Quote from: Derekfunds on Today at 09:15:01 AM

Quote from: Sticky Bomb on Today at 08:36:40 AM

Quote from: SuperBitMan on June 26, 2025, 09:57:08 AM

Again if you don't want to accumulate during any dip since you have reached overaccumulation and you have started selling I will advise you engage in selling only your profit, what do I mean, if you are holding 10 Bitcoin and the current price is $107k and you reached your overaccumulation stage when the price $98k what you will do is selling only what has added to the $98k.
This strategy is not for everyone is for just who are very much interested in continuing holding even after reaching overaccumulation stage, but also eager to taste Bitcoin profit.

I think over accumulation should be measured in quantity and not market value. This is because if we continue to focus on market value we might make mistakes and unintentionally get even below our accumulation target.

You do have a target and that should be your main reference, even if you intend taking profit, be sure to only target taking profits from the quantity that keeps you in overaccumulations status. for example if you initially set out to accumulate 9BTC and you already have 10BTC, then it is obvious you are already in overaccumulation status, if you would take profits at all within your holding period(which I would not intentionally advise), you should focus on taking profits only out of the 1BTC that keeps you in over accumulation and that would be a better option instead of basing your judgement on the price increase.

Measuring our overaccumulation with market value seems weird and it some how shows lack of understanding. Target is really important because it is what drive or move people and another thing is determination and discipline, determination is what will make an investor wake up anytime they see or observe they are slacking in their pursuit. But then again, some people have target and they are determined and disciplined but they don't have adequate or no resources to make it happen and in case like this it will become very hard to meet up.

I personally like measuring bitcoin value based on the 200-WMA because it is the trade-weighted weekly prices for bitcoin over the prior 4 years, and so there seems to be a bit of safeness in that in terms of it is way less volatile and it can help to see how far above or below the current spot price is as compared with the 200-WMA.. .. even though surely if any bitcoin is bought or sell it is going to take place at the spot price. .yet if we are mostly planning on holding our BTC, then we are not planning on selling large portions of our BTC at any given time, yet we could consider the extent to which we might manage our bitcoin holdings in terms of how far away it is from the 200-WMA.

Surely, a person could measure value based on a fraction of the spot price, and maybe suggest a BTC value that is 50% of the spot price, and even though that would take away some of the volatility, it still may well remain a bit of an erratic way of measuring BTC value, even if it is less volatile than spot price.

Quote from: Lidger on Today at 10:22:46 AM

For most investors, getting started is the hardest step, but if you start investing by considering this difficult step as easy, then continuing to invest consistently becomes an easy matter.

This is true that getting started can involve a lot of dedication of mental space and then just putting some system in place... and it likely is very important for everyone with a discretionary income to get started investing into bitcoin, even if the starting amount is ONLY for a very small amount.. they can allow their active participation help to allow them to ease into paying more and more attention to bitcoin..and maybe coming around to realizing its ongoing importance.

Quote from: IceLincoln on Today at 10:28:08 AM

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Quote from: IceLincoln on June 26, 2025, 08:03:07 AM

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Quote from: Dorkylickjj on March 06, 2024, 08:50:37 AM

What's your take on this? Given the period we're in is it buy time or sell time?

For someone like me, I can't say this is sell time cause it's still very early, I'll have to accumulate and hoard as much as I can for like 10 years before I could consider selling and that's what every investor that just started hodling for about few years or a year ago should consider, we still have lots to achieve so it's definitely not sell time even though the market seems friendly currently and trending upwards.

Well for someone that's held for a decade, two decades, etc this period can be their sale time, don't get me wrong the can sale some stash to diversify to other options I mean investment options but would still continue buying at any given opportunity with the DCA.

I think those who have held bitcoin for a long time like a decade or more, Sold when we first hit the psychological milestone of $100k, though not entirely all and there are still those holding on to their stash. The answer to Dorkylick question is based on personal investment goals of individuals cos what might be sell time for Mr A might be a Buy time for Mr B depending on their goals and time of investment. I don’t think there’s any investor that will sell all of their stash It’ll normally be part.
Generally I think now is buy time considering bitcoin jus hit $100K few months ago and we’ve experienced atleast two pullbacks. Bitcoin is just gathering momentum to move up higher so I’ll consider now a buy, plus bitcoin is yet to hit it’s peak so buying now is potentially still early.

