One possible fix.

A lil speculation on my part that the dude might have had been considering pre-ci-ous as three sylables rather than prec-ious two.


I would not feel good attempting to bash on you too much for having visions and various target accumulations... even though gosh..  wanting to make up for the past (like the way past) seems problematic...   So I gotta comment a little bit on these kinds of seemingly problematic thoughts.

Usually, when I make mistakes, I will strive to make up for such mistakes within weeks or months of the happening of the mistakes, even though sometimes I might not catch (or realize the existence of a mistake until later down the road), and surely sometimes some of the mistakes might be difficult to make up for over short time periods, so there might need to be some allowance for the BTC price to play itself out, since we cannot necessarily know the timeline in which the BTC price will move and/or by how much it might move within a given timeline, yet my usual practice tends to be to make adjustments on the way up and also on the way down in order to let BTC's near inevitable volatility to resolve the mistake no matter which direction the BTC price moves, the mistake is going to get resolved and/or adjusted  ... and frequently many of the "mistakes" that I have tended to make seem to get resolved in a matter of a month or two rather than taking longer to resolve.

It might just be me... I sometimes develop a plan in my head to make some changes to my system, and it might take me 1-2 weeks or even longer before I put the new plan into place (which usually ends up being tweaks at most)...

Currently, I have some tentative ideas to change some of my sell orders on the way up.. and there are around 8 of them starting around $150k (so there is not really a rush to do it.. even though some of it has been plotted out on paper).. and since I have been thinking about those actual changes, there may end up being some other changes that end up getting made at around the same time that I end up making the changes that are currently being contemplated..

Sometimes a lot of BTC price movements in short time periods will trigger me to make adjustments, and then other times, when we are stuck in consolidation for a while, I will start to consider ways that I might be able to make myself feel moar better about my order placements (on both the buy and sell sides) and their amounts.

For example, I had recently been looking at my buy orders and the various increments, and I had noticed that they seem to bounce around a bit and I could probably even them out a bit, yet I think that my current ideas regarding the various buy orders would have had not been triggered if I had not been mauling over the 8-ish sell orders that I have been batting around in my head over the past several days.


You are correct that it could be different this time.

Actually every single time seems to be a little different, even though so far within a somewhat familiar pattern that can cause simultaneous assertions that this time is not different, but instead within a range of expectations.

Sure, there are still a variety of possibilities within the "this time is not different" parameters, including anywhere from the $112k top is already in towards the top being in the third or fourth quarter as you are suggesting to be the most likely scenario... and of course, the other outlier scenario is to have a top in the 1st or 2nd quarter of 2026 or even to end up having a top later than the 2nd quarter of 2026.. which may well end up justifying a this time is actually different proclamation - yet we can already say that this time is different because we had a top prior to the 4/20... 2024 halvening.

Even you, LFC, with your so much rigid kinds of fractalismo.. you likely have various scenarios in your head in which you would not be surprised and/or falling off of your seat if we were to see them play out, even if they are arguably further into this time is different framenings.

So, yeah, I agree.. Base case is that top will come in the third or fourth quarter of 2025.

Minority scenarios with a top that already happened or a top that is coming in the 1st, 2nd or later quarter of 2026.

Need we narrow down these scenarios with any further precision when we might start to come off as nutjobs if we really are assigning more specifics..  

I would be willing to either assign more specific numbers and/or to comment on the number assignments that some other guys might choose to make.

No matter what, I doubt that it is time to get anxious yet, even though some of us (even presumptively you, LFC) have outlined some tentative price points, and some quantities of our cornz that we plan to sell at those various price points, and tension begins to build if we imagine scenarios in which something approximating our numbers does not end up playing out, and I suppose one of the constant reliefs (or advantages) that I have had over guys like you, is that I have continued to exercise incrementalism, so any kind of "upset" that I get ends up being a mere marginal and small level of upset.. and nothing really overly grand.  I will admit that in 2021, I sold smaller amounts on the way up and I bought larger amounts on the way down with a kind of presumption that our high was going to be at least 10-15% higher than the $69k that ended up playing out, so I did sort of overly play that anticipation.. and like many folks I had considered pretty good odds that were going to be witnessing supra $100k in early 2022.

