Quote from: mak013 on June 07, 2025, 08:20:12 PM

Quote from: sheenshane on June 06, 2025, 11:10:14 PM

What was written in the book was correct, and that's the reality.

IMO, those who will win against the house edge are primarily relying on luck, not skills, and Taleb doesn’t deny that fact, in fact, being prepared increases your chances of success. What he emphasizes is that even among the prepared, luck still influences outcomes.

Sometimes, equally prepared gamblers achieve very different results due to randomness.
So, while preparation always matters, it’s also important to remain humble and remember that chance often plays a larger role than we realize.

Chance, luck - it is words for short-term games. If we are talking about long numbers - maths wins. You can be "lucky monkey" for a week, month may be. But if you in the game more than a year - it is only skill.
Your brain work, experience, search information skills, etc. On a such distance luck can decrease or increase your win rate for 1-2%, that`s all.

Yes, I think I agree with that. I quoted Nassim Taleb about the lucky monkey just to illustrate the theoretical possibility of such an event. However, in practice, everything is much more complicated. I think it is almost impossible for a gambler to exist who will beat the bookmaker for years, making a significant profit, while having, so to speak, the IQ of a monkey. In general, success is such a rare phenomenon in sports betting that we rather doubt the opposite.