Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 06:48:57 AM

Quote from: Lucius on June 23, 2025, 10:39:33 AM

Quote from: OutOfMemory on June 23, 2025, 10:17:33 AM

[edited out]

You've identified at least two problems (although there are more) that are likely to affect people's acceptance of Bitcoin as an investment, let alone as a currency. As you say, most people are still very cautious about Bitcoin because they think that something like that simply cannot last forever and that there must come a time when it will collapse - and even when they clearly see that such a scenario is increasingly difficult to achieve, they hold on to their old beliefs because it is difficult for them to admit that you, me and some others were right, and they were clearly wrong.

It may sound a little offensive to some, but if someone hasn't been able to understand what Bitcoin is in 15 years, will they ever be able to understand it? Somehow I don't believe that people in general are that unintelligent, but rather that most are heavily influenced by what politicians and media say, which tend to glorify centralist beliefs.

Hey Lucius. I think that it is problematic for you to be suggesting that anyone failing to adopt bitcoin has any clues about what bitcoin is, even if they might have had known the word "bitcoin" for the past 16 years or longer.

We cannot impute knowledge on people, and surely they have all kinds of information about bitcoin and surely might not have had done any due diligence on bitcoin, even if they might financially be able to invest into bitcoin (such as if they were to have a discretionary income and have any clues about how to potentially get started investing into bitcoin.

Sure, there are people who already invest into various assets, so those folks would be more likely to not have excuses about their allocating some amount to bitcoin, yet still we hardly can know.. if they are able to afford $100 per week or $10 per week or some other amount that they wouldn't miss based on the number of lattes that they seem to drink from Starbucks, surely they should be able to afford to cut back on a few lattes every week, no?

Otherwise, I agree with your criticism of OOM's two reasons for not investing into bitcoin to likely be inadequate to cover the variety of reasons that normies are not able to identify that investing into bitcoin would be in their best interest as compared with not investing into bitcoin... to the extent that we might be able to substitute our judgement for theirs.

Quote from: Lucius on June 23, 2025, 10:39:33 AM

It's rare that ordinary people have the opportunity to be ahead of people with large capital, and Bitcoin was (and still is) just such an opportunity that was offered to them on a golden platter while people like Saylor and companies like BlackRock were publicly saying that Bitcoin was doomed and that it was something only used by criminals. Today, the story has completely turned around, and it is once again shown that those who have money can always turn the game in their favor, only the stakes are much higher today than they were 7-8 years ago.

I will agree with you that certain number of the status quo rich including Saylor, Blackrock, various other similarly situated status quo rich individuals, institutions and governments are likely going to disadvantage normies through their changed tunes in regards to accumulating and hoarding bitcoin. So, sure bitcoin prices are going to go up and normies are going to have to pay more to accumulate bitcoin.. yet it is difficult to affect what people, institutions and/or governments do in terms of their incentives to accumulate an hoard bitcoin. Normies just have to figure it out as soon as they can so they can get started to join in rather than waiting longer before getting started.

Quote from: Lucius on June 23, 2025, 10:39:33 AM

For all those who invested in BTC 10+ years ago and still haven't sold (most of it), the greatest satisfaction may be that we outsmarted them and that we won't sell them everything they want even if they offer $1 million for BTC

The sooner that any of us get into bitcoin, the more chances that we are going to be able to front run the institutions, governments and status quo rich that are still figuring out bitcoin and who have not started to accumulate bitcoin and/or hoard it.

So sure. Those of us who had gotten into bitcoin a whole cycle ago, or two cycles or even longer, then surely we would have had potentially been able to experience some avantages based on our having had front run quite a few of the BIGGER players who are now only getting started in bitcoin.

Quote from: philipma1957 on Today at 03:46:31 AM

Quote from: JimboToronto on June 23, 2025, 10:46:18 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on June 23, 2025, 01:00:13 AM

will the cat bounced a bit to 101k

https://www.talkimg.com/images/2025/06/23/UuypYZ.jpeg
Still bouncing.

Because it was not a dead cat.
Live ones bounce higher Huh

At JJG one can argue btc has always been bull if you always do at least a six inch oh six year hodl.

