I remember a couple of years ago for a bit of time that you were doingposting a kind of DCA with- regarding your paypelusing your PayPal membership as a means to show the matter when theyPaypal first started to allow purchases of bitcoin through their appplatform.

Another thing that I was thinking is that anyone might want to try to reach a target accumulation of BTC.. then maybe they could do daily purchases of BTC..

if they might be able to figure out how much money that they might be able to spare every day, for example, to figure out their budget and to aim for a certain BTC accumulation target.

So, for example, if a guy were to want to try to accumulate a whole bitcoin (or as well as he can) within a year) and, maybe he estimates that he might be able to buy bitcoin every day and maybe he predicts that the average BTC price for the next year will be around $135k for the whole year, so then maybe he would have to buy $370 worth of bitcoin every single day.. and then see where he is at during the year... but then if he thinks that maybe his cashflow is not good enough  to shoot for $370 per day, and maybe the best that he could do would be $40 per day.. and then that might get him slightly more than 0.1 BTC after a whole year of buying $40 perof bitcoin each day.

He can ONLY do what he can do, and even live with the consequences, since last year if he had boughtbeen buying $40 per day worth of bitcoin, he would have had invested right around $14.64k, and he would have had gotten twice as much BTC.. right around 0.2 BTC for the past year atwith a BTC accumulation rate of $40 per day.

Some of us remember buying 0.2 BTC for right around $50 in 2015.,. so it is kind of funny (ironic or even a state of good fortune, aka "lucky") that right now in the past year it would have had taken right around $40 every day in order to accumulate the same 0.2 BTC that we had been able to accumulate for a one time purchase of $50 worth of BTC in 2015.. and in the future, perhaps the next year, $40 per day is likely ONLY going to get you right around 0.1 BTC and likely ongoingly decreasing amount of BTC (which of course is based on the BTC price going up.. ongongly).


Have you gotten enough BTC Wakate so that you are ready for UP?  Of course, you have been a member of the forum for 4 years, so it could be possible that you got enough BTC during that time.. perhaps? perhaps?  In recent timesPerhaps in the past few years, iI had been getting the sense that it is becoming more and more difficult to get enough BTC withinby ONLY accumulating it within one cycle.. absent some fairly aggressive BTC accumulation and/or front-loading of the BTC stash .. even though historically, it likely had ended up easier to accomplish getting enough (in retrospect), yet I will also admit that even in the past (as late as my standardsentry into bitcoin in late 2013), there still was quite a bit better results for evaluating enough has also changed through the yearsguys who were aggressive in their BTC accumulation and who attempted to engage in a bit of frontloading of their investing into bitcoin.

In any event, you must admit that it feels pretty good to make it through a whole cycle..... so thereAnother thing is some accomplishment in that over the years, my standards for evaluating "what is enough" has also changed, and even if youmy own self-assessment of having enough (back in the day when I had come to such conclusion of my own "having enough" might still be accumulating bitcoinwell would have not met my own standards from today.. perhaps? and something about my own mindset was different based on the whole environment in regards what is bitcoin (and its role) has evolved with the context of changes (more financialization) of entrants.

I am going to proclaimIn any event, whether you got "enough" cornz or not, you must admit that it feels pretty damned good to make it through a whole cycle..... so there could have had beenis some guys whoaccomplishment in making it through a whole cycle, even if you might have had been able to come to bitcoinstill be at a stage in mid 2021 and startwhich you are still accumulating bitcoin and then perhaps step up the level of aggressiveness through 2023. and then in those kinds of circumstances it is possible that such guys could have had gotten enough bitcoin in terms of their financial circumstances and goals. perhaps? perhaps?

Just for shits and gigglesEven sitting here right now, let me outline a scenario of a hypothetical guy (using western standards) who I am going to proclaim that there could have had been some guys who might imagine might have had been able to accumulate enough BTC during that time startingcome to bitcoin in June mid-2021-ish and started accumulating bitcoin around that time, and then perhaps his goal wasstepped up their levels of BTC accumulation to try to achieve a passive income from his bitcoinsomewhat aggressive level and then in those kinds of at least $80k per year... . yet my example ends up needing a bit of front loading forcircumstances it to work, especially if attempting to achieve "is possible that such guys could have had gotten enough" within 4 years bitcoin in terms of their financial circumstances and their goals.

