What affects bitcoin price is inflation and recession. Inflation affects it positively and recession negatively. The rest (like the tariff war) have no direct effect on it.
🔹 Tariffs = Higher inflation risk → Sticky rates → Less liquidity
If inflation goes up, bitcoin price goes up as well.
I don't think they can increase the interest rates any higher and the recession is already bad. Unless recession gets worse, the balance between inflation and recession will be in favor of inflation.
🔹 China may respond with capital controls or Yuan devaluation
That won't affect bitcoin.
In any case I don't think that is the move right now. They'll just diversify more and export their stuff to the rest of the world and also export to US through proxies to practically negate the effects of tariff war on their economy as much as possible.
🔹 U.S. assets (including BTC) may face outflows from Asian investors
BTC is not a "US asset"! It is a global decentralized money. Asian investors will continue investing in bitcoin like always regardless of the ongoing conflict.
But if the foreign investors in general (Asian, European, etc.) pull out of US economy, the dollar will face a crisis and its dump will significantly boost bitcoin price.