You are contradicting yourself a bit IceLincoln... and you seem to be overly relying on some arbitrary amount, such as $100k to presume that there are any needs for long term holders to take much if any profits around that price point.

Yeah I get how My point might seem contradicting with me saying buy/sell time is dependent on individual investment goals and also saying now is buy time (though I was responding to both comments above).
No Matter what we say on when to buy or sell the final decision lies with what an individual has planned, we can only just advice.

There still are parameters within the situation of any particular person that justifies better and/or worse choices, and an overwhelming majority of the world's population are low coiners are no coiners.. so it seems to be crazy to presume that maybe they have bitcoin and maybe they don't and blah blah blah.. when an overwhelming majority of folks actually do not have any bitcoin or hardly any bitcoin... even the folks who have been in bitcoin for a while hardly have any bitcoin, so I can hardly relate to any suggestion that the situation is "just do what you want" since currently we have so many folks who are way underallocated to bitcoin.

Quote from: IceLincoln on Today at 10:28:08 AM

So If I’m to give an advice of what to do considering the statement of the question “Given the period we're in is it buy time or sell time?” I’ll say NOW is buy time.

It may well currently be mostly buy time based on an overwhelming majority of normies having no bitcoin or not hardly any bitcoin.. right?

Quote from: IceLincoln on Today at 10:28:08 AM

Using 100k as a parameter because it was the last targeted ATH we experienced because most investors tend to sell partly after hitting a targeted ATH. So people who had held long must have already sold partly before now and are now trying to accumulate more. Hence, we’re past selling time.
I was only trying to create a base for my decision of saying why now it’s a buy time despite all the up and down movements.

Still hardly makes any sense.. since even if we account for the 9 individual factors, perceptions of BTC price as compared to other places to put value is only one of the nine factors and surely it can be a BIG "so what?" regarding what others (including longer term bitcoiners) are doing or have been doing, and have difficulties imagining anyone really being advantaged in their fucking around with selling bitcoin around $100k - even though surely some longer term bitcoiners might have enough bitcoin that it does not really matter too much if they shave off some of their bitcoin around $100k or maybe they had sold some BTC at various lower prices in the last few years.

Quote from: SuperBitMan on Today at 11:03:23 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 05:05:28 AM

Quote from: SuperBitMan on June 26, 2025, 09:57:08 AM

Again if you don't want to accumulate during any dip since you have reached overaccumulation and you have started selling I will advise you engage in selling only your profit, what do I mean, if you are holding 10 Bitcoin and the current price is $107k and you reached your overaccumulation stage when the price $98k what you will do is selling only what has added to the $98k.

You are going to measure whether you reached overaccumulation status based on spot price?
So how are you going to manage that?

Changes in spot price is going to knock you out of overaccumulation status?
Sure, it is possible to have such a system, but you likely need to figure out some way of dealing with volatility.
I think that part of the reason that I like to assess overaccumulation based on the 200-WMA (and/or bottom prices) is because the 200-WMA has tended to continuously move up, and also the spot price is usually above the 200-WMA... so that gives a bit of additional cushion to attempt to deal with likely inevitable BTC price volatility.

I believe that it is not impossible to assess that you have reached overaccumuation status based on spot prices, but you have to figure out how to make sure that you are not falling in and out of overaccumulation status merely based on 5-10% price movements... so there likely needs to be some built in ways of dealing with such volatility, especially if you are largely planning to stay in bitcoin rather than put your money into inferior assets, such as the dollar, some other fiat or some dollar denominated asset that is also inevitably losing value.. and it seems that part of the reason to be attempting to value wealth and to keep wealth in bitcoin is because it seems that over the longer term it is holding its value better than fiat, even accounting for inflation and/or seemingly inevitable fiat debasement.

JJG the point I was trying to make there was that when someone has reached overaccumulation stage and he is ready to start selling his Bitcoin he should be doing that once the price doubled, I was finding it difficult to give a more simple explanation that was why I used that example in trying to explain when the price doubled one can sell but I didn't get the explanation very well.