So I will proclaim that in late 2020Just for shits and giggles, thislet me outline a scenario of a hypothetical guy was in his mid(using western standards) who I might imagine might have had been able to late 40saccumulate enough BTC during that time starting in June 2021, and maybe heperhaps his goal was making aroundto try to achieve a passive income from his bitcoin of at least $100k80k per year and perhaps investing for around... . At the prior 15 years (since 2006-ish), so by thesame time we got to late 2020, he had been fairly successful within his parameters since he had built up an investment portfolio of around $600k with maybe half of his investment portfolio within various employer 401k/retirement fund assets and then perhaps the other half $300k in other assets suchI am considering that vanilla DCA might not work as businesswell, and real estatemy example ends up needing a bit of front loading for it to work towards getting close to getting "enough" cornz, especially if attempting to achieve that may not be very liquid"enough" within 4-ish years... but still contributing to his financial resources.

So maybe we put the guy into, getting back to my attempt to construct a bit of a mindsethypothetical guy, I will proclaim that in late 2020 and maybe even into early 2021, thethis hypothetical guy started to get worried about what he had seen happening in 2020 and it was starting to sink in for him  that there was a lot of precariousness in the whole debt-based fiat system, which got him looking into a variety of investments including gravitating into bitcoin.. which got him to consider whether he should allocate and/or build in bitcoin... or at least include it as one of his investment allocations.  He might have even startedmid to gravitate towards some potentially aggressive bitcoin investing ideaslate 40s, and maybe he figured that from a combination of his various investments and his income, he might be able to put togetherwas making around $150k to $250k to invest in bitcoin in100k per year and perhaps investing for around the comingprior 15 years (since 2005/2006-ish), butso by the time we got to late 2020, he was not exactly sure how he could garner allhad been fairly successful within the parameters of that from his income and from taking out of some of his investments, so he was thinking that from his various resourcesparticulars since he could figure out a way to target investing into bitcoinhad built up an investment portfolio of around $32k for the next 6 months, and he might be able to continue to have that600k with maybe half of his investment pace goingportfolio within various employer 401k/retirement funds and to continue to investigate into bitcoin atthen perhaps the same timeother half of $300k in other assets such as business and consider if he might/or real estate that may not be able to add more to the investment at various points in timevery liquid... but still contributing to his financial resources since perhaps he would see how it goes.. while he is investing fairly aggressively and doing some reallocating and just giving some priorityhad been able to bitcoin during this time.. .so then maybe the DCA portionbuild a decent amount of his investment ends up something like this:equity within such property/business investments/assets.

Date   $ invested   BTC Accum   $ Run total   BTC run total   200-WMA value                 BTC spot value              200WMA             Spot              DifferenceSo maybe with what was happening in 2020 with the covid bullshit, we may well be able to put the hypothetical guy into a bit of a mindset that in late 2020 and maybe even into early 2021, he started to get worried about the solidness of the investments that he already built and the precariousness of what he had seen happening in 2020 and some dire aspects were starting to sink in for him to motivate him to try to figure out how to potentially try to buttress his own situation and his ongoing worries about the whole debt-based fiat system, which got him looking into a variety of investments that included gravitating some of his thinking and looking further into bitcoin.. which by early to mid 2021 (to go along with the timeline of your forum registration Wakate), got my hypothetical guy to consider that it might be a good idea that he should allocate and/or build some bitcoin angle to his holdings. .and sure including ongoing research into it too.. while he started to invest into it....  
12/1/21   $32,400    0.7324               $32,400    0.7324                   $13,060.16                    $41,754.86                       $17,832             $57,011          3.197117541
3/Accordingly, hypothetical guy might have even started to gravitate towards some potentially aggressive bitcoin investing ideas and he figured that from a combination of his various already existing investments and his anticipated continued income, he might be able to put together more than $100k to invest in bitcoin in the coming years, yet he has to start with some kind of a budget that he considers to be reasonably within his capability to start building a bitcoin position, maybe even wanting to get his bitcoin to be more than $100k and perhaps trying to get it to 15/22   % to 25% of his overall investment portfolio (which was still around $20600k),000    0.504159314        but he was not exactly sure how he could garner all of that from his income and from taking out of some of his investments, so he was thinking that from his various resources he could figure out a way to target investing into bitcoin around $5232k (right around $1,400    200 per weeK) for the next 6 months (from June 1-ish to December 1-ish 2021), and he might be able to continue to have that investment pace going and continuing into the future to invest and research further into bitcoin at the same time that he was investing and consider if he might be able to add more to the investment at various points in time along the way.236559314           . but he would see how it goes...and monitor it while he goes.. . while he is investing fairly aggressively and doing some reallocating and just giving some priority to bitcoin during this time.. .so then maybe the DCA portion of his investment ends up something like $251,223200 per week and like this.34                   . .. and even ending up having some extra investments of $49,05420k at various points along the way (4x $20k in the below example.31                       . which I have bolded with purple the 4 instances of $20,398             20k lump sum amounts.. otherwise the rest were based on the idea of $39,670          1.94479851,200-ish per week):
6/1/22   $32,400    0.79681                 $84,800    2.033369314           $44,980.16                    $64,795.35                       $22,121             $31,866          1.440531622
12/1/22   color: inherit; ">

