You are perfectly correct. Many investors actually hesitate to buy on dip to increase the volume of their Bitcoin starch but the problem is to be calculative enough and to be smart to leverage the dip and accumulate more Bitcoin because some fork set their targeted dip to buy and they keeping on waiting for Bitcoin to dip to their target before they will buy and by so doing the price will start to recover making them to missed the opportunity of accumulate more Bitcoin.
Congratulation to those that were able to leverage to accumulate more Bitcoin.
Not all are like that, it all comes back to each person's beliefs and thoughts about what will happen in the future by analyzing what will happen.
I think there are also many who are happy about what happened today including myself because I did not expect the market to recover this quickly even though I was sure so I also forced and made aggressive purchases beyond my capabilities even though it was risky but prices below $ 100K will be difficult for us to see again and that was proven in just 2 days.
If we believe in the future of Bitcoin then we must remove all fears as well as what happened today, forget it all and focus on the goals we believe in, if there is a correction in the Bitcoin price no matter how deep it is then we should be able to welcome it happily to be able to accumulate more Bitcoin, I did that.
You may be correct that it is getting more and more difficult to get BTC prices below $100k and to keep them below $100k, yet historically bitcoin has come back to touch upon the 200-WMA and even to sometimes temporarily go below the 200-WMA.. and it seems to me difficult to consider that such pattern is not going to continue with various extremes in BTC price movements that are also accompanied by both blow off tops and then over-correction.
Sure it could be possible that this time is going to be sufficiently different in order that such sub $100k levels are not reached again... yet even if that "this time is different" becomes true, there still seems to be some need to gravitate the 200-WMA upwardly, and currently the 200-WMA is merely at about $49k, and it is merely going up between $45 to $55 per day. Even if we can get the 200-WMA going up $100 per day, that is still ONLY going to bring the 200-WMA to barely touching upon $100k by the end of 2026.. so even in my thinking, even if we speculate that this time is different, I have my doubts that the amount of different can really completely disregard historical patterns, even if we are not necessarily bound to the historical patterns... but at the same time, it seems problematic to completely ignore historical patterns as if they were to not have any meaning and/or legitimacy in terms of outlining future possible parameters.
Today I see the market starting to recover and bitcoin is trading back above $105K. Anyone who accumulated on the dip the day before has seen how well that approach has worked so far - that's how the market rewards those who use it correctly. Don't be afraid when the market goes down for one reason or another - it will eventually recover for a reason.
Some people are hesitant to buy on dip - even with some of their capital, but the reality is that they are too often late to act, especially after the market recovers. It is okay to buy on a rise - accumulation can be done at any price, but when you take advantage of dip, you will obviously accumulate more bitcoin.
You are perfectly correct. Many investors actually hesitate to buy on dip to increase the volume of their Bitcoin starch but the problem is to be calculative enough and to be smart to leverage the dip and accumulate more Bitcoin because some fork set their targeted dip to buy and they keeping on waiting for Bitcoin to dip to their target before they will buy and by so doing the price will start to recover making them to missed the opportunity of accumulate more Bitcoin.
Congratulation to those that were able to leverage to accumulate more Bitcoin.
Anyone investor that is ready for the Dip shouldn't think twice when the Dip comes because it is always a great opportunity and an advantage to those set of investor but any investor who hasn't prepared for the Dip or does not have the capacity to double there investment should stay off from the market because trying to double your investment during the Dip when you are not prepared for it, is going to be the worst mistake someone will ever make in their accumulation journey. The Dip is always an opportunity for the prepared and not for the unprepared.
If we are regularly buying bitcoin, such as every week, when a dip comes, we might have extra money to buy more, yet we might not have any extra money to buy more. Either way, if we had been regularly buying bitcoin, then we still are likely in a position to not be worried about whether bitcoin prices dip or do not dip.
Sure, the longer that we are in bitcoin, then the more we have likely built up our systems of regularly buying bitcoin and otherwise managing our cashflows, and it could be possible that we have also been stacking away some dollars to be able to buy in the event that some dips might come about.. yet at the same time, whether we buy on dips or just buy regularly, we are likely more advantaged by the just buying regularly rather than strategizing around dips that may or may not happen.
