Quote from: stompix on June 20, 2025, 12:35:23 PM

A few months ago, I had a lenghty private discussion after a series of my posts arguing how Martingale was stupid and how no matter what variation of it you try, you will end up losing, now with other variation poping up, which would involve only betting on favorites with a fixed term loss and a bit of extra flavor to it (you will see it down the line)

Now, since the football season is over and I wouldn't have the patience for one round per week, no way I'm doing as in this one, or god no my other experiment, I'm playing it with my favorite sport, horse racing.

So the rules of the experiment are pretty easy
- Bet only on under 6/4 or 2.5 favorites for UK and Ireland (sorry USA, no way I'm going to lose nights over this), no bet if two are under 6/4
- Bets are on SP rates, as per skybet rates
- Initial bet is $1, next bet must cover that till 5 consecutive losses
- After 5 consecutive losses, the bet is doubled till your winnings cover the first chain of losses
So you lose 1+2+4+8+16 (total 31), you double the bet to $2 and you must win 16 times, if not, double again!
- Stop loss for the experiment is $1000, or $1000 in profit (this is a private deal Wink

), it needs 6 days of consecutive losses for a wipe-out!

Now, obvious questions before the first day
- Loss or profit? Grin

- How long do you think it will take to reach either?
- And of course, the most important, if this s^&% turns out in profit, would you try it yourself?

I am assuming this is just for fun, but the reason why martingale doesn't work can be proven by mathematics.

You can't really draw any conclusions about statistics by gambling on few games, because statistics require a ton of data and results contain margin or error. And only thing winning with martingale in a long run would prove, is that you might be falling into that margin of error by having abnormal winning spree. Statistically that would be however near impossible further you go.