I remember a bit of time that you were doing a kind of DCA with your paypel membership when they first started to allow purchases of bitcoin through their app.

Another thing that I was thinking is that anyone might want to try to reach a target accumulation of BTC.. then maybe they could do daily purchases of BTC..

if they might be able to figure out how much money that they might be able to spare every day, to figure out their budget.

So, for example, if a guy were to want to try to accumulate a whole bitcoin (or as well as he can within a year) and maybe he estimates that he might be able to buy every day and maybe he predicts that the average BTC price for the next year will be around $135k for the whole year, so then maybe he would have to buy $370 worth of bitcoin every single day.. and then see where he is at during the year... but then if he thinks that maybe his cashflow is not good enough  to shoot for $370 per day, and maybe the best that he could do would be $40 per day.. and then that might get him slightly more than 0.1 BTC after a whole year of buying $40 per day.

He can ONLY do what he can do, and even live with the consequences, since last year if he had bought $40 per day worth of bitcoin, he would have had invested right around $14.64k, and he would have had gotten twice as much BTC.. right around 0.2 BTC for the past year at $40 per day.

Some of us remember buying 0.2 BTC for right around $50 in 2015.,. so it is kind of funny that right now in the past year it would have had taken right around $40 every day in order to accumulate the same 0.2 BTC.. and in the future, perhaps the next year, $40 per day is likely ONLY going to get you right around 0.1 BTC.


Have you gotten enough BTC Wakate so that you are ready for UP?  Of course, you have been a member of the forum for 4 years, so it could be possible that you got enough BTC during that time.. perhaps? perhaps?  In recent times, i had been getting the sense that it is becoming more and more difficult to get enough BTC within ONLY one cycle.. even though historically, it likely had ended up easier to accomplish (in retrospect), yet I will also admit that my standards for evaluating enough has also changed through the years.

In any event, you must admit that it feels pretty good to make it through a whole cycle..... so there is some accomplishment in that, even if you might still be accumulating bitcoin.. perhaps?

I am going to proclaim that there could have had been some guys who might have had been able to come to bitcoin in mid 2021 and start accumulating bitcoin and then perhaps step up the level of aggressiveness through 2023. and then in those kinds of circumstances it is possible that such guys could have had gotten enough bitcoin in terms of their financial circumstances and goals.

Just for shits and giggles, let me outline a scenario of a hypothetical guy (using western standards) who I might imagine might have had been able to accumulate enough BTC during that time starting in June 2021, and perhaps his goal was to try to achieve a passive income from his bitcoin of at least $80k per year... . yet my example ends up needing a bit of front loading for it to work, especially if attempting to achieve "enough" within 4 years.

So I will proclaim that in late 2020, this hypothetical guy was in his mid to late 40s, and maybe he was making around $100k per year and perhaps investing for around the prior 15 years (since 2006-ish), so by the time we got to late 2020, he had been fairly successful within his parameters since he had built up an investment portfolio of around $600k with maybe half of his investment portfolio within various employer 401k/retirement fund assets and then perhaps the other half $300k in other assets such as business and real estate that may not be very liquid... but still contributing to his financial resources.

So maybe we put the guy into a bit of a mindset that in late 2020 and maybe even into early 2021, the guy started to get worried about what he had seen happening in 2020 and it was starting to sink in for him  that there was a lot of precariousness in the whole debt-based fiat system, which got him looking into a variety of investments including gravitating into bitcoin.. which got him to consider whether he should allocate and/or build in bitcoin... or at least include it as one of his investment allocations.  He might have even started to gravitate towards some potentially aggressive bitcoin investing ideas and he figured that from a combination of his various investments and his income, he might be able to put together around $150k to $250k to invest in bitcoin in the coming years, but he was not exactly sure how he could garner all of that from his income and from taking out of some of his investments, so he was thinking that from his various resources he could figure out a way to target investing into bitcoin around $32k for the next 6 months, and he might be able to continue to have that investment pace going and to continue to investigate into bitcoin at the same time and consider if he might be able to add more to the investment at various points in time.. but he would see how it goes.. while he is investing fairly aggressively and doing some reallocating and just giving some priority to bitcoin during this time.. .so then maybe the DCA portion of his investment ends up something like this:

