Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 25, 2025, 11:48:52 PM

Quote from: Paashaas on June 25, 2025, 10:34:31 AM

$107,000 is an acceptable recovery entry.

Oh gosh?

I hope guys are not trying to play bitcoin in those kinds of ways. That would be an inferior approach to bitcoin and likely to result in inferior outcomes.

Even though I have noticed that when it comes to bitcoin, there have been and continue to be quite a few folks averse to making money... and I hate to say that it is easy, even though a reasonable default play for making money in bitcoinlandia over the past 4-10 years and even longer has largely been to error on the side of ongoing BTC accumulation through buying and/or HODL.. and surely if anyone in bitcoin must sell any of dee cornz, don't sell too many since such bitcoiners should be erroring on the side of accumulating through buying and if no more money, then merely HODLing.

At the same time, surely the longer that a guy had been accumulating the my lil precious and mostly not selling it, then either he is going to reach overaccumulation status through his ongoing buying or alternatively he will likely reach overaccumulation status with the mere passage of time, which likely (or should) end up causing his holdings to transition into overaccumulation status merely from his mostly erroring on the side of HODL and not selling too many too soon.

Not necessarily easy in all circumstances, yet still a kind of cheat code that feels a bit unfair to some of us who have gone through a cycle or two or more.

In other words.. don't be getting in and out..

Just be getting in and mostly staying in.

Though there are no guarantees, a continued erroring on the side of buying bitcoin without selling seems to continue to be the better of paths forward.. perhaps an ongoing cheat code.

Quote from: OutOfMemory on June 25, 2025, 11:08:52 AM

Quote from: Shishir99 on June 25, 2025, 09:28:46 AM

Quote from: OgNasty on June 24, 2025, 05:44:15 PM

This thread is getting a bit heated with religion talks.

I was talking about the war, and it is philipma1957 who came up with some stupid stats and brought religion.

To be fair, Bitcoin is like a religion, too.

EDIT: But better Cheesy

A bitcoin religion likely requires some level of action. hint hint hint.. ongoing buying until reaching "enough."

Quote from: SaintFlow on June 25, 2025, 01:15:45 PM

Quote from: OutOfMemory on June 25, 2025, 11:08:52 AM

[edited out]

More a cult or cultish. I mean I have faith and some claim to have seen bitcoin-jesus or have stigma like laser eyes.
But Santoshi White paper or the source code hardly are holly scripture.

Wait - you are right - it is a religion. I too crave tax exemption.

I never really tended to like the "bitcoin is religious" claims... there is something off about such claims, even though there is some faith coupled with reinforcing actions... and yeah.. magical internet money is kind of fun.

Above is the best I could find.

I did a quickie search, but I could not find an image of the magical internet of money guy blowing glitter into our faces.

Quote from: vapourminer on June 25, 2025, 04:28:58 PM

Quote from: El duderino_ on June 25, 2025, 03:36:28 PM

all time low btc on exchanges, been reading that for months, but today again numerous times...

maybe this time is different?

maybe.

im ready to move some corn to exchanges once my magic price arrives. not till then lol

Whoooo...

magic....

I like it..

An aura of mysteriousness too.

I know that quite a few of us.. including yours truly are getting a bit anxious about this whole matter.. but feelings of anxiousness and/or that is not going to happen, is a kinds of pattern.. which is part of the amazingness for whatever does end up happening.

If I describe my various plans at various not reached price points.. normies tend to conclude that I am a looney.. and sure, maybe I even tentatively think that I might be a wee bit of a looney.. since I am not exactly counting on the various price points as if they have to happen, but I still have my tentative plan in place in the event that some of them, or all of them end up happening...

Having the "I told you so" in your back pocket is likely another practiced contingency plan.

Don't want to necessarily play the "I told you so" card prior to it being warranted.

Reminds me of my July 2022 relative who was rebutting my assertions that $19k-ish was surely not a bad place to be accumulating bitcoin, and he told me that it also could be the top, and I could not really deny the possibility that "it could have had been the top" - even though we subsequently found out how that "could be the top" ended up playing out.. .around 5.5x greater prices (spot value) since then... and yeah the 200-WMA barely doubled in that same 3-ish years timeline... either way.. a bit more than 2x for 200-WMA or right around 5.5x for spot price (so far).. The "I told you so," is still there. and he seems to remain skeptical and partially a doubter based on likely pride and/or refusal to reverse his own previous assessments including how strongly he had been bad mouthing bitcoin behind the scenes in and around those times and various other historical repetitions of getting in and out and continuing to want to not be wrong.. .. ego or what?