In some sense, dips are inevitable in bitcoin, yet the dips are not necessarily going to go any lower than current BTC prices, so we might have dips in the future, but at the same time, such future dips might not even be at cheaper prices than current prices.
Historically, especially in my early BTC accumulation days, I would sometimes get excited to buy the dip, yet frequently the BTC price would just keep dipping, so I came to consider that whether the BTC price dipped or did not dip was not as important as just continuing to buy bitcoin on a regular and ongoing basis, which largely just meant that I would strive to make sure that I bought bitcoin every week and even within each week, I would try to catch dips, but still there was really no solid way to figure out which way the BTC price was going to be going in the short-term, even though there have always been folks proclaiming that they both knew where the BTC price was going and they also supposedly knew that we were going to be in the price location that we currently were...and after a while it became more and more clear that short term BTC price moves were not easy to figure out, yet it tended to seem to be reasonable to consider that the ongoing thesis that in the longer term bitcoin prices would be inclined more towards going up rather than down - even though the short term remained difficult to figure out.
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Buying regularly is the most correct strategy, by buying regularly in DCA an investor can get the best results in the long run, the market never shows the movement as we expect, it is never possible to predict when the market will go in which direction, so how do you wait to buy DIP when you do not know whether the market will actually DIP or not? You can never expect good results from such a strategy, rather you will have to face losses and disappointments many times, because the movement you are waiting for may never come.
So all in all, there can be no right strategy like DCA, those who have been doing such short-term trading since 4-5 years ago, and those who have been holding continuously through DCA since 4-5 years ago, if we compare both, then that trader has never been able to make the amount of profit that investor has already made, and I can say this with complete certainty.
If we look at the current big Bitcoin holders, we can understand how much success they have already achieved from Bitcoin. So, to be a real Bitcoin investor, you must have faith in the future, big companies have complete faith in Bitcoin, and this is why they are buying Bitcoin with such huge amounts of money, and because of this belief, they will definitely get its full results one day which will bring them a mountain of profits.
I think that you (ChocolateBitcoinK) are correct with your proclamation that the longer the timeline, then the more difficult it becomes for the trader to beat the guy who ongoingly accumulates bitcoin, yet the shorter the timeline, it can be more difficult to have confidence that long term accumulator had really beat the overwhelming majority of traders in that same period... and surely don't get me wrong, since I am not suggesting trading as a good idea.
Let's take an example from your timeline of 5 years, and let's say that 5 years ago, we had a guy who was in his mid 30s, and so maybe he had been saving and investing around 15% of his income for 10 years prior to getting into bitcoin, and he had an income of around $30k per year, and maybe he had accumulated an investment portfolio that was worth around $70k, and so 5 years ago, he decided to divert his 15% into bitcoin and to also divert around 15% of his then investment portfolio into bitcoin.
So 5 years ago, around mid 2020, he put $11k into bitcoin, so he got right around 1.16 BTC with an average purchase price around $9,500 per BTC.
He also immediately started to put 15% of his income (about
$100 per week) into bitcoin, so over the past 5 years, he invested right around $26k through DCAing and he got close to 0.9BTC.. So his total investment into bitcoin has been about $37k with an accumulated BTC stack of about
2.06 BTC, which has a 200-WMA value of about $101k and a BTC spot price value of $217k... .. which surely would not be a bad place to be right now.. even after ONLY 5 years investing into bitcoin.
It would be hard pressing to consider that very many traders would have had been able to show better performance than the BTC accumualtor during the last 5 years.
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We often make some wrong decisions about our financial situation without thinking about our financial situation. The more we hear about the deep reason behind it, the more effective the strategy will be and even within your capabilities, the more successful you will be. If you do not consider your financial situation and want beyond your capabilities, the more likely you are to lose. Some of our unrealistic plans become our losses. The best way to invest is to be disciplined, have confidence in yourself and have a basis for facing future risks for investment.
