From your friend's statement, it's obvious his prediction was just based on the odds they presented and not based on other factors. He falls under the category of those who consider teams with small odds to win likely to win, which is not always the same as what bookmakers play with our intelligence, and most times they themselves can't even understand how the game is going to end. What Charles mentioned above about players who were used for the match is also another important factor I consider very well while making my predictions.
Let me hear from y'all. What's your take on making decisions by team odds without considering their performance records?
I also want us to note that the bookmakers sometimes hide some teams strengths by making them feel like an underdog with higher odds strategies which I believe that caught my guy on trap.
Betting on team based on the odds and not on team performance and previous recorded success is somewhat a risk that make gambling what it is, when you take such step to bet blindly following the avaliable odds, you should rely solely on luck at that stage of betting.
If you bet using such formula, you need to Make sure to follow the game life and take whatever cashout that you feel that is ok to be a profits to end the session with, if you become greedy, that is when the problem of losing the bet will become a reality, losing your bet at the end.
Take the cash out and walk out.
Not all odds provided by bookies will really happen. Do remember, some underdogs can emerge as winners. Though bookies are basing on algorithm, based on previous performances, history and more.
A good example is in boxing, as you are only talking about 2 fighters. How many matches have you watched where the underdog emerged as a winner. I guess, a lot of times already. But in some fights, I understand, that there is clearly the favorite for so many reasons. But we can't deny the fact that sometimes, an upset can happen not only in boxing but in all the other sports. This is why, if bookies will always be right, it means, bettors should need to bet on their favorites. But being a gambler, they are betting sometimes on underdogs to gain more profit. Because upsets happen all the time, meaning, bookies are not right all the time as well.