Quote from: WatChe on June 25, 2025, 05:20:54 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 22, 2025, 07:56:13 AM

I have pretty high doubts that we will get within less than 25% of the 200-WMA in 2025, and right now the 200-WMA is nearly $49k and it is moving up by around $40-ish per day ($35 to $55 per day)... so by the time that BTC prices go down (if they did), the 200-WMA would continue to go up, which almost makes it possible to assert that sub $70k will never be reached again... or at least it is 50/50 bettable... and I would take that bet, if you are interested for 50/50.

Dear JJG, if you remember my reply from Mar 01, 2025. I said, in gambling winner is the one who knows when to stop.

I think that my parents raised me badly.

Quote from: WatChe on June 25, 2025, 05:20:54 PM

Luckily we have ceasefire in conflict b/w Iran and Israel, Oil is down and Bitcoin is going up once again.

Fair enough - even though we can never know for sure if the UP is sustainable and enduring or not, we still likely can recognize that there is a certain amount of value in terms of identifying momentum - including the defining of what might be bettable and even the assigned odds might change based on perceptions of momentum.

Quote from: WatChe on June 25, 2025, 05:20:54 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 22, 2025, 07:56:13 AM

Regarding 2026. Sure it is possible (but not a given) that the BTC price will touch upon or even go below the 200-WMA, yet it seems quite likely that we are going to be starting 2026 with a 200-WMA that is right around a minimum of $70k and we will be ending 2026 with likely a 200-WMA of right around $95k.. .. .. So sure right now it still seems quite possible that we coudl be visiting or revising sub $100k prices, unless we are lucky enough to experience some kinds of upcoming BTC price runs that can drag the 200-WMA to higher levels.

There's gotta be some potential bettables in there.

To be very honest JJG I don't do much tech analysis about Bitcoin, I just buy and hodl but not indefinitely.

I don't change my strategies in any meaningful way based on any short-term expectations that I have, and surely it is easy to get things wrong based on expectations in regards to short-term, which I consider myself frequently getting things wrong in regards to various short-term expectations, even though it can be difficult to stop considering how reassessments of recent happenings might contribute towards some kind of plausible theory where the BTC price might be going in the short-term.. and surely the longer term BTC HODLers likely already have mostly fueled up their BTC supply, as compared with the more recent entrants who are in the process of building up their BTC holdings. .and even though some of the newer entrants might be com plaining or concerned that they are late, as compared with the longer term entrants, there still are plenty of no coiners and low coiners out there who either have not gotten started or are barely getting started in their bitcoin journey..

Even yourself, WatChe, many of us might starting to refer to guys like you as OGs, since you have more than a whole bitcoin cycle under your belt... 5.5 years surely is not a bad place to be, even though some guys get distracted into shitcoins or even trading bitcoin, and they might even be from parts of the world where their own governments are working against their abilities to get into bitcoin without hostilities.. or they might have needs to avoid hostilities, which you may have mentioned something like that previously, too.

Quote from: WatChe on June 25, 2025, 05:20:54 PM

So far this strategy has given me a lot as I installed Solar System last year and now I don't pay electricity bill, I bought new car this year and all that's possible because of Bitcoin. Enjoy the Bitcoin profit as much as you can.

Oh yeah.. now I remember. You are taking profits.. so it is likely going to be harder to call you an O.G in the future, and I can recall all kinds of guys through the years referring to so many of the toys that they bought with their bitcoin "profits," and there is almost no fucking way that they are even going to be able to get back a fraction of the coins that they spent for heir short-to-medium term pleasures (and improvements to their quality of life).

Of course, no one can make decisions for you in regards to the trade offs between present consumption and delayed gratification... and surely, I consider that there is a lot of power in a couple of cycles of mostly accumulating and mostly selling small amounts of corn.. and sure opinions can vary and guys are responsible for their own choices, since each of us has to live with the consequences of our choices, that's for sure.

