Quote from: AlcoHoDL on Today at 04:35:57 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 01, 2025, 07:14:08 PM

[edited out]

I agree. My guess for the month of June is a modest 60% (or thereabouts) odds for an ATH. June just doesn't feel the same, especially since ATH was achieved in May. Last month I just felt (you may call it a gut feeling) that it would happen, as it did. This month is different. I don't get the same vibes.

The odds would be significantly higher if the time horizon is expanded to Q3 or even EOY. But, as you know, I don't really like to bet on such things, so I won't give any numbers.

Let's just say that this year will be a good one for Bitcoiners (even better than it already has been).

I recall that both in 2017 and in 2021, I was thinking that the bull run was not over yet, and by the way, I also thought that in 2013, even though I was still brand new to bitcoin.

In other words, each time I get the sense that the bull run is not yet over, and each time I am pretty much forced to admit that the bull run is over, yet my admission ONLY ends up coming like 6-9 months later after the high had already been in and we are in the doldrums of lots of uncertainty about any return.

Therefore, my question to you concerns what you would consider the odds to be that this cycle extends into Quarter 1 or Quarter 2 of 2026?

Maybe within my question, we can already presume that $112k is not going to be the peak for this cycle, and perhaps we can presume that one of the most bearish of cycles would be a $140k or lower high... ...

Accordingly, there are a quite a few other scenarios if we are tentatively presuming the high price for the cycle would be at least getting above $140k.. at some point.. but then how far does it drag out and are there greater than 50/50 odds that the actual high price of the cycle is reached in either quarter 1 or 2 or later in 2026 rather than being reached in quarter 3 or quarter 4 of 2025.

I think that I am just going to continue to follow my normal system. .whether the high is in quarter 3 or 4 of 2025 or quarter 1, 2 or later in 2026.

I am also not going to suggest supercycle or the end of the cycles, even if the high were to come somewhere in 2026 rather than 2025.

Another thing that I cannot accept as a proposal is that bitcoin is going to suddenly transform into some kind of a stable asset, and so I retain a bit of a presumption of the continuances of blow off tops, even if the blowoff top ends ups getting stifled like the 2021 cycle did.. yet there is a chance that this particular cycle ends up having a blow off top that is greater than the 2021 blow off top based partly on ongoing over supression of the BTC prices, so in some sense it has to catch up to "where it should have had been" (and yeah, I know saying "where it should have had been" hardly makes any sense since we should be imagining bitcoin from the "is" and not from some fantasy "ought.")

One more point of clarification that I would like to make is that I consider the lift off point for the 2017 run to have had been around $250 in October-ish of 2015. I consider the lift off for the 2021 run to have had been around $4,200 in April 2019. For this lift off, I consider the right around $27k price of October 2023. In 2017 we had a total break out of 78x. In 2021 we had a total break out of about 16.5x. So far we have only gotten 4.2x... I understand the idea of diminishing returns, yet I don't consider it unreasonable to expected around 16x or more from this cycle... which would be $432k - which seems to be a lot, especially when I was considering a top of around $333k to make it less likely that we will necessary have to retest sub $100k.. but a lot of this is out of my ass... and I suppose anything between $140k and $432k still seems reasonable.. and perhaps having greater than 30% odds of happening.. and my ongoingly talking about odds for various uppity price ranges almost compels me to get working on my % assignments for various Upside scenarios since I can recognize some differences developing in my current ideas as compared with [ur=https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719593#msg58719593l]my 2021 assignments of upside probabilities[/url].

Quote from: Greyhats on Today at 05:05:07 AM

Smelly poopy pants
Is what he smelled when it soared
Should he have bought more?

#sundayhaiku

Oh my!!!!!

Hopefully you are not referring to any actual person that "we" know.

Since many of "us" should recognize and appreciate that even though whimpy might have had worked in 2015 or earlier, "we" cannot be contemplating whimpiness as a good current practice, which means that being as aggressive as we are able to be without overdoing it is a good practice, even though in 10-15 years down the road, even the "whimpy" buyer of the past few years would still end up doing a lot better than the guy who is just getting started in the future when he could have had already gotten started years earlier.. maybe not 2015, but at least 2021-ish.... I am going by your forum registration date Greyhats..... .