I would ONLY have Phil beat for quantity of posts in this thread... but surely not the overall quantity of forum posts as can be seen by our post count.

I probably have Phil beat in terms of quantity of characters (or words) posted both in this thread and throughout the forum.


Your preaching to the choir on many of those points.  For sure I have frequently suggested that we have been in a bull market since November 2022, and sure we might not have had realized it until either mid or late 2023, but still being in a bull market means that the odds for up are greater than the odds for down (until they aren't), and when the odds for up are no longer applicable (and we transition into a bear market), we might not realize until 4 months or longer after the top is already in, and sure some guys get the message quicker than others, which does not tend to be me..

I tend to deny transitioning into a bear market until denial becomes somewhat impossible, which is a wee bit embarrassing, and I kind of hate to admit (I did it in 2014, 2018, and 2022), including that I am not sure if I might be able to bounce out of such faulting inabilities this time..

I proclaim that ultimately it really has not really hurt me to serve as a lagging indicator, even though each time I had a decent amount of short term suffering that was later reversed due to our going to later all time highs later down the road, such as 2017, 2021 and even this time so far in 2025, it would be difficult to proclaim that I have been long term suffering from the pain that I went through mostly in 2022 and perhaps dragging a bit into 2023.. .which is a similar story for those of us who have been erroring on the side of mostly accumulating and/or HODLing... the February, March, April and perhaps even arguing first parts of May dip to $75k-ish and the quasi-gradual recovery hardly even seems very relevant in the whole scheme of things since such downity quantities did not even go below our 2021 highs or go below our jumping off point in early November 2024.


hahahaha

That's what I'm talking about, Willis!!!!!

I merely needed to average twice as many words as you, and I got you beat in regards to the word-count.  hahahaha.. That is easy peasy.. history speaks for its lil selfie.


In this thread there is a bit of flexibility, yet even historically, I recall when some of us had been playing around with some of the nested posts and even some other  posts in which we were extensively finishing the sentences of each other, and a lot of those posts ended up getting nuked..  It was perhaps in the Lauda days, in which she/he/it (or some other admin) was a bit of a curmudgeon... and it is likely if we fuck around and try to push some limits forum admins/mods might step in to keep us from being too outrageous in our attempts to prove trivial and arguably childish and quasi-irrelevant points...      hahahahaha   


What else is new?


He seems to be nearly incapable of learning new things.  #justsaying


You are likely getting distracted by noise.  There is no real sign that Tether is not backed, and they are quite likely doing better based on their holding a lot of bitcoin too.. including that Tether has had some historical moments of very large runs upon its deposits, and I think that around March 12, 2000 was one of them in which they had 10 billion or more drawn upon them in a few days (or was it around the banking shenanigan times in which Silicon Valley Bank, Signature and Silvergate were all ambushed by Federal choke point 2.0-ers (which would have had been March of 2023), and sure if there would have had been a way to close down Tether, there would have had been plenty of Feds who would have just loved to have had been able to accomplish that.


Of course, signatures do not show up in the WO thread - even though our avatars and the space below our avatars does even show  up in this here lovely WO thread.


If you are waiting for "down before up," don't hold your breath.  You may well be much better off to just keep accumulating for 4-8 years or more without really thinking too much about price.. just stay focused on ongoing, persistent, consistent, regular and perhaps even aggressive accumulating of BTC through buying.

We have already seen Bitcoin price going down to 75k in April 2025 from 106k in Jan 2025. I can't rule out possibility that Bitcoin price may go down from here to any low. But if it goes down, there is nothing to worry about as it gives us opportunity to gather more Bitcoins at discounted rates. We are clear that Bitcoin price will go up in the long run, keep this thing in mind while price goes up or down.

I doubt that it is very helpful to refer to various strategies as if that is important, since it seems a wee bit dumbass to be trying to trade bitcoin or shitcoins in order to accumulate more bitcoin rather than just ongoingly buying bitcoin persistently, consistently, regularly and perhaps even aggressively, especially in the first four years and perhaps longer of the person's time in bitcoin.

I have difficulties imagining very many situations of normies in which they had sufficiently lump sum invested and/or front loaded their bitcoin investment to get enough bitcoin in less than 4 years of accumulating, yet surely determinations in regards to if they have enough bitcoin or more than enough bitcoin are within their discretion to determine.. and even in your case adam.. Unless you have been accumulating bitcoin longer than your forum registration date, I can hardly imagine any scenarios that you would have had accumulated even close to enough bitcoin to be thinking of anything other than ongoing buying.. so I am not really sure what you mean when you are referring to various strategies, since to me it seems that any strategy for bitcoin newbies that involves anything other than ongoing and persistent buying seems like a dumb and/or short-sighted strategy... so sure, maybe you can explain and/or elaborate if you think that either you or someone similarly situated to you would have had been able to accumulate even close to enough bitcoin in around 6-ish months or less, if given your forum registration date might have been the ballpark time in which you first got into bitcoin.


Bullshit.  Bitcoin prices do not follow hashrate.  If you think that they do, you are suffering an allusion related to correlation rather than causation.


It would end up being a pretty low all time high if we ended up having $112k for our high for this cycle.  I would think that the odds are less than 35% for that kind of a scenario.. which sure, 35% is nothing to sneeze at, but seems a fairly minority scenario to the extent that my SOMA^tm assessment matters.


"Always"?  I am not sure about that.  I would say that "I have my moments."  hahahahaha.. yet sometimes, it is can be helpful if anyone one gives such an assessment "a shot" - because trying to figure out where we are at based on from where we came from and considering where we might be going, it tends to not be easy - which surely causes differing assessments in regards to the extent that we consider holding bitcoin to be in our individual interests.