$32,400   color: inherit;  1.5                        $117,200    3.533369314           $85,323.80                    $60,728.02                       $24,148             $17,187          0.711735962" valign="top">| 12/12/22   $20,000 Date   1.16952225        $137,200    4.702891565           $114,063.93                    $80,424.15                       $24,254             $17,101          0.705079575<br>6/1/23 td>	color: inherit; $32,400    1.43                       $169,600    6.132891565           $161,558.76                    $167,090.63                       $26,343             $27,245          1.034240595" valign="top">| 6/17/23   $20,000 invested   0.759676378         $189,600    6.892567942           $182,777.12                    $181,460.64                       $26,518             $26,327          0.992797345<br>12/1/23 td>	color: inherit; $32,400    1.1                      $222,000    7.992567942           $232,407.89                    $301,415.72                       $29,078             $37,712          1.296925511" valign="top">| 2/9/24   $20,000 BTC Accum   0.44113106          $242,000    8.433699002           $259,892.87                    $382,367.05                       $30,816             $45,338          1.471248702	| $ Run total	| BTC run total	| 200-WMA value	| BTC spot value	| 200WMA	| Spot	| Difference
12/1/21	$32,400	0.7324	$32,400	0.7324	$13,060.16	$41,754.86	$17,832	$57,011	3.197117541
3/15/22	$20,000	0.504159314	$52,400	1.236559314	$25,223.34	$49,054.31	$20,398	$39,670	1.94479851
6/1/22	$32,400	0.79681	$84,800	2.033369314	$44,980.16	$64,795.35	$22,121	$31,866	1.440531622
12/1/22	$32,400	1.5	$117,200	3.533369314	$85,323.80	$60,728.02	$24,148	$17,187	0.711735962
12/12/22	$20,000	1.16952225	$137,200	4.702891565	$114,063.93	$80,424.15	$24,254	$17,101	0.705079575
6/1/23	$32,400	1.43	$169,600	6.132891565	$161,558.76	$167,090.63	$26,343	$27,245	1.034240595
6/17/23	$20,000	0.759676378	$189,600	6.892567942	$182,777.12	$181,460.64	$26,518	$26,327	0.992797345
12/1/23	$32,400	1.1	$222,000	7.992567942	$232,407.89	$301,415.72	$29,078	$37,712	1.296925511
2/9/24	$20,000	0.44113106	$242,000	8.433699002	$259,892.87	$382,367.05	$30,816	$45,338	1.471248702
6/1/24	$32,400	0.61062	$274,400	9.044319002	$318,613.27	$610,265.42	$35,228	$67,475	1.915379812
12/1/24	$32,400	0.49197	$306,800	9.536289002	$396,738.23	$920,375.86	$41,603	$96,513	2.319856741
6/1/25	$32,400	0.38	$339,200	9.916289002	$475,595.14	$1,038,116.46	$47,961	$104,688	2.182773503

6/1/24   $32,400    0.61062                  $274,400    9.044319002           $318,613.27                    $610,265.42                       $35,228             $67,475          1.915379812
12/1/24   $32,400    0.49197                 $306,800    9.536289002           $396,738.23                    $920,375.86                       $41,603             $96,513          2.319856741
6/1/25   $32,400    0.38                       $339,200    9.916289002           $475,595.14                    $1,038,116.46                       $47,961             $104,688          2.182773503


Note for all of the numbers in the above table, I get them from plugging the dates and proposed purchase quantities into these two websites:  
1) https://dcacryptocalculator.com/bitcoin/?start_date=2024-10-01&finish_date=2025-04-01&regular_investment=1200&currency_code=USD&investment_interval=weekly&exchange_fee=2
2) https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy

So ofOf course, 2021 had two BTC price peaks (in April and November), but this hypothetical guy did not know how the BTC price was going to play out at around that time, and perhaps based on his then superficial looking into the matter (and past charts) he was tentatively thinking that the BTC priceprices could go to $100k or further in 2021 and 2022.. but yeah of course, so he could also see that previous times had started investing into bitcoin in about May 2021 with a 6-month authorization of $32k ($1involved 4 year cycles,200 per week), and at various points along so he could not rule out the wayongoing existence of 4-year cycles, I have this particular guy injecting an additional $20k in March 2022, December 2022, June 2023 and March 2024.  I thinkso he considered that he was somewhat trying to get used to the whole budget is totally reasonable based on the guy's incomematter of bitcoin investing, the guy's already existing investments andbut also based on reasonable expectationstrying to inject more value into bitcoinpace himself in accordance with what was manageable within ahis budget that would be possible for a guy with such an income..

