I have seen this "study" elsewhere I think, and I'm not very impressed with River's "science".

Only having read it superficially I already found an error. In Argentina Bitcoin was never banned, and also not "legalized for payments in 2023". What happened in 2023 was that a law enabled you to request a payment of a debt in Bitcoin. Until 2023, this wasn't possible, your counterparty always would have had the option to pay the equivalent in Argentina's local currency. Now you can enforce Bitcoin payments (if someone is willing to enter such a contract with you). Also in Bolivia there was no outright ban but a banking ban.

Regarding the number of Bitcoin users, they're probably taken from "Triple A" (see here). The interesting thing is that despite of the bull market the growth compared to previous estimates (crypto.com's reports until 2024 for example) is quite low. If I remember correctly crypto.com estimated 200 millon Bitcoin users for early 2024, so the growth in that mega-bullish year was only of 40 million. Of course that could be correct because it's a hint that Bitcoin's growth was fueled by institutional investors in 2024 and not by retail (as they also mention in the report).

(Edit) I've just seen crypto.com estimated 298 million for early 2024, so their numbers are quite different. Crypto.com estimates a 13% increase for 2024, which is low for a bullish year. They're estimating 337 million users as of early 2025.

Of course that could be correct because it's a hint that Bitcoin's growth was fueled by institutional investors in 2024 and not by retail (as they also mention in the report).

Nevertheless the study contains some interesting facts, like the Lightning network "growth paradox" (more volume but less transactions), which indicates that LN is used for exchange arbitrage.

PS: There's a typo in your link code, please correct it it looks ugly

I have seen this "study" elsewhere I think, and I'm not very impressed with River's "science".

Only having read it superficially I already found an error. In Argentina Bitcoin was never banned, and also not "legalized for payments in 2023". What happened in 2023 was that a law enabled you to request a payment of a debt in Bitcoin. Until 2023, this wasn't possible, your counterparty always would have had the option to pay the equivalent in Argentina's local currency. Now you can enforce Bitcoin payments (if someone is willing to enter such a contract with you). Also in Bolivia there was no outright ban but a banking ban.

Regarding the number of Bitcoin users, they're probably taken from "Triple A" (see here). The interesting thing is that despite of the bull market the growth compared to previous estimates (crypto.com's reports until 2024 for example) is quite low. If I remember correctly crypto.com estimated 200 millon Bitcoin users for early 2024, so the growth in that mega-bullish year was only of 40 million. Of course that could be correct because it's a hint that Bitcoin's growth was fueled by institutional investors in 2024 and not by retail (as they also mention in the report).

Nevertheless the study contains some interesting facts, like the Lightning network "growth paradox" (more volume but less transactions), which indicates that LN is used for exchange arbitrage.

PS: There's a typo in your link code, please correct it it looks ugly