Quote from: sirazimuth on Today at 08:26:27 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 07:14:08 PM

…..I think that the odds are greater than 50/50 for an ATH happening in June and maybe even approaching 60%, yet I am not sure the idea of an ATH in June is quite bettable unless someone were to be quite adamant against it happening and willing to give me odds for their betting against it.

I would also be willing to bet against someone who might proclaim greater than 90% odds of a BTC ATH happening in June. Any of these would be fun bets and not necessary for a lot of money.

Ok Jay, I’ll bite because I was just thinkening in my lil ole decraped brain.
I do believe King Daddy will have a lil old dumpening then the inevitable pumpening because lil ole me thinks that all this anylyzening on this here famous thread matters no more than a ratts ass, because da cornz is gonna do what dee cornz does. Honey badger don’t gaf. Amirite? Perhaps?

I cannot see that you took a side of the bet that I was attempting to frame.

You seem to be more like 50/50 with some inclination towards up... just like me. So your seeming to take the same side of the bet is not bettable. We don't seem to differ enough.

I don't even really want to bet, even though I was trying to describe some examples in which I might be willing to bet. We have to disagree pretty strongly and stick to our guns in order to formulate some kind of a bet.

I also think that most guys would prefer to win, so they are not willing to enter into a bet that they are likely to lose - unless they get favorable odds, such as 10 to 1, 100 to 1, 1,000 to 1 or some other variation of good odds.

I suppose if the question is novel or interesting then that might become bettable too.

Yeah, bitcoin is going to do whatever it is going to do, but we do not necessarily know in advance. With our $112k top from about 10 days ago, the furthest dip that we have gotten so far has been $103,127 - right around 24 hours ago (at the time of this post), which is only an 8% dip, which hardly seems worth getting excited about, and in the last hour or so, we have had price nearly touching $106k.. which is ONLY a 5.5% dip from the $112k top.

I am not sure whether we can read much into various short-term variations on the price, yet it is still both: 1) difficult to see BTC price upward momentum being lost or 2) acknowledgement that BTC prices don't tend to get stuck in top ranges for very long before either breaking further up or stepping down to some more material level (such as greater than 8% - maybe even greater than 12%).

Anyhow when in doubt the momentum remains up while we are in a bull market, until we transition into a bear market, which we likely would not know that we are in a bear market until a minimum of 5-6 months after the cycle top is in.. .which I doubt too many of us would end up being too excited for a $112k top for this cycle.. and we might also be quite a bit shocked by such a $112k top if matters would end up playing out like that.

Quote from: sirazimuth on Today at 08:26:27 PM

Oh this is Sunday
Gotta make that a haiku
I’ll be back shortly…

(Do contractions count as one or two syllables? Asking for a friend)
(Ok nm… already got the answer from that AI know-it-all asshole)

Before you figured it out, I was going to say 1 syllable for a contraction, yet if you needed it to be 2 syllables, then you would need to un-contract it. That would have had been my "off-the-top-of-my-noggen" count-proclamation.

Quote from: kanftka on Today at 08:31:48 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 06:25:38 PM

Quote from: Mahiyammahi on Today at 08:35:46 AM

So market is pushing to it's surface , after The moment James Wynn Gets liquidated $100M.

It cost him $100M and now he's saying buy and hodl BTC in Spot. Don't fade just HODL 🚀

I guess it is good that he is still willing to speak out, yet there should be some humbleness that should come from making BIG public bets, taunting the bears and losing on the public bet... including the dumbness of using leverage.

Hard to grant credibility to someone who loses that BIG in public, including while using leverage and including that Bitcoin remains amongst the best, if not the best of places that everyone and/or anyone (who has a discretionary income) could invest, and Wynn was fucking around with wanting to win even more.

Solid point. Wynn’s $100M loss is insane, a reminder of how dangerous leverage can be. And also making big public bets and losing can definitely shake credibility, now he claims that the corrupt market makers directly attacked him lol

Many of us already suspect that there are a hell-of-a-lot of attempts to manipulate BTC prices, and we also know that sometimes they run out of ammunition and end up getting fucked (even though at the same time, many market manipulators are likely hedging their bets).

Regarding market manipulators going an extra mile to attack him, that may well be true, since I suspect that they like to know large liquidation points, since that would give them some sense of assurance regarding how much fuel is on the line to be able to get the price down to certain breaking point (liquidation) levels. So, he could be correct that some market manipulators were purposefully targeting him specifically as he had taunted them to do, which they did. Hard to feel sorry for such a guy, and likely many folks likely believe that he is a bit dumb for being so public about such a bet - while at the same time some of the guys in this thread had thought that no one really could have had been so dumb to do what Wynn did, so what Wynn did was his own manipulating attempt.

Probably what Wynn did was even dumber than what what Balaji did with his $1 million bet in 90 days in May 2023, and Balaji said that he was just saying that bitcoin would reach $1million in 90 days in order to raise awareness of the perilous status of the fiat/debt based economy.

Quote from: kanftka on Today at 08:31:48 PM

And also him now saying buy and hodl BTC in spot actually circles back to the core principle. This shows that chasing more through leverage can lead to less.

I suppose describing a non-leverage strategy of just accumulating bitcoin might be helpful to show that he does have some reasonable ideas, yet many of us know that actions speak louder than words.. even though many of us already have been following a buy and hold strategy for years.. so
yeah, there is a bit of tension to hear the same the from a gambler.. and so in response we can just say, "well, duh?"

Quote from: fillippone on Today at 11:03:28 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 07:14:08 PM

I think that the odds are greater than 50/50 for an ATH happening in June and maybe even approaching 60%, yet I am not sure the idea of an ATH in June is quite bettable unless someone were to be quite adamant against it happening and willing to give me odds for their betting against it.

I would also be willing to bet against someone who might proclaim greater than 90% odds of a BTC ATH happening in June. Any of these would be fun bets and not necessary for a lot of money.

Ath in June is pretty predictable.
The real question is how much ATH will be an ATH in June.
Because of research.

You are giving higher than 60% odds to it? How about greater than 90% odds? We are saying the same thing if you are coming out in around the ballpark of up to 60%, yet if you are getting higher than 60% then you are more confident than me, and if you are getting to 90% or higher odds, then I may well be willing to take the other side of such a bet. We just have to figure out the numbers.. which might be 0.0001 BTC on my end, but then be 0.001 BTC on your end (or some other variation of such a bet) depending on the assigned odds.. and if you might consider it to be greater than 90% odds, then that would be bettable, yet if you are landing somewhere between 60% and 90% for your odds, then you are just more bullish and/or confident than me.. that is if you might be able to pin yourself down to some kind of a more exact number.. which for me, I tend to be closer to 50/50 for a lot of my ideas, but in this kind of a proposition I am willing to go up to 60%, but at this moment, I cannot drag myself into believing higher odds than 60% at the most..