You and I might be in some kind of a similar situation based on our timelines and my understanding of some of your historical posts in terms of how you had concluded to manage your bitcoin holdings over the years... which I understand that you likely were accumulating and selling more bitcoin than me in the earlier years, yet at some point you came to a realization (perhaps an agreement) that selling so many of dee cornz was not as good of an approach as compared with selling them more slowly and letting the process play itself out... so yeah, sometimes it is interesting to consider the situations of other forum members without really knowing with exactitude.. and surely my own claims of having more than 0.63 BTC and also my claims of having an average cost per BTC of $1k-ish might need to be adjusted.  I have been considering that my forward costs might have to go up to $10k per coin.. perhaps.  It still makes the calculations round, but does not create impressions of outrageousness... you know?.. or what do you think about transitioning with $5k costs per bitcoin as a kind of intermediary? 

Any of the $1k through $10k numbers could be reasonable.. .maybe $5k might be better than moving directly to $10k.. but yeah, I know a lot of forum members who are likely claiming average cost per BTC numbers in the $1k to $10k range.  Remember Mindrust's numbers were supposedly around $4k to $4.5k.. which surely would not have had been bad, and even if he had screwed up less than his ultimate screw up, he could have still maintained something in the $6k to $8k range, which would have had been killer as fuck with 10 BTC or even more than 10 BTC, and at the time in 2020, he was acting as if he was small potatoes, yet even back then (in around March of 2020), many of us already recognized 10 BTC or more to be a pretty decent-size stash and not necessarily easy for normies to have had achieved and to have had been able to figure out ways to both build it and then to hang onto them.  Can you imagine... I think that around then we were still talking about entry-level fuck you status to have had been around $1 million (meaning a $3,333 per month passive income from the BTC), and he said that he did not even need $1 million..

Mindrust said that he would have had been quite happy with half of that.. meaning something like a $1,667 per month passive income).  Surely many of us know that by now, 10 BTC, would be entry level to a passive income of around $48k per year, which would be around $4k per month. which would have had been quite a bit more than Mindrust's target level.. ONLY around 5 years later... sure inflation went up in the last 5 years, yet even if we double Mindrust's stated target of $1,667 per month, we still would currently be exceeding that with a 10 BTC holdings.

Surely back on March 12, 2020 many of us did not necessarily appreciate the power of 10 BTC, even though at that time, it still had the power of generating a $5,500 per year passive income, yet surely the levl of the passive income that 10 BTC could generate has gone up close to 9x.


It seems to me that as long as any of us do not sell too many bitcoin too soon, then there are ways to pace our sales in such a way that the value of our bitcoin is likely growing much faster than the rate that we sell it, so in that sense there can be a lot of power in making sure that we have enough and/or more than enough bitcoin, since many income sources for retired peeps do not tend to keep up with the debasement of the dollar and/or the cost of living increases, yet it seems that bitcoin does, as long as we do not end up selling too much of our stash too soon. Hopefully that has been your general experience, without my necessarily needing to outline some hypothetical.. even the Mindrust 10-ish BTC one from my earlier response (above).


It is a little sad that retail is likely going to end up getting reckt this time around since a certain limited number of institutions, governments and perhaps status quo rich folks are likely pumping up the price this time around in the coming months.


I question the feasibility, the playing out and the characterization of any "sideways summer" thesis.


Sure... but giving 90% to 99% odds might still be problematic, even though it might work to say 99% odds that the $74.5k bottom is in, even though it is probably closer to 75% odds, not that I consider those to be bettable, even though I still would be willing to bet that the BTC price will not drop below 25% above the 200-WMA until after 2025...perhaps 1st or 2nd or 3rd quarter of 2026, and it is not even necessary to drop within 25% of the 200-WMA, even though it seems to have had happened every single cycle, so far in bitcoin's history.. and yeah sure of course, we could proclaim that "this time is different," and I am not ready to bet on "this time is different."


Don't get overly anxious, and don't call me a bear.

Sure it would be nice, but we already know that it will happen when it will happen, and at some point it seems that the bears have been holding this bad boy down too much, which may well cause some of us to speculate that the various exchanges and 3rd party custodians might not have nearly as many of the coins as they are claiming to have.

By the way, I have all of the more than 0.63 BTC that I claim to have... even though they may well be spread out in various places, as I have discussed previously in terms of trying to manage UTXOs and not have all coins in the same place.

Anyhow, the individual holders are not the ones who are likely to be fucking around with fractional reserves within terms that might not exactly be clear to us quasi-laypeople trying to figure out what is happening.. what are the obligations and who's policing them when some of them are proclaiming that "proof of reserves" is not necessary... blah blah blah.


Now you are talking, Phil... even though I still don't really consider that settling down is very likely based on how much time we have been fucking round in our current largely $85k to $112k range.. but yeah, sure something like that could end up happening.


Most likely not.

I do agree with you. When the price increases, we will all be excited and happy. But I would also be glad when it reduces so that I can get more with less money.

You two are not alone. Count me in too. Infact their are lot of eyes in queue waiting for 120k.

From the data available so far, most of the big moves always start from Q3/Q4, I don't know if we can call that FOMO.

I earlier stated that the current price action will mess up some people emotions especially the weak hands, I'm glad someone is also noticing that.

$120k+ is sacrosanct in this market cycle. It will even be the least thing to expect but wether it will happen this quarter or next or the last quarter of the year is what is not clear. But my guess is that before the end of Q3, we will be soaring above $120k.

well buddy and i and i will be waiting right here for $120k+