Many of us recall that our actual $69k top played itself out in mid-ish November 2021.. so we did not get any further UP either later in 2021 or in early 2022.. and many of us ended up riding the BTC price down through late 2021 and into 2022 with potential hopes that the UPpity would continue.. but then by about April or May, it started to become quite obvious that the odds of more UPpity were pretty damned low... and sure ... some folks figured out that the UP was over sooner than others.. but even so.. none of the BTC price path is even certain, even during periods in which the odds start to become pretty high for one direction or another... We still sometimes might end up experiencing low odd events playing out that might buck whatever trend that we are in.. that's why it is risky to assign too high of odds to our base cases.

By the way, even my current tweakening contemplations that I discuss above in my response to Phil, I am largely attempting to account for a greater variety of scenarios, since I was starting to get some trepidations in regards to how my currently existing BTC sell orders are already skewed.


Nice one!!!

Let LFC bask within the potential errors of his ways.




That is a bit much Phil.  We have never had cycles being over, and all of a sudden they are? I don't buy it.

IOWs... I will believe it when I see it, and maybe not even then.


Ok..

That helps.  Personally, I feel much moar better to receive such assurances.


I mean...


soon...


geez...



that mustn't not be a very long time^tm.


During a "bull market," chances of "up" tend to be greater than chances for "down." That is part of the bull market definition if we still happen to be in such a thing.


I was still criticizing what seems to be a presumption of "down before up," as if it were to have greater than 50/50 odds.


Sure. DCA is a solution for anyone who may still be in his accumulation stages, and sure it is possible that someone like yourself who has been registered on the forum for more than 9 years is also in his BTC accumulation stages, and maybe you have been prolonging your BTC accumulation stages by oingoingly strategizing around dips that may end up not happening?


You are agreeing.. but you were still seeming to be anticipating a potential of down before up. .which almost comes off as someone who might have had graduated out of his earlier accumulation stages and someone who might be strategizing for dips rather than ongoing, consistent and persistent buying of BTC.

Sure there is no reason for me to presume where you are at, even though you likely see that I can become triggered when there are assertions of down before up... when the odds of down before up might not even be  greater than 50/50... so why point them out.. unless you are inching towards considering odds of down before up might have some kind of greater than 50/50 odds of playing out?


Now you seem to be saying "up before down," so why say it?  Why make proclamations that are opposite?  Maybe you are wanting to say both, but still neither is convincing except to say that we could have a break out in either direction, and maybe up has odds that are slightly greater than down, since we are in a bull market.

Your part about our bullmarket dragging out into mid-2026 seems to completely ignore LFC's tried and true conceptualization of a 2025 bull market that is mostly wrapping up in either 3rd quarter or at latest 4th quarter of 2025.

Personally, I have no problem acknowledging that cycles still exist and mostly fall within their historical 4 year timeframes, while at the same time retaining enough statistical variance (or is it "probability variance"?) that they do not need to fall exactly within historical 4-year timeframes in order to still be largely continuing to follow such 4-year patterns that involve human behavior and no real abilities to mathematically pin down exactly when the over-exuberance might end up occurring that results in buy support no longer being strong enough to be able to prevent the BTC price from gravitating downwardly.

By the way, BALIK, I hate to send you an smerit for saying nearly exactly the opposite from your earlier post, but I couldn't help myself... even though I remain a bit bothered by the seeming inconsistencies..... perhaps since you seem to be proclaiming consistency as one of your values within at least one of the posts.. ..  but then, again, what else is new around these here parts?? ??   Guys, including but not necessarily limited to, yours truly, sometimes are "all over the place"...   It is not like forum threads like this one need to rise to the level of scholarly prestige (analysis), especially since frequently there are a lot of things going on that may well affect BTC price dynamics that touch on a lot of areas of life.. including that at any given time, all of the ducks seem to be lined up to go in one direction, and then the opposite ends up happening..   