So I would say that no matter what the current price is, the lowest or highest; invest with certainty in your capabilities.You are speaking in gobble-dee-gook HOPE25
You believe that guys need some kind of a pep talk?
Many of us will come to bitcoin at differing points in our lives, so we likely need to figure out what our bitcoin strategy will be within our budget and then hopefully we will employ such strategy, learn along the way and potentially tweak our strategies as we go and through the process of learning.
Some of us are more capable of learning than others, yet it is likely that we are going to make mistakes along the way... so what are we going to do when we make various mistakes? How about we identify that we have various flaws, what are we going to do? We are merely going to tell ourselves that we are good and to have confidence in ourselves?
I will agree with you that our most likely better approach to investing into bitcoin relates to our figuring out our own budgets and then staying within our budgets while establishing and maintaining back up funds... so in that sense, there are needs to focus on making sure that we are staying within our own limits.. but it surely does not mean that we are necessarily starting from a good place in terms of where we are at and potentially figuring out which areas we might need to improve.
When Bitcoin fell below 100k, did you panic and sell or did you say DIP and buy? There was a good buying opportunity and Bitcoin recovered in just 1 day. It experienced an increase of over 5% in just less than 24 hours. I don't think people here will panic and sell, but there are so many uninformed people out there that many of them may have fallen into this trap.
How on earth are my going to know if there was people who sold and bought bitcoin at a dip. Well there might be people who sold but for sure there are people who bought because I fall into the category of people who took the opportunity of accumulating bitcoin, you see is something we don’t know when it will happen so it’s better to take advantage of the situation when it did occur. It’s better to take the opportunity of accumulating instead of panicking to sell. For sure I knew bitcoin was going to recover no matter the downturn.
But right now it might be extremely impossible to see Bitcoin fall below 100k, Well it’s quite unpredictable.
Holy shit Jostern. Are you exaggerating or what?
The BTC price is a mere 5% to 6% distance from $100k, and you are now proclaiming that it is impossible to go back below $100k?
Why do you feel a need to make extraordinary claims?
Sure. You might be correct, but I doubt that your odds are very high? Your odds of being correct might not even be greater than 50/50, yet you are proclaiming that it is "extremely impossible."
How do you define "extremely impossible?" Less than 5% odds? or some other number? Are you willing to bet based on such odds that you purportedly believe in?
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In as much as I believe in the long term goal of buying and holding bitcoin which is a very good strategy, I also do not conform to the statement you made which states that “In 10 to 20 years time from now, this current bitcoin price will be like buying when bitcoin was $10k.” Now if I may understand you clearly, you’re trying to say that the current bitcoin price will be on the increase in the next 10 to 20 years time. Anyone who understands the volatility of bitcoin won’t buy to such idea 100% because there’s also a possibility that in the next 10 to 20 years time, bitcoin price may also go down. There are several factors which affects the price of bitcoin and most of these factors are generally unknown to us and we can’t control them. Well, as an investor whose initial strategy is based on the long term goal of accumulating and holding, we don’t really have to pay too much attention to the market price or situation, our focus should be on our consistent accumulation of bitcoin and build up your portfolio with your discretionary income.
Efven though bitcoin's price is not guaranteed to go up, it is also not outrageous to proclaim that bitcoin's price might be 10x higher than it is today in a period of 10-20 years. Those are quite conservative numbers, since it could well end up being the case that bitcoin prices are 100x to 1,000x higher than today within a 10-20 year time line.
Sure, at the same time, it is possible that BTC prices go down rather than up, so it is good to account for a variety of possible scenario - even though at the same time, we likely would not be putting equal efforts or even close to equal efforts into scenarios that we might be considered to be a lot less likely and/or even extremely unlikely scenarios.
Many of us should recognize and appreciate that it is possible to prepare for multiple scenarios at the same time.
When Bitcoin fell below 100k, did you panic and sell or did you say DIP and buy? There was a good buying opportunity and Bitcoin recovered in just 1 day. It experienced an increase of over 5% in just less than 24 hours. I don't think people here will panic and sell, but there are so many uninformed people out there that many of them may have fallen into this trap.
