Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: In a case where we still have unbanked population!
by
d5000
on 18/06/2025, 03:16:53 UTC
I think that you are seriously overestimating the volatility of Bitcoin these days and underestimating the volatility of most currencies of the world.
I'm actually monitoring the Bitbo volatility chart quite closely as I'm very interested in that topic. In this post in another thread I've compared Bitcoin's volatility with the Brazilian Real and gold. Bitcoin's 30 and 60-day volatility is actually about 2 times the gold and BRL volatility (both are surprisingly close). I chose the BRL because it's a larger currency but not as stable as the USD or the EUR which do indeed represent the "stability extreme" when we talk about currencies, but the BRL is also not a notoriously inflationary currency like the Argentine Peso or the Venezuelan Bolívar which are also extreme cases. So it's very much an "average" currency.

Here I'm re-posting the same image but with recent data and additionally with the Thailandese Baht:

30 day volatility:


60 day volatility:


So we're actually quite well "on track" towards lower volatility, but it's still some way to go until we reach average currencies' values. And the problem are the >20%-30% crashes we see every now and then. Most of the time these are dips which recover fastly (like the ~30% August dip in 2024), but we don't have really bearish conditions since late 2022, so we don't know what will happen if the market comes to the conclusion that "the top of this bull market is in". Unfortunately, it's still too early to really be sure that Bitcoin won't dip again 50% or more in this case, in less than a year.

For savings, and for a small part of a typical middle class families' fortune (even in average/"emerging" countries), Bitcoin is already quite good. It's still a bit risky though.

My dream would be merchants with Bitcoin-specific promotions and discounts which could work a bit like a "backing", for example if during a little dip they could offer goods "for yesterday's Bitcoin price" (see this old thread) but there was not much interest in that topic, even if I'm quite sure they could actually benefit from such marketing actions.