One possible fix.

A lil speculation on my part that the dude might have had been considering pre-ci-ous as three sylables rather than prec-ious two.


I would not feel good attempting to bash on you too much for having visions and various target accumulations... even though gosh..  wanting to make up for the past (like the way past) seems problematic...    So I gotta comment a little bit on these kinds of seemingly problematic thoughts.

Usually, when I make mistakes, I will strive to make up for such mistakes within weeks or months of the happening of the mistakes, even though sometimes I might not catch (or realize the existence of a mistake until later down the road), and surely sometimes some of the mistakes might be difficult to make up for over short time periods, so there might need to be some allowance for the BTC price to play itself out, since we cannot necessarily know the timeline in which the BTC price will move and/or by how much it might move within a given timeline, yet my usual practice tends to be to make adjustments on the way up and also on the way down in order to let BTC's near inevitable volatility to resolve the mistake no matter which direction the BTC price moves, the mistake is going to get resolved and/or adjusted  ... and frequently many of the "mistakes" that I have tended to make seem to get resolved in a matter of a month or two rather than taking longer to resolve.

It might just be me... I sometimes develop a plan in my head to make some changes to my system, and it might take me 1-2 weeks or even longer before I put the new plan into place (which usually ends up being tweaks at most)...

Currently, I have some tentative ideas to change some of my sell orders on the way up.. and there are around 8 of them starting around $150k (so there is not really a rush to do it.. even though some of it has been plotted out on paper).. and since I have been thinking about those actual changes, there may end up being some other changes that end up getting made at around the same time that I end up making the changes that are currently being contemplated..

Sometimes a lot of BTC price movements in short time periods will trigger me to make adjustments, and then other times, when we are stuck in consolidation for a while, I will start to consider ways that I might be able to make myself feel moar better about my order placements (on both the buy and sell sides) and their amounts.

For example, I had recently been looking at my buy orders and the various increments, and I had noticed that they seem to bounce around a bit and I could probably even them out a bit, yet I think that my current ideas regarding the various buy orders would have had not been triggered if I had not been mauling over the 8-ish sell orders that I have been batting around in my head over the past several days.


You are correct that it could be different this time.

Actually every single time seems to be a little different, even though so far within a somewhat familiar pattern that can cause simultaneous assertions that this time is not different, but instead within a range of expectations.

Sure, there are still a variety of possibilities within the "this time is not different" parameters, including anywhere from the $112k top is already in towards the top being in the third or fourth quarter as you are suggesting to be the most likely scenario... and of course, the other outlier scenario is to have a top in the 1st or 2nd quarter of 2026 or even to end up having a top later than the 2nd quarter of 2026.. which may well end up justifying a this time is actually different proclamation - yet we can already say that this time is different because we had a top prior to the 4/20... 2024 halvening.

Even you, LFC, with your so much rigid kinds of fractalismo.. you likely have various scenarios in your head in which you would not be surprised and/or falling off of your seat if we were to see them play out, even if they are arguably further into this time is different framenings.

So, yeah, I agree.. Base case is that top will come in the third or fourth quarter of 2025.

Minority scenarios with a top that already happened or a top that is coming in the 1st, 2nd or later quarter of 2026.

Need we narrow down these scenarios with any further precision when we might start to come off as nutjobs if we really are assigning more specifics..  

I would be willing to either assign more specific numbers and/or to comment on the number assignments that some other guys might choose to make.