So perhaps the hypothetical guy started investing into bitcoin about June 1, 2021 with a 6-month authorization of $32k ($1,200 per week), and at various points along the way, I have this particular guy injecting an additional $20k in March 2022, December 2022, June 2023 and March 2024.  I think that the whole budget is totally reasonable based on the guy's income, the guy's already existing investments (quasi-liquid investment portfolio) and also based on reasonable expectations that he may well inject more value into bitcoin within a budget that would be possible for a guy with such circumstances.. aiming to get his investment into bitcoin to be somewhere in the ballpark of 15% to 25% of his investment portfolio.. with a sort of tentative target of $100k to perhaps get there over a year and a half or something like that..  . .and surely there could be some attempts for him to continue to invest into his other investments, but that would have had caused him to dilute his entrance into bitcoin, so from the start, he recognized that he was going to mostly concentrate and add to his bitcoin so that he could at least get the amount that he put into bitcoin to be within his tentative 15% to 25% target range in terms of what he considered to be his overall quasi-liquid investment portfolio.

Even with the level of aggressiveness that this hypothetical guy had chosen to employ, we can see from the chart that the guy had just accumulated just shy of 10 BTC, through the whole period and ithe had ended up investing close to $340 into bitcoin.. So surely the guy was investing more aggressively than his initial plan of investing 18-ish months.

And, even assessing where the guy is right now, we might say that 10-ish bitcoin is not quite enough for his goal to be able to start to passively withdraw sustainably at a rate of $100k80k per year, even though I would argue that based on the 200-WMA valuation, such accumulated amount of BTC would currently be capable of sustainably withdrawing at a rate of $47.6k per year, and likely within about a couple more years (or maybe slightly less) the quantity of BTC already accumulated would likely be able to start to sustainably support an income of $100k80k per year - even without any more investment into the fund and just by allowing the fund to sit and to continue to compound in value, especially measuring what is sustainable withdrawal from the 200-WMA... yet even over the years (of one whole cycle investing into bitcoin), he might start to conclude that he might need to have a bit of a cushion or maybe slightly greater than $80k per year in order to start his sustainable withdrawal.. and so maybe the guy is now in his late 40s, and he doesn't mind working for a few more years while he locks up his "enough" or more than enough status, and surely I can see that this guy might have uncertainty about his "enough" status, but he still might have enough comfort that he might feel that he does not need to continue to add to his BTC based on his own understanding (and having had learned) that the quantity of bitcoin needed to sustain either an $80k withdrawal rate or even a $100k withdrawal rate is ongoingly coming down and would soon reach a level of below 10 BTC for that particular amount of targeted income -even potentially anticipating that there could be years in which the ongoing debasement of the dollar could be around 7% for each of the years, sop whenever he decides to start withdrawing, he is anticipating that he may well would want to increase the dollar amount of his withdrawal somewhere in the territory of 7% per year..

I remember a bit of time that you were doing a kind of DCA with your paypel membership when they first started to allow purchases of bitcoin through their app.

Another thing that I was thinking is that anyone might want to try to reach a target accumulation of BTC.. then maybe they could do daily purchases of BTC..

if they might be able to figure out how much money that they might be able to spare every day, to figure out their budget.

So, for example, if a guy were to want to try to accumulate a whole bitcoin (or as well as he can within a year) and maybe he estimates that he might be able to buy every day and maybe he predicts that the average BTC price for the next year will be around $135k for the whole year, so then maybe he would have to buy $370 worth of bitcoin every single day.. and then see where he is at during the year... but then if he thinks that maybe his cashflow is not good enough  to shoot for $370 per day, and maybe the best that he could do would be $40 per day.. and then that might get him slightly more than 0.1 BTC after a whole year of buying $40 per day.

He can ONLY do what he can do, and even live with the consequences, since last year if he had bought $40 per day worth of bitcoin, he would have had invested right around $14.64k, and he would have had gotten twice as much BTC.. right around 0.2 BTC for the past year at $40 per day.

Some of us remember buying 0.2 BTC for right around $50 in 2015.,. so it is kind of funny that right now in the past year it would have had taken right around $40 every day in order to accumulate the same 0.2 BTC.. and in the future, perhaps the next year, $40 per day is likely ONLY going to get you right around 0.1 BTC.