That is too loosey goosey for my tastes, especially since there has been quite a bit of analysis of the historical existence of four year cycles.. and sure, each 4 year cycle has various uniquenesses in terms of its pattern, yet if we are just trying to mix things up for the sake of it, I doubt that is going to help us in terms of studying 1) where we are at, 2) how we got here and/or 3) where we might be going.

Quote from: philipma1957 on Today at 03:46:31 AM

I think the longest losing hodl was 5 years and one month from dec 2017 to Jan 2023

I tend to recommend ongoing investing rather than fucking around with lump sum investing (especially at the top of a cycle) without any follow through plan.

Guys should try to be smart about the way that they accumulate bitcoin rather than fucking around trying to trade or expecting to get rich quick.

I am not against getting started investing into bitcoin at the top of the cycle since for 1) we likely are not going to know whether we are at the top or not, 2) if a guy has no fucking bitcoin, it is better to get started rather than waiting, even if the price might be at the top of a wave. Waiting is not a good strategy, especially for newbies, and 3) there might be some other reasons, but I cannot think of any off the top of my head at the moment.

Quote from: philipma1957 on Today at 03:46:31 AM

But if you last on hodl at six or more years we are at 100 percent bull since 2009

I don't like that way of investing in bitcoin or even thinking about bitcoin in those kinds of ways, since it seems that we have been experiencing 4 year cycles since about mid 2010 (when bitcoin first established a non-zero price) or even if we dont' start measuring until 2012-ish, there still seems to be pretty good evidence of 4 year cycles, at least historically. Sure there are also some other ways of thinking about bitcoin and trying to model it, such as power law, yet even stock to flow is a bit of a variation of the powerlaw with the 4-year fractal .. and surely I also like to consider exponential s-curve adoption based on networking effects (think trace mayer) and metcalfe principle

Quote from: philipma1957 on Today at 03:56:02 AM

Quote from: JimboToronto on Today at 03:53:03 AM

Quote from: philipma1957 on Today at 03:46:31 AM

Because it was not a dead cat.

That's the point.

Exactly which is why I said the cat bounced

Not it’s a dead cat bounce.

Bitcoin can hardly be characterized as a dead cat, even if there may well be pieces of evidence that parallels such market trading dynamics that may well exist from time to time.

Also, the concept of dead cat bounce exists when the overall structure (and momentum) is indicating that we are going down or maybe in a bear market or some kind of a larger overall correction.. .. which surely it seems premature to be making those kinds of calls.. even though surely we never really can know for sure how down we might go during any consolidation or correction or if the correction might end up becoming a bear market rather than just a more straight-forward correction, which several times can end up happening, even in the best of bitcoin bull runs..

Quote from: philipma1957 on Today at 03:56:02 AM

It is also why I purchased at 99 and change and 98 and change.
I think the cat is doing very well.

Sure.. of course, you are buying on the dips without necessarily knowing when the dip will stop, and so sure, nothing wrong with that.

I find it more problematic that you are ongoingly holding so much cash, and a few months ago, you had suggested that you had decently large amounts of cash waiting for more down that may or may not happen... which surely might work for your personal circumstances, yet we have a lot of folks who are participating in threads like this one and even other parts of the forum, and they are still in their first cycle or so of bitcoin accumulation, and so I doubt that it is helpful for newbies to be holding back a bunch of cash for dips that might not happen...even if arguably it might be appropriate for you to hold back so much cash for possible buying on dips that might not end up happening.

Man, I’ve gotta give you credit, everything you said was solid, and it shows you actually understand the space.

Ur point about just because people have heard of Bitcoin doesn’t mean they understand it. There is a big gap between hearing a buzzword and actually doing your homework. A lot of people who can afford to invest simply haven not taken the time to understand why they should.

And you’re spot on about the status quo rich like Saylor, BlackRock, and the rest. These guys are no longer sitting on the sidelines, they’re buying heavy and holding tight. That alone should tell the average person everything they need to know. The rules are changing, and if you don’t move early, you will have to buy later at a much higher cost, if you even can.

I also like what you said about front running institutions. Even just being early by one cycle can give you a massive edge. It is one of those advantages that’s only obvious in hindsight.

On the topic of investing, I know for sure that DCA over time beats trying to time the market, especially for people just getting started. Waiting for the perfect entry usually ends up being a mistake. Most people would be better off just getting started and staying consistent.

And about the cycle talk, we should know the 4 year cycle may not be perfect, but it still helps make sense of the bigger picture.