Date   $ invested   BTC Accum   $ Run total   BTC run total   200-WMA value                 BTC spot value              200WMA             Spot              Difference
12/1/21   $32,400    0.7324               $32,400    0.7324                   $13,060.16                    $41,754.86                       $17,832             $57,011          3.197117541
3/15/22   $20,000    0.504159314        $52,400    1.236559314           $25,223.34                    $49,054.31                       $20,398             $39,670          1.94479851
6/1/22   $32,400    0.79681                 $84,800    2.033369314           $44,980.16                    $64,795.35                       $22,121             $31,866          1.440531622
12/1/22   $32,400    1.5                        $117,200    3.533369314           $85,323.80                    $60,728.02                       $24,148             $17,187          0.711735962
12/12/22   $20,000    1.16952225        $137,200    4.702891565           $114,063.93                    $80,424.15                       $24,254             $17,101          0.705079575
6/1/23   $32,400    1.43                       $169,600    6.132891565           $161,558.76                    $167,090.63                       $26,343             $27,245          1.034240595
6/17/23   $20,000    0.759676378         $189,600    6.892567942           $182,777.12                    $181,460.64                       $26,518             $26,327          0.992797345
12/1/23   $32,400    1.1                      $222,000    7.992567942           $232,407.89                    $301,415.72                       $29,078             $37,712          1.296925511
2/9/24   $20,000    0.44113106          $242,000    8.433699002           $259,892.87                    $382,367.05                       $30,816             $45,338          1.471248702
6/1/24   $32,400    0.61062                  $274,400    9.044319002           $318,613.27                    $610,265.42                       $35,228             $67,475          1.915379812
12/1/24   $32,400    0.49197                 $306,800    9.536289002           $396,738.23                    $920,375.86                       $41,603             $96,513          2.319856741
6/1/25   $32,400    0.38                       $339,200    9.916289002           $475,595.14                    $1,038,116.46                       $47,961             $104,688          2.182773503


Note for all of the numbers in the above table, I get them from plugging the dates and proposed purchase quantities into these two websites:  
1) https://dcacryptocalculator.com/bitcoin/?start_date=2024-10-01&finish_date=2025-04-01&regular_investment=1200&currency_code=USD&investment_interval=weekly&exchange_fee=2
2) https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy

So of course, 2021 had two BTC price peaks, but this hypothetical guy did not know how the BTC price was going to play out at around that time, and perhaps he was thinking that the BTC price could go to $100k or further in 2021 and 2022, so he had started investing into bitcoin in about May 2021 with a 6-month authorization of $32k ($1,200 per week), and at various points along the way, I have this particular guy injecting an additional $20k in March 2022, December 2022, June 2023 and March 2024.  I think that the whole budget is totally reasonable based on the guy's income, the guy's already existing investments and also based on reasonable expectations to inject more value into bitcoin within a budget that would be possible for a guy with such an income.

Even with the level of aggressiveness that this hypothetical guy had chosen to employ, we can see from the chart that the guy had just accumulated just shy of 10 BTC, and it is not quite enough for his goal to be able to start to passively withdraw sustainably at a rate of $100k per year, even though I would argue that based on the 200-WMA valuation, such accumulated amount of BTC would be capable of sustainably withdrawing at a rate of $47.6k per year, and likely within a couple more years the quantity of BTC already accumulated would likely be able to start to sustainably support an income of $100k per year - even without any more investment into the fund and just by allowing the fund to sit and to continue to compound in value, especially measuring from the 200-WMA.


I suppose it could be possible to be successful in terms of selling some BTC in 2025 and then buying back in 2026, especially for any of us who may well have options and also we might not even be selling so much BTC as to take ourselves out of overaccumulation status.

Part of my problem is if guys actually expect any guarantee that they will be able to buy back cheaper.. so in regards to selling, there could be some situations in which buying back cheaper is not achievable, so in that regards there is some needs not to sell too much.

Regarding the not selling any more after 2028 that seems like quite the fiat way of managing holdings and even perceiving that it is prudent to take out value in fiat rather than merely just planning to regularly take out value from BTC while keeping most of the value in BTC rather than keeping it in fiat.  From my perspective, there seems to be an already planned scaredness (scared-i-cat-i-ness) to keep most of the value in BTC...

Even though I believe that I am perceiving BTC management differently, I can concede that it is not unreasonable to take large chunks of fiat value out of BTC at various points in time...and even spreading out such anticipated withdrawals to be once every 4 years or something like that.. but from my perspective, proclaiming never again needing to withdraw from BTC (such as after 2028) seems a strange way of conceptualizing future BTC management.