No matter what, I doubt that it is time to get anxious yet, even though some of us (even presumptively you, LFC) have outlined some tentative price points, and some quantities of our cornz that we plan to sell at those various price points, and tension begins to build if we imagine scenarios in which something approximating our numbers does not end up playing out, and I suppose one of the constant reliefs (or advantages) that I have had over guys like you, is that I have continued to exercise incrementalism, so any kind of "upset" that I get ends up being a mere marginal and small level of upset.. and nothing really overly grand.  I will admit that in 2021, I sold smaller amounts on the way up and I bought larger amounts on the way down with a kind of presumption that our high was going to be at least 10-15% higher than the $69k that ended up playing out, so I did sort of overly play that anticipation.. and like many folks I had considered pretty good odds that were going to be witnessing supra $100k in early 2022.

Many of us recall that our actual $69k top played itself out in mid-ish November 2021.. so we did not get any further UP either later in 2021 or in early 2022.. and many of us ended up riding the BTC price down through late 2021 and into 2022 with potential hopes that the UPpity would continue.. but then by about April or May, it started to become quite obvious that the odds of more UPpity were pretty damned low... and sure ... some folks figured out that the UP was over sooner than others.. but even so.. none of the BTC price path is even certain, even during periods in which the odds start to become pretty high for one direction or another... We still sometimes might end up experiencing low odd events playing out that might buck whatever trend that we are in.. that's why it is risky to assign too high of odds to our base cases.

By the way, even my current tweakening contemplations that I discuss above in my response to Phil, I am largely attempting to account for a greater variety of scenarios, since I was starting to get some trepidations in regards to how my currently existing BTC sell orders are already skewed.


Nice one!!!

Let LFC bask within the potential errors of his ways.




That is a bit much Phil.  We have never had cycles being over, and all of a sudden they are? I don't buy it.

IOWs... I will believe it when I see it, and maybe not even then.


Ok..

That helps.  Personally, I feel much moar better to receive such assurances.


I mean...


soon...


geez...



that mustn't not be a very long time^tm.


During a "bull market," chances of "up" tend to be greater than chances for "down." That is part of the bull market definition if we still happen to be in such a thing.


I was still criticizing what seems to be a presumption of "down before up," as if it were to have greater than 50/50 odds.


Sure. DCA is a solution for anyone who may still be in his accumulation stages, and sure it is possible that someone like yourself who has been registered on the forum for more than 9 years is also in his BTC accumulation stages, and maybe you have been prolonging your BTC accumulation stages by oingoingly strategizing around dips that may end up not happening?


You are agreeing.. but you were still seeming to be anticipating a potential of down before up. .which almost comes off as someone who might have had graduated out of his earlier accumulation stages and someone who might be strategizing for dips rather than ongoing, consistent and persistent buying of BTC.

Sure there is no reason for me to presume where you are at, even though you likely see that I can become triggered when there are assertions of down before up... when the odds of down before up might not even be  greater than 50/50... so why point them out.. unless you are inching towards considering odds of down before up might have some kind of greater than 50/50 odds of playing out?


Now you seem to be saying "up before down," so why say it?  Why make proclamations that are opposite?  Maybe you are wanting to say both, but still neither is convincing except to say that we could have a break out in either direction, and maybe up has odds that are slightly greater than down, since we are in a bull market.

Your part about our bullmarket dragging out into mid-2026 seems to completely ignore LFC's tried and true conceptualization of a 2025 bull market that is mostly wrapping up in either 3rd quarter or at latest 4th quarter of 2025.

Personally, I have no problem acknowledging that cycles still exist and mostly fall within their historical 4 year timeframes, while at the same time retaining enough statistical variance (or is it "probability variance"?) that they do not need to fall exactly within historical 4-year timeframes in order to still be largely continuing to follow such 4-year patterns that involve human behavior and no real abilities to mathematically pin down exactly when the over-exuberance might end up occurring that results in buy support no longer being strong enough to be able to prevent the BTC price from gravitating downwardly.

