Quote from: piramida on May 05, 2014, 09:24:06 AM

There is only one support level, at $260, wake me up when it is breached. Before that, unsubstantiated panic selling or gambling, but nothing to do with investing. And believe me, most hodlers do not even consider this dip to $400 as anything remarkable but a nice buying opportunity.

Complete fkn delusion on toast! BTW. we have two more days to break out above $500 like you assured everyone that Bitcoin would. Seems that a break below $400 is more likely but nevermind eh?

Quote from: r34tr783tr78 on May 05, 2014, 08:53:51 AM

But I'm going to write only that on a market, keeping the same opinion no matter what happens, no matter how many support levels are breached, is a dangerous perspective. Sharks love people with fixed ideas. Usually, they only change them on the wrong moment.

Up until recently, I had a compulsive Bitcoin gambling problem. 'Compulsive Gambling because I would look to take a trade at almost any point I could delude myself into believing was an opprtune moment to take one. This meant along with my 'wise' trades where it was clear to me that the writing was on the wall such as calling Bitcoin definite short from $520, a trade I never took cos I am 'off it'; I made lots of little crappy trades that I would drop out of when the market started to go in the wrong direction. Stupid fkn trades that would nibble into my profit levels. However, the one thing I noticed with 99% of my losing trades, is that had I only held out for a few days or even a few hours in some circumstances, then my losing trades would generally have turned into winners, or at least break evens.

My last short was about two weeks ago at ~$420, after the bounce from $340, with maxed leveraged. Yeah, I knew I was chasing missed opportunity (I had a dream that Bitcoin was about to take a landslide but was on holiday so never placed the trade) and I knew I was chasing the market, but since I was convinced of Bitcoins overall downward trend, how could I possibly lose if only I had the nerve to hold out until the trade came good?

Bitcoin dipped back down under $400. So far so Good.
Bitcoin bounced back up to just under my buy-in price. Bounces are to be expected. Trade was still good.
A flood of 'buying power' on Huobi pushed price up to $440 very quickly. Lying cheating fkn Chinese manipulating b'stards! That is me in the red.
More buying power on Huobi pushed price up to $470. Urghhh. Still, stick to my guns and everything will come good.
$495 now. Holy shit, this is standing to be the biggest trading loss ever, but stick to guns and everything will come good.
Again on Huobi, buying surge (read hooky short squeeze) kicks in, Bitcoin up to $520. Holy fkn shit! around 60% loss on capital. Point of complete liquididation comes at $546.67!

Am now in seriously in sweating blood mode. What to do? What to do? Go have a shower. You are gonna hold it, you are gonna hold it, you are gonna hold it, you are gonna hold it. Bitcoin back down to $495. Cool, sell 5 BTC to raise liquidation price to $565. Bitcoin goes back up to $512! ATERDHGADFHGAYDSFGH CLOSE TRADE WITH MARKET ORDER!

That is a reverse example of the psychology of a holder with a fixed idea in their heads. It was the first time that I have ever traded Bitcoin long or short with a 'fixed' idea in my head. Usually I am guilty of bowing out too quickly to counter trend winds, so this time, I vowed to 'HODL my SHOTR'! And that is what Bitcoin does to concrete minds with fixed views or objectives. The fact that Bitcoin hit just a few cents above my original position liquidation price (Bitfinex to $547) tells me all I need to know about the trading philosophy I adopted for just this one trade. As I type, Bitcoin is right back down at my 'break even' buy-in price. Even as I closed my position, I knew that I was closing my short on a fantastic shorting opportunity. But such are the psychological pressures of holding out rigidly against the winds of the market. Everyone is liable to make the same mistakes and will make the same mistakes. I endured just a few days of the market going against me (max leverage never helped and neither did the psychological conditions of losing 100% of funds in Bitfinex trading account). Some around here have been holding Bitcoins for months. Many thought they had hit the jackpot only to find that they are now treading water. Many others are now underwater, still praying to their god HODL on a daily basis but with the winds of the market blowing into their faces the whole time.

When Bitcoin breaches $380 (again) and then $340, plenty people who vowed to hold their Bitcoins, will actually impulse sell their Bitcoins, knowing that they are most likely making a grave mistake over the long(er) term as Bitcoin will surely bounce back up higher sooner or later, but who are simply unable to take the psychological pressure of the chance of 'losing it all'.