Quote from: d5000 on Today at 03:16:53 AM

Quote from: coyhasmon on Today at 01:35:37 AM

I think that you are seriously overestimating the volatility of Bitcoin these days and underestimating the volatility of most currencies of the world.

I'm actually monitoring the Bitbo volatility chart quite closely as I'm very interested in that topic. In this post in another thread I've compared Bitcoin's volatility with the Brazilian Real and gold. Bitcoin's 30 and 60-day volatility is actually about 2 times the gold and BRL volatility (both are surprisingly close). I chose the BRL because it's a larger currency but not as stable as the USD or the EUR which do indeed represent the "stability extreme" when we talk about currencies, but the BRL is also not a notoriously inflationary currency like the Argentine Peso or the Venezuelan Bolívar which are also extreme cases. So it's very much an "average" currency.

Excellent, thanks for sharing that and I'll watch the thread!

Quote from: d5000 on Today at 03:16:53 AM

So we're actually quite well "on track" towards lower volatility, but it's still some way to go until we reach average currencies' values. And the problem are the >20%-30% crashes we see every now and then. Most of the time these are dips which recover fastly (like the ~30% August dip in 2024),

I think that what we also forget to mention is the moving trend when we talk about volatility. Two different things can have the same rates of volatility, but one can have a positive (appreciating) and the other a negative (depreciating) trend. An asset such as Bitcoin can't possibly have volatility as low as the best currencies because it is still in its value discovering phase. I believe this phase will continue for a few more cycles. At the point where we are now, it must either go to the million range or it will go bust.

Quote from: d5000 on Today at 03:16:53 AM

but we don't have really bearish conditions since late 2022, so we don't know what will happen if the market comes to the conclusion that "the top of this bull market is in". Unfortunately, it's still too early to really be sure that Bitcoin won't dip again 50% or more in this case, in less than a year.

I strongly disagree with this. All the bullishness comes only from two activities the ETFs and Bitcoin treasuries, nothing else. The macro environment is terrible. There are wars everywhere, interest rates are high and quantitative tightening is still going on.

Quote from: d5000 on Today at 03:16:53 AM

For savings, and for a small part of a typical middle class families' fortune (even in average/"emerging" countries), Bitcoin is already quite good. It's still a bit risky though.

I would like to pose another question as a counter. Assuming the USD is the strongest currency, how much have savings been devalued in real terms in just the last 5 years? I'm not talking about officially fabricated numbers, but the real market value of the dollar. I think these days we can safely consider saving in other currencies more risky.