By the way, BALIK, I hate to send you an smerit for saying nearly exactly the opposite from your earlier post, but I couldn't help myself... even though I remain a bit bothered by the seeming inconsistencies..... perhaps since you seem to be proclaiming consistency as one of your values within at least one of the posts.. ..  but then, again, what else is new around these here parts?? ??   Guys, including but not necessarily limited to, yours truly, sometimes are "all over the place"...  

One possible fix.

A lil speculation on my part that the dude might have had been considering pre-ci-ous as three sylables rather than prec-ious two.


I would not feel good attempting to bash on you too much for having visions and various target accumulations... even though gosh..  wanting to make up for the past (like the way past) seems problematic...   So I gotta comment a little bit on these kinds of seemingly problematic thoughts.

Usually, when I make mistakes, I will strive to make up for such mistakes within weeks or months of the happening of the mistakes, even though sometimes I might not catch (or realize the existence of a mistake until later down the road), and surely sometimes some of the mistakes might be difficult to make up for over short time periods, so there might need to be some allowance for the BTC price to play itself out, since we cannot necessarily know the timeline in which the BTC price will move and/or by how much it might move within a given timeline, yet my usual practice tends to be to make adjustments on the way up and also on the way down in order to let BTC's near inevitable volatility to resolve the mistake no matter which direction the BTC price moves, the mistake is going to get resolved and/or adjusted  ... and frequently many of the "mistakes" that I have tended to make seem to get resolved in a matter of a month or two rather than taking longer to resolve.

It might just be me... I sometimes develop a plan in my head to make some changes to my system, and it might take me 1-2 weeks or even longer before I put the new plan into place (which usually ends up being tweaks at most)...

Currently, I have some tentative ideas to change some of my sell orders on the way up.. and there are around 8 of them starting around $150k (so there is not really a rush to do it.. even though some of it has been plotted out on paper).. and since I have been thinking about those actual changes, there may end up being some other changes that end up getting made at around the same time that I end up making the changes that are currently being contemplated..

Sometimes a lot of BTC price movements in short time periods will trigger me to make adjustments, and then other times, when we are stuck in consolidation for a while, I will start to consider ways that I might be able to make myself feel moar better about my order placements (on both the buy and sell sides) and their amounts.

For example, I had recently been looking at my buy orders and the various increments, and I had noticed that they seem to bounce around a bit and I could probably even them out a bit, yet I think that my current ideas regarding the various buy orders would have had not been triggered if I had not been mauling over the 8-ish sell orders that I have been batting around in my head over the past several days.


You are correct that it could be different this time.

Actually every single time seems to be a little different, even though so far within a somewhat familiar pattern that can cause simultaneous assertions that this time is not different, but instead within a range of expectations.

Sure, there are still a variety of possibilities within the "this time is not different" parameters, including anywhere from the $112k top is already in towards the top being in the third or fourth quarter as you are suggesting to be the most likely scenario... and of course, the other outlier scenario is to have a top in the 1st or 2nd quarter of 2026 or even to end up having a top later than the 2nd quarter of 2026.. which may well end up justifying a this time is actually different proclamation - yet we can already say that this time is different because we had a top prior to the 4/20... 2024 halvening.

Even you, LFC, with your so much rigid kinds of fractalismo.. you likely have various scenarios in your head in which you would not be surprised and/or falling off of your seat if we were to see them play out, even if they are arguably further into this time is different framenings.

So, yeah, I agree.. Base case is that top will come in the third or fourth quarter of 2025.

Minority scenarios with a top that already happened or a top that is coming in the 1st, 2nd or later quarter of 2026.

Need we narrow down these scenarios with any further precision when we might start to come off as nutjobs if we really are assigning more specifics.. 

I would be willing to either assign more specific numbers and/or to comment on the number assignments that some other guys might choose to make.