Ok... sure. .there could be situations in which guys might put some plan into place in which they are authorizing themselves to sell based on the BTC price, and their perception or their having had reached some semblance of overaccumulation status... so the mere fact that the BTC price doubled might not be enough to justify starting to sell if the person has not yet accumulated enough bitcoin.. which another problem could be selling outof one hand and buying out of the other hand, which it may well be better to just keep buying in order to not overly complicated matters, and then once overaccumulation status is reached then it might start to make sense to have various price points that sales are allowed, such as doubling from the current price or maybe the authorization had already been made when BTC prices were at some lower price point, so then there was an authorization to sell up to a certain portion of the BTC (such as you suggested 5-10% based on a doubling from the earlier established price point).

Quote from: SuperBitMan on Today at 11:03:23 AM

Those that has reached overaccumulation stage can always wait till the price double before they sell so they won't finish up there Bitcoin investment, that means even in your overaccumulation stage you still have to be patient in selling in other to maintain and keep your investment going, so you can decide to sell 3%, 5%, 8% or 10% when ever the price of your Bitcoin doubles the choice is all yours.

I agree that guys can establish such formulas based on their own circumstances and their perceptions of what they believe to be reasonable... I know that historically, sometimes when I was trying to figure out these matters, there was some difficulties imagining BTC prices going to some of the higher price points... yet there can be some satisfaction in regards to already having plans in place, since it can some times be difficult to decide if the plans had not already been established at an earlier time.

Quote from: SuperBitMan on Today at 11:03:23 AM

It is true that as an investor you have the full right to sell your Bitcoin anyhow and in which way you wish to but if you want to keep your investment going that strategy will be of great help, is very bad to build an investment to a great height and still end up running it dry at once, that is not how an investment should be done.

You are correct that sometimes people do not adequately think through their plans and then they may end up having regrets if they ended up selling too much too soon.. or stopping their BTC accumulation before they had reached a high enough quantity.

Many of us who were around the bitcoin space in 2022 and 2023 likely recall how difficult it was for some guys to be deciding if they should buy bitcoin or if they should wait to see if the BTC price might drop some more, and surely the guys who focused on aggressively and ongoingly buying bitcoin during that time, they ended up in a much better position today by focusing on accumulating bitcoin. Many of them might have not been able to buy more bitcoin, so they ended up doing as best as they could in terms of their BTC accumulation based on their circumstances and their perception of their circumstances, and so now they likely realize that whatever bitcoin that they were able to accumulate for prices that were between $416k and $45k per coin were likely purchased at prices that are never ever ever going to be experienced again.. Sure it is possible that bitcoin prices could go back down to those levels, yet it is also quite doubtful, so they may well be grateful for whatever BTC they were able to accumulate at those levels.. .and at the same time, they might already have tentative plans that they are not selling any of their coins.. and maybe they might start to sell at some price like $200k or even higher, .. or maybe they have to really assess their whole bitcoin holdings since maybe even if they might have had a whole cycle in bitcoin and accumulating bitcoin, they may well also realize that they are going to likely have at least a whole another cycle accumulating bitcoin before they migth start to get to a status of enough or mor than enough so that they might be able to start to consider possibly selling some bitcoin.

Let's say that the guy has an income around $30k per year and he has been accumulating bitcoin at $100 per week for the past 4 years, and he invested right around $21k and he accumulated close to 0.6 BTC.. and he is quite grateful for the quantity of BTC that he has accumulated so far, and even with another 4 years, he is not sure if he might be able to reach a whole BTC unless maybe he is able to increase his discretionary income and his investment amount, yet he still might well be grateful for the BTC that he has accumulated so far up until now.

Quote from: SuperBitMan on Today at 11:03:23 AM

And yes assessing overaccumulation based on the 200-WMA is very good, by above statement was the message I was trying to pass and not how to access one overaccumulation stage.
I think there's a thread you created and you gave good explanation of this matter.

So yes it is good to try to brainstorm about some of these ideas, and at the same time, going through the experiences of building up bitcoin can help to make the experiences seem more concrete in regards to ways to try to manage BTC holdings once they start to get to a higher level. I only have a couple of threads that I have created related to investing in BTC and sustainable withdrawal... and yeah of course, the sustainable withdrawal thread presumes reaching over accumulation status, and engaging those measures of the BTC portfolio value with the 200-WMA rather than soley relying on BTC spot prices.... and even for you, SuperBitMan it may well be better to stay focused on bitcoin accumulation rather than how to employ sustainable withdrawal since it may well take a while for you to get to that stage, especially if we go by your forum registration date and see that you are only about a year in the forum so far.