Yeah but so what?

Aren't you stating the obvious  when you are proclaiming that there are all kinds of possible scenarios?

You have to also recognize/appreciate that some scenarios are more likely than others, and if you are proclaiming 1% odds on something that I believe is closer to 50/50 (like my February-ish bet with WatcheWatChe), then our opinions differ to a great enough extent that it becomes bettable.

Any of us who assign probabilities to various events into the future, we are giving our own opinion in regards to such odds and taking everything that we know and don't know into account, and surely some things we just don't know that we don't know which can affect the probabilities, too.  Surely you are going to likely come up with different numbers than me, and if our spreads become high enough, we might gravitate into bettable territory.

If you are proclaiming that in fact it could be anything, then even if you are theoretically correct, you are acting like an uninformed person off the street who does not have any clues about bitcoin.  Both of us know that you are not uninformed about bitcoin, even though sometimes I criticize you for being too distracted by bitcoin as if it were some mature asset and to be also distracted by macro factors.. so we can differ on some of those ideas and frameworks about how to think about bitcoin and its price dynamics.

There may well be 75% of the WO regulars who are bullish about bitcoin, and even the current poll shows ONLY 4% of respondents proclaiming $110k as the top for this cycle... and sure, the poll might not be completely representative, but still we can get some ideas about directionally how we might feel, yet if we get too much into specifics, then we are likely going to start to argue more, yet our arguments might not even rise to the level of bettable, since we might directionally agree yet not disagree so much about specifics that we would want to actually wager a bet on the extent to which our opinions differ.

Another thing is that we cannot just throw our hands up and proclaim that the future is not knowable and then throw out a whole bunch of numbers in regards to what it could be, so even if you are correct that the future could be any of those numbers, I am not going to agree with your characterization that it could be anything, then if you are telling me that the odds are 90% in favor or 90% against the ATH being reached in June, then I am going to call you a looney and demand to bet with you on what I consider to be your outrageous claims and/or beliefs.

Thus, let's get to the point.  Are you proclaiming extreme scenarios such as greater than 90% or less than 10% so that you and I can bet?

I recall you also sometimes proclaiming that I never have an opinion on anything, and criticizing me for being 50/50 on a lot of bitcoin related matters, which surely I am somewhat guilty of frequently taking such a 50/50 position, yet even when I am 50/50 on some propositions, I still may well be willing to take a bet if someone is claiming 10% or 90% or greater about the same thing that I am feeling 50/50 about.


And "we" got Phil talking in riddles, too.

 

Even though anything is possible, I have difficulties considering anything less than $140k as a top for this cycle, even if the end of the cycle could drag out into the first or second quarter of 2026..  and that would be pretty fucking bearish if we ONLY ended up with a top that ended up being less than $140k and ending in the first or second quarter of 2026.  Holy fucking shit... We have 10s of companies (and even various governments) declaring that they are going to start to buy (and hoard) bitcoin, yet some folks think that supra $200k (a mere doubling from here) is overly bullish and they are having difficulties imagining it... and it seems that if for some reason if the cycle peaks at $140k or less any time before the second quarter of 2026, then surely there must be some really sophisticated fractional reserve practices in progress. since it is difficult to imagine all of the seeming demand not pushing up the price of this actually fixed quantity asset.  And, at the same time, we still have 7 months left in 2025, so quite a bit can happen in 7 months, too... which even $200k seems overly bearish... while at the same time, each of us should be accepting that a wide variety of scenarios could end up playing out... some of the scenarios bullish and some of them bearish.

Yeah but so what?

Aren't you stating the obvious  when you are proclaiming that there are all kinds of possible scenarios?

You have to also recognize/appreciate that some scenarios are more likely than others, and if you are proclaiming 1% odds on something that I believe is closer to 50/50 (like my February-ish bet with Watche), then our opinions differ to a great enough extent that it becomes bettable.

Any of us who assign probabilities to various events into the future, we are giving our own opinion in regards to such odds and taking everything that we know and don't know into account, and surely some things we just don't know that we don't know which can affect the probabilities, too.  Surely you are going to likely come up with different numbers than me, and if our spreads become high enough, we might gravitate into bettable territory.

If you are proclaiming that in fact it could be anything, then even if you are theoretically correct, you are acting like an uninformed person off the street who does not have any clues about bitcoin.  Both of us know that you are not uninformed about bitcoin, even though sometimes I criticize you for being too distracted by bitcoin as if it were some mature asset and to be also distracted by macro factors.. so we can differ on some of those ideas and frameworks about how to think about bitcoin and its price dynamics.

There may well be 75% of the WO regulars who are bullish about bitcoin, and even the current poll shows ONLY 4% of respondents proclaiming $110k as the top for this cycle... and sure, the poll might not be completely representative, but still we can get some ideas about directionally how we might feel, yet if we get too much into specifics, then we are likely going to start to argue more, yet our arguments might not even rise to the level of bettable, since we might directionally agree yet not disagree so much about specifics that we would want to actually wager a bet on the extent to which our opinions differ.

Another thing is that we cannot just throw our hands up and proclaim that the future is not knowable and then throw out a whole bunch of numbers in regards to what it could be, so even if you are correct that the future could be any of those numbers, I am not going to agree with your characterization that it could be anything, then if you are telling me that the odds are 90% in favor or 90% against the ATH being reached in June, then I am going to call you a looney and demand to bet with you on what I consider to be your outrageous claims and/or beliefs.

Thus, let's get to the point.  Are you proclaiming extreme scenarios such as greater than 90% or less than 10% so that you and I can bet?

I recall you also sometimes proclaiming that I never have an opinion on anything, and criticizing me for being 50/50 on a lot of bitcoin related matters, which surely I am somewhat guilty of frequently taking such a 50/50 position, yet even when I am 50/50 on some propositions, I still may well be willing to take a bet if someone is claiming 10% or 90% or greater about the same thing that I am feeling 50/50 about.


And "we" got Phil talking in riddles, too.

 

Even though anything is possible, I have difficulties considering anything less than $140k as a top for this cycle, even if the end of the cycle could drag out into the first or second quarter of 2026..  and that would be pretty fucking bearish if we ONLY ended up with a top that ended up being less than $140k and ending in the first or second quarter of 2026.  Holy fucking shit... We have 10s of companies (and even various governments) declaring that they are going to start to buy (and hoard) bitcoin, yet some folks think that supra $200k (a mere doubling from here) is overly bullish and they are having difficulties imagining it... and it seems that if for some reason if the cycle peaks at $140k or less any time before the second quarter of 2026, then surely there must be some really sophisticated fractional reserve practices in progress. since it is difficult to imagine all of the seeming demand not pushing up the price of this actually fixed quantity asset.  And, at the same time, we still have 7 months left in 2025, so quite a bit can happen in 7 months, too... which even $200k seems overly bearish... while at the same time, each of us should be accepting that a wide variety of scenarios could end up playing out... some of the scenarios bullish and some of them bearish.