Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 06, 2025, 07:26:49 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on June 06, 2025, 12:18:09 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 06, 2025, 06:04:15 AM

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Another thing is that even if the upward slope of bitcoin's price is likely becoming less steep with the passage of time, bitcoin still remains both the fastest horse in the race and likely going to be beating the fuck out of all other assets, including that within the next 50-200 years it will likely have to get somewhere in the ballpark of 1,000x or more of gold's market cap, whether that is through bitcoin price rising or gold's price falling or some combination of both.

I am not really disagreeing with you, even though you likely realize how much I disagree with some of your being more bearish than what I believe you should be or maybe more loving of the dollar than what I believe you should be... which seems to result in more hedging with the dollar than what I believe to be necessary or within the self-interest of any of us, even an old fart like yourself.. not that you are older than Jimbo.. .. hahahaha.. and I am not even trying to pick on old foggies, since I am plenty old my lil selfie... but I am just picking on nuances of bitcoin versus fiat perspective as it relates to investment portfolio management.

Quote from: philipma1957 on June 06, 2025, 02:37:13 AM

we did 103 and change for june 5 and we arestill hanging in at 101k at the moment.

but June 6 is much closer to a 99,999 close as we are averaging around 101.3 for tha day as of now.

Yep.. we can probably say that was a pretty robust test of $100k.. and sure, it may well not be over... so we will have to see if $100k gets tested again or if we might be able to resume up...

This weekend is "critical" ^tm

I would really like to see price go past 120k and float sideways a bit.

Do you really believe that there are very good odds for something like that?

It seems to me that historically, the main ways that the BTC prices tend to go sideways in the area of a top is if they challenge some top, then they will correct back down 8-12% or more and then go sideways within the corrected location and not from within exactly the top location.

Sure, you might be able to find some exceptions, but I really doubt that you are going to be able to find meaningful and/or representative examples of the BTC price just going up and then going sideways within a top location for very long without some meaningful correction.

Sure, anything can happen, but why should we be describing base cases (or wishlists) that include BTC price dynamics that are not seemingly likely to happen, rather than potentially trying to outline some kind of a more realistic scenario.

For example, if you are expecting BTC prices to get stuck in a $115k to $125k range (yes I am purposefully trying to go broader than your earlier description of a $119k to $123k range), then likely there has to be some move into the mid $130ks and then a correction in that $115k to $125k range rather than just getting stuck in that $115k to $125k range... but yeah, maybe it could be that my own memory is fogged/jaded... .. or I am being overly strict on what might be meaningfully likely based on "this time is different" BTC price dynamics?. .

and yeah, sure every time (cycle or price wave) may well seem to play out a wee bit different than the past cycles and/or price waves, but there still seems to be some level of retention of rhyming with earlier BTC price dynamics.. .which is another reason that none of us should be poo pooing what is likely an ongoing applicability of the 4-year fractal (cycle), even if perhaps there could potentially be some quasi-breaking of such cycle. .and we might even disagree in regards to what constitutes of a breakening of such 4-year cycle BTC price performance dynamics.

So maybe there might end up being some questions regarding how much past $120k would be necessary in order that $120k ends up as a new bottom? I am not going to claim to know exactly, but somewhere in the $135k-ish (or mid-$130ks) seem to be a kind of ballpark area that may well end up allowing $115k to 125k-ish to then serve as a kind of consolidation support area.

Your comment opened my eyes to the following points I find very helpful:
1. Skepticism towards unrealistic expectations.
2. Historical awareness:
3. Probability thinking.
4. Open-mindedness.

I greatly agree with the core of this argument. Bitcoin scarcely forms tops quietly. It's even common if we see aggressive push, overshooting fair value due to momentum and FOMO, followed by a correction.
If we get a range-bound phase around $115k and $125k, it appears much more probable that it follows a quick move to $130ks ern beyond, afterwards cools off to that zone, rather than just topping out calmly.
Which would fit the method of prior cycles where resistance zones often becomes support only after a big move and a retrace