Quote from: coiner8 on May 04, 2014, 11:02:52 PM

Quote from: PilotofBTC on May 04, 2014, 10:24:13 PM

Quote from: coiner8 on May 04, 2014, 10:06:39 PM

So I originally posted this in this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=518602.0;topicseen But of course it was deleted since the pumper is self-moderating the thread.

Has anyone actually received their principal back from this? 20% per month = double your money in 5 months. Madoff promised 0.83% per month using magical arbitrage strategies and the smart people knew that couldn't be real.

What is the total size of the trading fund? If you're doing arbitrage with your $1,000 account I could see a 20% return being possible. But arbitrage opportunities do not scale. There is a limited amount of arbitrage available in the market and lots of people competing to get it. And according to bitcoin-trader.biz they are doing manual trading. How could it be possible for them to get the large amount of arbitrage profits they'd need for those level of returns, especially when they are at a huge disadvantage to automated traders?

Plus they are reporting returns of around 1% per day. That's a 3778% APY when compounded daily (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-yield_investment_program). If they were getting those kinds of returns they wouldn't need to take anybody else's money. 1 BTC invested at those rates in April 2013 would be worth 4,100,974,661,233,895 BTC today. Or you know, 300,000,000 times the total supply of Bitcoins.

I'm calling it: PONZI

And also:

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FYI bitcoin-trader.biz was registered October 2013 (http://who.is/whois/bitcoin-trader.biz). OP [in that other thread] said they started in April 2013, six months before the domain was registered. Maybe they used a different domain, but just something to be aware of.

Also 120 days means once you invest you can't withdraw for that long? Sounds like a way to get lots of people's money, report that they're making lots of gains, but never pay out. Why would you restrict when they are able to withdraw?

You can withdraw your profits daily. Only the original share price is locked for 120 days. Also, you don't get compounded returns. The return is based on the USD amount of the share. Not BTC amount. Finally, it's only per work days that they trade. I'm not saying it's NOT a ponzi, but several of your points are using incorrect info.

None of my information was incorrect. Point by point:

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You can withdraw your profits daily. Only the original share price is locked for 120 days.

That's why I asked if anyone got their principal back. Ponzi schemes can always pay out small amounts as long as new investors are joining. Paying everyone back their full account balance is what a ponzi can't do, and I don't think it's a coincidence that the site follows this pattern. Paying small amounts is a great way to make people think they are actually making money and spread the word. In the real world the ponzi operator would send fake statements (too expensive to write checks every day). In the Bitcoin world it's easy enough to actually send the daily "earnings".

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Also, you don't get compounded returns.

If it were a real fund you would get compounded returns. Any fund manager getting 1% returns per day would obviously reinvest the profits. The fact that the monthly returns reported on the site are the sum of the daily returns shows how fake the numbers are. Imagine you were the fund manager and every day you made 1%. If the fund was 100BTC that means you'd be making 1BTC per day, so that by the end of the month you'd have 20BTC in profits. The non-compounded interest reported by the site means the fund manager would just be letting those earnings site idle instead of reinvesting them. No way would that happen in a real fund. (And yes some earnings are withdrawn daily, but not all of them).

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The return is based on the USD amount of the share. Not BTC amount.

I don't know what this means. Are you suggesting the fund is returning consistent 1% daily returns on your USD investment? Despite the fact that it's a BTC/altcoin trading fund and the price of BTC fluctuates wildly? If the returns are denominated in USD that just makes the whole idea even more ridiculous.

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Finally, it's only per work days that they trade.

Ok, so it's only 2000% APY instead of 3778% APY. And again they claim these absurd returns come from manual trading. In a fully electronic market. That has had aggressive automated arbitraging for years. Right.

In summary: if it sounds too good to be true, it is.

I don't know where you went to school to do your math classes, but you are completely through the roof with your calculations.

Recently they are paying around 20% monthly, I am trading myself sometimes and am making more than 1% per day, but it's very time consuming. Now, we know that they DO NOT offer compounding. Paying 20% a month is in my humble calculations 240% a year or 2.4 BTC if I invest 1 BTC and reinvest after the 120 day term. Not 2000% !!!!!!

Also it is noted that I have withdrawn multiple time my initial deposit for expired shares.