Quote from: Sim_card on June 04, 2025, 05:24:29 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 04, 2025, 04:43:16 PM

This is a slippery slope mindset, especially for newbies, to either slow down in their BTC accumulation or to develop expectations that they are going to be able to sell some of their BTC and buy back cheaper and to be better off by engaging in such a trading approach rather than ongoingly continuing to accumulate BTC until they have had reached enough or more than enough... which surely it could take a couple of cycles before many guys are even close to reaching such an accumulation strategy that selling some of their stash might even become part of their way of managing their bitcoin holdings.

If a guy has a bitcoin investment timeline of 4-10 years or longer, then many times he is still building his investment for 4-10 years, so quite a bit of his investment had not had any time to grow, unless he might have had been able to front load a decent amount of his investment (perhaps by reallocating from other investments?).

I am not opposed to the idea of selling some BTC on the way up and buying on the way down, yet it seems to me that any amounts of BTC that are sold should be so small that they are without expectations of buying back cheaper... From my perspective, even when a guy reaches overaccumulation status, whenever he sells BTC he should not be expecting to buy back cheaper, unless he really has reached a status that he is ONLY selling clearly and unambiguously from overaccumulated coins.. , which I understand is not a clear description of what guys should do or how they should manage their BTC once they reach overaccumulation status, so guys have to figure out these kinds of formulas so that they do not end up in a situation where they had sold too much of their BTC too soon, which has historically been quite a common theme/happening in bitcoin.

I don't know why some people who are into bitcoin investment has more of a profit mindset than accumulating and increasing their bitcoin portfolio overtime and see it grow constantly till they have accumulated their desired amount of bitcoin. Thinking more of profits can mislead an investor in his accumulation stage to the point that he might deviate from being a long term holder to a trader. When you start shaving little profits, it shows some sign of lack of seriousness in you to grow and build your bitcoin portfolio overtime because you are suppose to be increasing it and not decreasing it. You will also reduce the rate of the compounding value of your bitcoin overtime.

I agree with you that when you have reached your over accumulation stage, it is good to buy back whatever quantity of bitcoin that you sold when there is a dip so that you can continue to maintain your over accumulation status overtime, rather than going below your over accumulation status.

I doubt that there is any place in which I asserted that once a person reaches overaccumulation status, then buying back bitcoin would be the way to put them back into overaccumulation status.

The idea of overaccumulation status may well be difficult for guys to understand, since there are ways to sell from within overaccumulation in order to never go below overaccumulation status, especially since historically, the 200-WMA in bitcoin has gone up at least 17% per year , even in the lowest of years, so if you are selling less than the rate that the bitcoin is appreciating, then the BTC is appreciating faster than you are selling it, so therefore you should never go below overaccumulation status.

Of course, if you hardly have any cushion, and you are barely at overaccumulation status, then you might need to continue to buy more bitcoin in order to get to a larger stash, or if you just wait a month or two or even half a year (without buying and/or without selling), then your stash would likely appreciate to a high enough level that you have more of a cushion (an overaccumulation cushion) in order to start to withdraw from your bitcoin at your targeted (desired) rate. Perhaps an example would be helpful, here?

Right now example Let's say that you have a goal to live on $80k per year income from your bitcoin, and you look at the 200-WMA compared with the spot price to figure out how many bitcoin you would need right now in order to meet that objective, and based on the 200-WMA, you see that right now you would need 16.615 bitcoin.

I would say that if you ONLY have 16.615, then you are barely at overaccumulation status, but if you have 17 BTC, the you would have 0.385 BTC extra (beyond overaccumulation status), and you could start to sell from your 0.385 BTC.. so surely it would be good to have more of a cushion so that you never drop out of overaccumulation status, yet if you do not want to accumulate any more bitcoin, then you could just wait a few months, and your 16.615 would be more than enough to start your withdrawal at a rate of $80k per year.

June 5, 2024 example: We can look back historically, and see that last year on this same date, at 22.605 BTC, you would have had needed nearly 6 bitcoin more last year as compared with this year in order to have had comfort in retaining the same withdrawal rate of $80k per year. And, these are measurements of sustainable withdrawal from the 200-WMA valuation and not specifically going by spot price, even though surely the proceeds of your BTC sales would come from sales at spot price and receiving spot price.

Surely if you are nervous and you are not sure if you have enough bitcoin to begin withdrawing at your target rate ($80k per year in my example), then you either don't start withdrawing or you withdraw at a lower rate or you keep adding to your BTC.. and surely sometimes guys might have these kinds of concerns with their calculations since they want to make sure that their bitcoin holdings are sustainable in terms of their target withdrawal rate levels.

June 5, 2023 Example On June 5, 2023, (two years ago), you would have had needed 30.316 BTC in order to have had been comfortable to start to withdraw from your bitcoin at a rate of $80k per year. Hopefully, you can see from these three examples of now versus 1 year ago versus 2 years ago that your withdraw of $80k per year (even if you might withdraw $6,666 per month) would not interfere with your bitcoin appreciating faster than the rate that you withdraw, even though I have proposed some reduction in the withdrawal rates during times that the BTC price is less than 25% higher than the 200-WMA... yet you also might not need to reduce your withdrawal rate as long as you have some level of extra cushion in your holdings (an extra level of overaccumulation, even 20% or more BTC than your target so that you might feel that you have a cushion and that you are always in overaccumulation status).

My ongoing suggestion has been to never sell more than your overaccumulation status to put yourself out of overaccumulatoin status or with an expectation of buying back cheaper, and sure, if you happen to be able to buy back cheaper because the BTC price drops after you had sold, then that is fine, but you should not be making BTC sales with expectations to buy back cheaper unless you are clearly and unambigously only selling from your overaccumulation amounts.. and you don't care if you end up with less bitcoin.

Let's say that right now you have 60% more than the amount of BTC that you need for overaccumulation status, which would be 26.584 BTC (16.615 BTC x 160%). Most likely you would be able to play around with some of those extra (9.969) bitcoin with confidence that even if you lose them some of the extra 9.969 BTC, you are not going to go below your overaccumulation status.