my structurally adding bitcoin buy on dip orders in which only a portion of them ended up filling.. so the extent to which they did not fill ended up getting folded into available cash.. with my somewhat leaving the matter up to fate.. and at that point in mid-2023, fate had it that bitcoin prices would ONLY drop into the $24ks.. which subsequently caused any of my buy orders below $24k to have had rolled into cash for me to spend.. .and sure that money from those buy orders below $24k was not really liberated until around mid 2024.


In 33 years.. bitcoin is ONLY going to be $1.323 million..

Holy cow!!!!!!

The BIGGEST bear that I ever did witness... unless you meant to say post parity, which then I could forgive you for your blunder.. must be senility kicking in upon retirement.    

By the way, to get post parity from page parity, you merely multiply x 20, which would make your earlier claim of $1.323 million to be $26.46 million, which also might be a wee bit bearish, if we are talking about around a 33 year timeline.

Ok... I did a bit more research, and my current projection of the 200-WMA out to mid 2058 does show as $6,462,443... which does make  a $26.46 million to be more in the ballpark than $1.323 million, yet perhaps more than 25% greater than the 200 WMA might even be more easonable, which would be a little over $8 million.... so that would be my current ballpark call for mid 2058.


Volatility is why we should be striving to use the 200-WMA to valuate our BTC holdings and our projected withdrawal rate.  Yeah, I know that previously you had said that you needed around 5x more than what I would even considerhave had considered to be a reasonable threshold level for passive income in the west, so perhaps instead of the $80k per year that I tend to propose, you may well need something in the ballpark of $400k per year or perhaps you can give a bit morenumber that you consider to be reasonable for your annual income, and of course, with my formula for sustainable withdrawal I consider that bitcoin will outperform the dollar sufficiently well (including using the 200-WMA as your valuation measurement) that you would be able to count on being able to increase your income between 5-10% each year and still your bitcoin will likely continue to grow faster than you withdraw it... So with a 7% debasement of the dollar rate, then on year two $400k would become $428k, on year 3 it would become $458k, etc etc etc.

So if you really do need that level of annualsomething like a $400k per year income, then currently you would need to currently need to have at least 83.48 BTC, which the amount that you need for that level of income is coming down on a regular basis, and so maybe in a few years, you would only need half.. of the amount of bitcoin, so maybe 42 BTC or less, and maybe you would need around 6-8 more years or more for your 20 BTC to work in that kind of a way to support a $400k per year income.   We

In terms of figuring out how many bitcoin we need, we have to go from where we are at rather than projecting too many unknowns, yet the 200-WMA does tend to be amongst the best of the indicators that continues upward and so if it is looking like it is not keeping up, then you can reduce your withdrawal rate, and at the same time, you are the best person to know how much actual income you need on an annual basis and to project into the future... yet I imagine you might also be able supplement your bitcoin income with the income (and the passive withdrawal) from other assets/investments that you might have, too. Of course, the formulas for sustainable withdrawal would be different, depending on the assets that you are contemplating (or that you might have in your total investment portfolio besides bitcoin).

How short?  And how far down?

You were posting while the BTC price was in the $103.7k prices, and so is that the bottom or near the bottom, and then how long is it going to take to return to $112k and above. 

You know our ATH from just over a week ago is $112k, not $110k.. and, yeah, sure I think that I get it that these days $2k is a kind of rounding error.  At times in 2022, $2k would have had been around 10% or more, and these days $2k is a wee bit less than 2%.


I will admit that I had buy orders starting around $106k.. so yeah, they are about $3k-ish apart until $74k.. then they go towards $2,500-ish increments.  Even the last dump into the $74ks, my orders were not knocked into the $2,500-ish increments.

I will admit that out of boredom, from time to time, I will thrown in some extra buy orders... so yeah, I suppose any of us can be guilty of "wanting to do something" rather than just waiting... have to do end of the month calculations, too.


Surely, there can be ways to attempt to read the positive out of the situation, and there can be some kinds of feelings like a kid in the candy store when more money comes available.. and I recall having some periods like that in 2013, 2014, 2015 and even into 2016, when I was still considering any extra money to come in would be considered for allocation into bitcoin within the three categories 1) buy right away, 2) defer by time (DCA) and/or 3) defer by price (buying on dips). 

I have kept those same practices that I played with between 2013 and 2016, yet after 2016, I have had more reservations to strictly throw new cash into bitcoin, as I had done between late 2013 and 2016.

Yet, surely in 2022 and 2023, I had two noteworthy incidents that had caused me to allocate new money into bitcoin in the first one with the BTC price dropping below the 200-WMA for extended periods starting with its drop below $20k in about June 2022 and also in the second one I had the pleasure of having to deal with a decently large cash windfall, which ended up going into my structurally adding bitcoin buy on dip orders in which only a portion of them ended up filling.. so the extent to which they did not fill ended up getting folded into available cash.. with my somewhat leaving the matter up to fate.. and at that point in mid-2023, fate had it that bitcoin prices would ONLY drop into the $24ks.. which subsequently caused any of my buy orders below $24k to have had rolled into cash for me to spend.. .and sure that money from those buy orders below $24k was not really liberated until around mid 2024.


In 33 years.. bitcoin is ONLY going to be $1.323 million..

Holy cow!!!!!!

The BIGGEST bear that I ever did witness... unless you meant to say post parity, which then I could forgive you for your blunder.. must be senility kicking in upon retirement.   

By the way, to get post parity from page parity, you merely multiply x 20, which would make your earlier claim of $1.323 million to be $26.46 million, which also might be a wee bit bearish, if we are talking about around a 33 year timeline.

Ok... I did a bit more research, and my current projection of the 200-WMA out to mid 2058 does show as $6,462,443... which does make  a $26.46 million to be more in the ballpark than $1.323 million, yet perhaps more than 25% greater than the 200 WMA might even be more easonable, which would be a little over $8 million.... so that would be my current ballpark call for mid 2058.


Volatility is why we use the 200-WMA to valuate our holdings and our withdrawal rate.  Yeah, I know that previously you had said that you needed around 5x more than what I would even consider to be a reasonable passive income, so perhaps instead of $80k per year, you need something in the ballpark of $400k per year or perhaps a bit more.

So if you really do need that level of annual income, then you would need to currently need to have at least 83.48 BTC, which is coming down on a regular basis, and so maybe in a few years, you would only need half.. and maybe you would need around 6-8 more years for your 20 BTC to work in that kind of a way.  We have to go from where we are at, and you are the best person to know how much you need... yet I imagine you might also be able supplement your bitcoin income with the income (the passive withdrawal) from other assets too.