I doubt that it is very helpful to refer to various strategies as if that is important, since it seems a wee bit dumbass to be trying to trade bitcoin or shitcoins in order to accumulate more bitcoin rather than just ongoingly buying bitcoin persistently, consistently, regularly and perhaps even aggressively, especially in the first four years and perhaps longer of the person's time in bitcoin.

I have difficulties imagining very many situations of normies in which they had sufficiently lump sum invested and/or front loaded their bitcoin investment to get enough bitcoin in less than 4 years of accumulating, yet surely determinations in regards to if they have enough bitcoin or more than enough bitcoin are within their discretion to determine.. and even in your case adam.. Unless you have been accumulating bitcoin longer than your forum registration date, I can hardly imagine any scenarios that you would have had accumulated even close to enough bitcoin to be thinking of anything other than ongoing buying.. so I am not really sure what you mean when you are referring to various strategies, since to me it seems that any strategy for bitcoin newbies that involves anything other than ongoing and persistent buying seems like a dumb and/or short-sighted strategy... so sure, maybe you can explain and/or elaborate if you think that either you or someone similarly situated to you would have had been able to accumulate even close to enough bitcoin in around 6-ish months or less, if given your forum registration date might have been the ballpark time in which you first got into bitcoin.


Bullshit.  Bitcoin prices do not follow hashrate.  If you think that they do, you are suffering an allusion related to correlation rather than causation.


It would end up being a pretty low all time high if we ended up having $112k for our high for this cycle.  I would think that the odds are less than 35% for that kind of a scenario.. which sure, 35% is nothing to sneeze at, but seems a fairly minority scenario to the extent that my SOMA^tm assessment matters.


"Always"?  I am not sure about that.  I would say that "I have my moments."  hahahahaha.. yet sometimes, it is can be helpful if anyone one gives such an assessment "a shot" - because trying to figure out where we are at based on from where we came from and considering where we might be going, it tends to not be easy - which surely causes differing assessments in regards to the extent that we consider holding bitcoin to be in our individual interests.

You and I might be in some kind of a similar situation based on our timelines and my understanding of some of your historical posts in terms of how you had concluded to manage your bitcoin holdings over the years... which I understand that you likely were accumulating and selling more bitcoin than me in the earlier years, yet at some point you came to a realization (perhaps an agreement) that selling so many of dee cornz was not as good of an approach as compared with selling them more slowly and letting the process play itself out... so yeah, sometimes it is interesting to consider the situations of other forum members without really knowing with exactitude.. and surely my own claims of having more than 0.63 BTC and also my claims of having an average cost per BTC of $1k-ish might need to be adjusted.  I have been considering that my forward costs might have to go up to $10k per coin.. perhaps.  It still makes the calculations round, but does not create impressions of outrageousness... you know?.. or what do you think about transitioning with $5k costs per bitcoin as a kind of intermediary? 

Any of the $1k through $10k numbers could be reasonable.. .maybe $5k might be better than moving directly to $10k.. but yeah, I know a lot of forum members who are likely claiming average cost per BTC numbers in the $1k to $10k range.  Remember Mindrust's numbers were supposedly around $4k to $4.5k.. which surely would not have had been bad, and even if he had screwed up less than his ultimate screw up, he could have still maintained something in the $6k to $8k range, which would have had been killer as fuck with 10 BTC or even more than 10 BTC, and at the time in 2020, he was acting as if he was small potatoes, yet even back then (in around March of 2020), many of us already recognized 10 BTC or more to be a pretty decent-size stash and not necessarily easy for normies to have had achieved and to have had been able to figure out ways to both build it and then to hang onto them.  Can you imagine... I think that around then we were still talking about entry-level fuck you status to have had been around $1 million (meaning a $3,333 per month passive income from the BTC), and he said that he did not even need $1 million..

Mindrust said that he would have had been quite happy with half of that.. meaning something like a $1,667 per month passive income).  Surely many of us know that by now, 10 BTC, would be entry level to a passive income of around $48k per year, which would be around $4k per month. which would have had been quite a bit more than Mindrust's target level.. ONLY around 5 years later... sure inflation went up in the last 5 years, yet even if we double Mindrust's stated target of $1,667 per month, we still would currently be exceeding that with a 10 BTC holdings.

Surely back on March 12, 2020 many of us did not necessarily appreciate the power of 10 BTC, even though at that time, it still had the power of generating a $5,500 per year passive income, yet surely the levl of the passive income that 10 BTC could generate has gone up close to 9x.


It seems to me that as long as any of us do not sell too many bitcoin too soon, then there are ways to pace our sales in such a way that the value of our bitcoin is likely growing much faster than the rate that we sell it, so in that sense there can be a lot of power in making sure that we have enough and/or more than enough bitcoin, since many income sources for retired peeps do not tend to keep up with the debasement of the dollar and/or the cost of living increases, yet it seems that bitcoin does, as long as we do not end up selling too much of our stash too soon. Hopefully that has been your general experience, without my necessarily needing to outline some hypothetical.. even the Mindrust 10-ish BTC one from my earlier response (above).


It is a little sad that retail is likely going to end up getting reckt this time around since a certain limited number of institutions, governments and perhaps status quo rich folks are likely pumping up the price this time around in the coming months.


I question the feasibility, the playing out and the characterization of any "sideways summer" thesis.


Sure... but giving 90% to 99% odds might still be problematic, even though it might work to say 99% odds that the $74.5k bottom is in, even though it is probably closer to 75% odds, not that I consider those to be bettable, even though I still would be willing to bet that the BTC price will not drop below 25% above the 200-WMA until after 2025...perhaps 1st or 2nd or 3rd quarter of 2026, and it is not even necessary to drop within 25% of the 200-WMA, even though it seems to have had happened every single cycle, so far in bitcoin's history.. and yeah sure of course, we could proclaim that "this time is different," and I am not ready to bet on "this time is different."


Don't get overly anxious, and don't call me a bear.

Sure it would be nice, but we already know that it will happen when it will happen, and at some point it seems that the bears have been holding this bad boy down too much, which may well cause some of us to speculate that the various exchanges and 3rd party custodians might not have nearly as many of the coins as they are claiming to have.

By the way, I have all of the more than 0.63 BTC that I claim to have... even though they may well be spread out in various places, as I have discussed previously in terms of trying to manage UTXOs and not have all coins in the same place.

Anyhow, the individual holders are not the ones who are likely to be fucking around with fractional reserves within terms that might not exactly be clear to us quasi-laypeople trying to figure out what is happening.. what are the obligations and who's policing them when some of them are proclaiming that "proof of reserves" is not necessary... blah blah blah.


Now you are talking, Phil... even though I still don't really consider that settling down is very likely based on how much time we have been fucking round in our current largely $85k to $112k range.. but yeah, sure something like that could end up happening.


Most likely not.