Surely I have my own variety of costs per coin, even though I am thinking of converting from $1k per coin up to a higher number, but surely I can recall some portions of bitcoin that I had accumulated (bought) for something like $60 in mid-2015 (so I got something like 0.24 BTC), and then in early 2021, I had made some purchase for an item that was around $9k, and so I ended up spending 0.15 of those BTC.. and so I still had around 0.09 BTC left in that address (wallet).. so then over the last few years I spent several times from that wallet and/or address with transactions of $30 to $200, and currently, without having had added any more value, I still have more than 0.05 BTC in that wallet... so there can surely be some value in regards to not getting overly anxious to spend your bitcoin, even if there might b some reasons to spend some of that BTC from time to time.

Quote from: OgNasty on June 25, 2025, 06:27:36 PM

Quote from: bangjoe on June 25, 2025, 02:26:38 PM

Quote from: OutOfMemory on June 25, 2025, 11:08:52 AM

[edited out]

I can get on board with that. I'm actually shocked at the lack of interest in Bitcoin I'm still seeing. For a second there some people got interested when we were headed up to $100K for the first time, but the correction down to $80K chased them all away in short order. I'm at a loss at this point. I don't even try to orange pill my acquaintances anymore. I just make sure to make a passing comment so they can't yell at me later for not telling them to buy Bitcoin. I'll tell them now, but only once. If they miss out, it is no longer on me.

Some acquaintances get absolutely angry.. as if they are being sold something... so it can sometimes be aggravating to even throw in the zingers from time to time that are meant to incentivize them to get started in bitcoin rather than antagonize them against it...

And for sure, if you (Ognasty) are even close to as annoying in real life as you are on the forum, then I can definitely see how some normies (acquaintances of real world OgNasty) might want to do the exact opposite of whatever you might be suggesting them to do, even if you might have suggested a thing that is for their own good.

Cheesy

Quote from: BALIK on June 25, 2025, 06:39:49 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 21, 2025, 12:56:00 AM

Now you seem to be saying "up before down," so why say it? Why make proclamations that are opposite? Maybe you are wanting to say both, but still neither is convincing except to say that we could have a break out in either direction, and maybe up has odds that are slightly greater than down, since we are in a bull market.

Your part about our bullmarket dragging out into mid-2026 seems to completely ignore LFC's tried and true conceptualization of a 2025 bull market that is mostly wrapping up in either 3rd quarter or at latest 4th quarter of 2025.

Personally, I have no problem acknowledging that cycles still exist and mostly fall within their historical 4 year timeframes, while at the same time retaining enough statistical variance (or is it "probability variance"?) that they do not need to fall exactly within historical 4-year timeframes in order to still be largely continuing to follow such 4-year patterns that involve human behavior and no real abilities to mathematically pin down exactly when the over-exuberance might end up occurring that results in buy support no longer being strong enough to be able to prevent the BTC price from gravitating downwardly.

By the way, BALIK, I hate to send you an smerit for saying nearly exactly the opposite from your earlier post, but I couldn't help myself... even though I remain a bit bothered by the seeming inconsistencies..... perhaps since you seem to be proclaiming consistency as one of your values within at least one of the posts.. .. but then, again, what else is new around these here parts?? ?? Guys, including but not necessarily limited to, yours truly, sometimes are "all over the place"... It is not like forum threads like this one need to rise to the level of scholarly prestige (analysis), especially since frequently there are a lot of things going on that may well affect BTC price dynamics that touch on a lot of areas of life.. including that at any given time, all of the ducks seem to be lined up to go in one direction, and then the opposite ends up happening.. Cry

Haha, fair call JayJuanGee. It is true I might have sounded like I was conjuring both "up before down" and "down before up" vibes. But that is kind of the game, isn't it? It is rare to see Bitcoin cycle play out clean.

It still seems possible to say that the BTC price could go either way without internally contradicting yourself. Don't you think?

Quote from: BALIK on June 25, 2025, 06:39:49 PM

What I am leaning into is that macro indication, accumulation, longterm hodlers, low latency, all are suggesting we are not in the blowoff top zone so far. I totally get LFC's Q3-Q4 2025 argument. Just saying there is always room for divergence, could stretch, could snap.

Sure.

We could have a base case scenario that we expect to be the most likely of any scenarios while at the same time realizing that the peak could come at a different time than expected or that the top could end up overshooting or undershooting, yet we still might consider our base case as the most likely while accounting for possible alternative scenarios. Emphasis of the base case (even if it might end up being wrong) is not internally inconsistent.