No matter what, I doubt that it is time to get anxious yet, even though some of us (even presumptively you, LFC) have outlined some tentative price points, and some quantities of our cornz that we plan to sell at those various price points, and tension begins to build if we imagine scenarios in which something approximating our numbers does not end up playing out, and I suppose one of the constant reliefs (or advantages) that I have had over guys like you, is that I have continued to exercise incrementalism, so any kind of "upset" that I get ends up being a mere marginal and small level of upset.. and nothing really overly grand.  I will admit that in 2021, I sold smaller amounts on the way up and I bought larger amounts on the way down with a kind of presumption that our high was going to be at least 10-15% higher than the $69k that ended up playing out, so I did sort of overly play that anticipation.. and like many folks I had considered pretty good odds that were going to be witnessing supra $100k in early 2022.

Many of us recall that our actual $69k top played itself out in mid-ish November 2021.. so we did not get any further UP either later in 2021 or in early 2022.. and many of us ended up riding the BTC price down through late 2021 and into 2022 with potential hopes that the UPpity would continue.. but then by about April or May, it started to become quite obvious that the odds of more UPpity were pretty damned low... and sure ... some folks figured out that the UP was over sooner than others.. but even so.. none of the BTC price path is even certain, even during periods in which the odds start to become pretty high for one direction or another... We still sometimes might end up experiencing low odd events playing out that might buck whatever trend that we are in.. that's why it is risky to assign too high of odds to our base cases.

By the way, even my current tweakening contemplations that I discuss above in my response to Phil, I am largely attempting to account for a greater variety of scenarios, since I was starting to get some trepidations in regards to how my currently existing BTC sell orders are already skewed.


Nice one!!!

Let LFC bask within the potential errors of his ways.




That is a bit much Phil.  We have never had cycles being over, and all of a sudden they are? I don't buy it.

IOWs... I will believe it when I see it, and maybe not even then.


Ok..

That helps.  Personally, I feel much moar better to receive such assurances.


I mean...


soon...


geez...



that mustn't not be a very long time^tm.


During a "bull market," chances of "up" tend to be greater than chances for "down." That is part of the bull market definition if we still happen to be in such a thing.


I was still criticizing what seems to be a presumption of "down before up," as if it were to have greater than 50/50 odds.


Sure. DCA is a solution for anyone who may still be in his accumulation stages, and sure it is possible that someone like yourself who has been registered on the forum for more than 9 years is also in his BTC accumulation stages, and maybe you have been prolonging your BTC accumulation stages by oingoingly strategizing around dips that may end up not happening?


You are agreeing.. but you were still seeming to be anticipating a potential of down before up. .which almost comes off as someone who might have had graduated out of his earlier accumulation stages and someone who might be strategizing for dips rather than ongoing, consistent and persistent buying of BTC.

Sure there is no reason for me to presume where you are at, even though you likely see that I can become triggered when there are assertions of down before up... when the odds of down before up might not even be  greater than 50/50... so why point them out.. unless you are inching towards considering odds of down before up might have some kind of greater than 50/50 odds of playing out?


Now you seem to be saying "up before down," so why say it?  Why make proclamations that are opposite?  Maybe you are wanting to say both, but still neither is convincing except to say that we could have a break out in either direction, and maybe up has odds that are slightly greater than down, since we are in a bull market.

Your part about our bullmarket dragging out into mid-2026 seems to completely ignore LFC's tried and true conceptualization of a 2025 bull market that is mostly wrapping up in either 3rd quarter or at latest 4th quarter of 2025.

Personally, I have no problem acknowledging that cycles still exist and mostly fall within their historical 4 year timeframes, while at the same time retaining enough statistical variance (or is it "probability variance"?) that they do not need to fall exactly within historical 4-year timeframes in order to still be largely continuing to follow such 4-year patterns that involve human behavior and no real abilities to mathematically pin down exactly when the over-exuberance might end up occurring that results in buy support no longer being strong enough to be able to prevent the BTC price from gravitating downwardly.

By the way, BALIK, I hate to send you an smerit for saying nearly exactly the opposite from your earlier post, but I couldn't help myself... even though I remain a bit bothered by the seeming inconsistencies.