When a market condition present itself like this just no that alot of people has been overpowered my the panic mindset to sell everything even at lost, the mentality of uninformed people in Bitcoin is that the moment they made a conclusion on there mind about were Bitcoin will not fall to anything that disrupt that price they thought negatively they starts giving up to sell, so actually that's the difference between an optimistic person with the knowledge of barriers and fluctuation in the price and people who knows nothing but only the optimistic that is always going to be up with no decrease.
Being optimistic is indeed very necessary when we invest in bitcoin, because if we are not optimistic about the assets we have bought, it is like buying an object that we do not know its use. But in my opinion the most important thing that will strengthen us in investing in bitcoin, is actually not just knowing about the fluctuation of the bitcoin price. But about our initial intention to invest in bitcoin. In my opinion, this plays a fairly important role in the sustainability of our bitcoin investment. Because if we already intend to invest in the long term in bitcoin and we have determined a purchasing strategy such as DCA, I think we will avoid panic.
Because basically people who panic when they see the fluctuation of the bitcoin price, it means that those people do not have the right initial intention. Because if the initial intention is to invest in the long term, for example 10 years or more. Certainly before reaching the 10 year period, I think we don't need to care about the price of bitcoin or its fluctuations. Because why, because whether bitcoin is currently going down or up, it has no effect on long-term investors. Because the point is if bitcoin goes down they won't sell it and vice versa when the price of bitcoin goes up. So that's why our initial intention when investing in Bitcoin is very important.
It seems that we would not invest into bitcoin if we were not optimistic about it. At the same time, we can adjust our position size to coincide with our level of optimism.. If our optimism is high then our position size would be relatively high, and if our optimism is low then our position size would be relatively low. Accordingly, there should be no need to invest one way or the other outside of our self-assessment of our level of optimism in regards to the asset (in this case, bitcoin).
Persistent and consistent accumulation for an entire Bitcoin cycle are a more valuable and effective investment than aggressive buying from available funds.
Each of us should adjust our level of aggressiveness within our own assessments, and so our level of persistence, consistency, regularity in regards to our bitcoin investment versus how much we might put into our back up funds versus how much we might spend on consumption or on other investments may well just be chosen levels in regards to the extent that we are striving to be on the whimpy side of our bitcoin emphasis and/or focus or if we might work towards being on the aggressive side in regards to how much of our discretionary income we are putting into bitcoin as compared to putting into other places that might be available to us for putting such discretionary income.
In other words, each of us chooses our level of whimpiness or aggressiveness and our persistence and consistency might merely be manifestations of the choices that the we had made... meaning that we can be more consistent or less consistent, more persistent or less consistent, more regular or less regular.. etc etc etc.. the mere fact that we are one or another is a matter of degree and not absolutes in and of themselves.
Simple.
If these matters that relate to the buying of bitcoin are so "simple," then why do we have 904 pages of posts batting around such matters?
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Being overly optimistic about investing can cause problems for an investor later. For example, if a person is optimistic after investing that his investment will make $4 or $5 profit immediately after investing or if he thinks that his investment will never go down. If someone thinks like this, he will be forced to sell his investment later. Because when he sees a decline in the market, he will get scared and then he may decide to sell his investment.
I think it is very natural for a new investor to be scared. Because an investor has never seen a decline after investing. For example, seeing a decline without investing is one thing and seeing a decline in the market after investing is another. Because when you invest, if you see a decline in the market, fear will work in your mind. When you see a decline in the market without investing, you will not be afraid and will not give much importance to the decline. When you invest your money, it is very natural to be scared at first.
It seems natural to be scared at various points within an investment, and surely it helps for the investment to be in profits, yet even a person who is considerably in profits may well start to get scared if the BTC price drops 50%, 70% or some higher amount. A person could go from profits to losses or even he could go from 3x to 10x profits to only a fraction of his earlier (on paper) profits. These can be difficult for anyone to deal with, een if they might have more experience and/or even if they may well have more of a "profits" cushion.