Quote from: BALIK on June 25, 2025, 06:39:49 PM

And consistency? I really aim for it, but hey, we are all surfers in this chaos. Wink

I have made similar claims about each of us being walking bags of inconsistencies.. So I will acknowledge that a lack of consistency to be a shared weakness that likely exists within an overwhelming majority of normies, which reminds the Ralph Waldo Emerson assertion that "A Foolish Consistency is the Hobgoblin of Little Minds," which likely means that any of us can end up going too far with our expectations for consistency in places that such consistencies might rarely exist.

You still might deserve a bat slappening for the intensity of your simultaneously arguing of both sides.... Tongue

but hey.. whatever... let's let bygones be. Cheesy

Quote from: Biodom on June 25, 2025, 08:32:06 PM

Quote from: vapourminer on June 25, 2025, 04:28:58 PM

Quote from: El duderino_ on June 25, 2025, 03:36:28 PM

all time low btc on exchanges, been reading that for months, but today again numerous times...
maybe this time is different?

maybe.
im ready to move some corn to exchanges once my magic price arrives. not till then lol

I know, people don't really like to talk about the 'pie in the sky' numbers like $21 mil/btc in 21 years (by 2046), which was provided by M. Saylor (Bitcoin Prague speech that i linked yesterday).
That said, there was a funny factoid there...at $21 mil/btc, someone is a billionaire with 48 btc.
That said, MS also proposed to "save" $50K into bitcoin yearly, which is not affordable for an average dude, so he may not really understand the common folk well.

Even though some of his ideas can be inspirational, he does seem a bit out of touch within terms of some normal numbers, and also there sometimes are needs for moderation of the use of debt, even though he is likely directionally correct that debt can be used towards your advantage when you are able to identify places to put the money that are likely to outperform the cost of the debt..

Quote from: Biodom on June 25, 2025, 08:32:06 PM

I heard the opposite (to trying to become a billionaire) point of view on The Prof G (Galloway) podcast.
He said that he refused to strife to become a billionaire, even though there was a path.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=736vqEuvNq0

Once he hit his 'number', which from the other numbers he discussed probably was in the vicinity of $100mil (maybe $50-200 mil), he either spends the surplus yearly or gives to charity.

Some guys know when they have enough.

I know a guy who bought 20 bitcoin in 2015, and to this day, he continues to proclaim that 20 is enough.

Cheesy

Quote from: sirazimuth on June 25, 2025, 10:59:34 PM

Quote from: OgNasty on June 24, 2025, 05:44:15 PM

Quote from: OgNasty on June 24, 2025, 05:44:15 PM

..... Think about how awesome it is that they hate Trump so much you know they are panic selling every single one of these dips. ....

So do you have any proof for that statement you just pulled out of your arse? ...didn't think so.

I hate to side with OgNasty, since he can be a bit irritating, yet we likely should acknowledge that there likely is some truth that some folks just strive to do the opposite of Trump, and surely Trump inspires that kind of behavior, which sometimes can end up working to the disadvantage of the folks who get triggered merely by Trump.. .. If I was not already in bitcoin prior to Trump and I could not see through his seemingly grifting side agendas, I might well get distracted into thinking that bitcoin is the same as crypto and it is not a good thing.

We also have some similar bullshit with the convoluting of stable coins and hopefully not too many people lose sight of their need to accumulate and hold bitcoin.. not those various versions of the dollar that are losing value at the same rate as the dollar.

Quote from: sirazimuth on June 25, 2025, 10:59:34 PM

Quote from: OgNasty on June 24, 2025, 05:44:15 PM

...with each Trump win ...

"In recent months, 96% of his administration’s federal district court rulings have gone against him."

For sure Trump and his various appointees tend to be vindictive petty and purposefully attempting to undermine a large variety of legal institutions, which surely is irritating for a lot of folks who have built lives around various institutions and even legal principles and precedent. some of the tactics of Trump and his folk are surely sickening, even when they might come up with some various possible arguable legitimate reasons for their various kinds of hate and simultaneous power grabs..and maybe even diversions..

you lost some quotation marks along the way Roll Eyes

re myself, your numbers are just from a theoretical example, nothing that corresponds to reality.
you also can say that it was 0.63 btc or, perhaps, 0.42 btc (if the idea is to make it divisible by 21) Grin