Have you gotten enough BTC Wakate so that you are ready for UP?  Of course, you have been a member of the forum for 4 years, so it could be possible that you got enough BTC during that time.. perhaps? perhaps?  In recent times, i had been getting the sense that it is becoming more and more difficult to get enough BTC within ONLY one cycle.. even though historically, it likely had ended up easier to accomplish (in retrospect), yet I will also admit that my standards for evaluating enough has also changed through the years.

In any event, you must admit that it feels pretty good to make it through a whole cycle..... so there is some accomplishment in that, even if you might still be accumulating bitcoin.. perhaps?

I am going to proclaim that there could have had been some guys who might have had been able to come to bitcoin in mid 2021 and start accumulating bitcoin and then perhaps step up the level of aggressiveness through 2023. and then in those kinds of circumstances it is possible that such guys could have had gotten enough bitcoin in terms of their financial circumstances and goals.

Just for shits and giggles, let me outline a scenario of a hypothetical guy (using western standards) who I might imagine might have had been able to accumulate enough BTC during that time starting in June 2021, and perhaps his goal was to try to achieve a passive income from his bitcoin of at least $80k per year... . yet my example ends up needing a bit of front loading for it to work, especially if attempting to achieve "enough" within 4 years.

So I will proclaim that in late 2020, this hypothetical guy was in his mid to late 40s, and maybe he was making around $100k per year and perhaps investing for around the prior 15 years (since 2006-ish), so by the time we got to late 2020, he had been fairly successful within his parameters since he had built up an investment portfolio of around $600k with maybe half of his investment portfolio within various employer 401k/retirement fund assets and then perhaps the other half $300k in other assets such as business and real estate that may not be very liquid... but still contributing to his financial resources.

So maybe we put the guy into a bit of a mindset that in late 2020 and maybe even into early 2021, the guy started to get worried about what he had seen happening in 2020 and it was starting to sink in for him  that there was a lot of precariousness in the whole debt-based fiat system, which got him looking into a variety of investments including gravitating into bitcoin.. which got him to consider whether he should allocate and/or build in bitcoin... or at least include it as one of his investment allocations.  He might have even started to gravitate towards some potentially aggressive bitcoin investing ideas and he figured that from a combination of his various investments and his income, he might be able to put together around $150k to $250k to invest in bitcoin in the coming years, but he was not exactly sure how he could garner all of that from his income and from taking out of some of his investments, so he was thinking that from his various resources he could figure out a way to target investing into bitcoin around $32k for the next 6 months, and he might be able to continue to have that investment pace going and to continue to investigate into bitcoin at the same time and consider if he might be able to add more to the investment at various points in time.. but he would see how it goes.. while he is investing fairly aggressively and doing some reallocating and just giving some priority to bitcoin during this time.. .so then maybe the DCA portion of his investment ends up something like this:

Date   $ invested   BTC Accum   $ Run total   BTC run total   200-WMA value                 BTC spot value              200WMA             Spot              Difference
12/1/21   $32,400    0.7324               $32,400    0.7324                   $13,060.16                    $41,754.86                       $17,832             $57,011          3.197117541
3/15/22   $20,000    0.504159314        $52,400    1.236559314           $25,223.34                    $49,054.31                       $20,398             $39,670          1.94479851
6/1/22   $32,400    0.79681                 $84,800    2.033369314           $44,980.16                    $64,795.35                       $22,121             $31,866          1.440531622
12/1/22   $32,400    1.5                        $117,200    3.533369314           $85,323.80                    $60,728.02                       $24,148             $17,187          0.711735962
12/12/22   $20,000    1.16952225        $137,200    4.702891565           $114,063.93                    $80,424.15                       $24,254             $17,101          0.705079575
6/1/23   $32,400    1.43                       $169,600    6.132891565           $161,558.76                    $167,090.63                       $26,343             $27,245          1.034240595
6/17/23   $20,000    0.759676378         $189,600    6.892567942           $182,777.12                    $181,460.64                       $26,518             $26,327          0.992797345
12/1/23   $32,400    1.1                      $222,000    7.992567942           $232,407.89                    $301,415.72                       $29,078             $37,712          1.296925511
2/9/24   $20,000    0.44113106          $242,000    8.433699002           $259,892.87                    $382,367.05                       $30,816             $45,338          1.471248702
6/1/24   $32,400    0.61062                  $274,400    9.044319002           $318,613.27                    $610,265.42                       $35,228             $67,475          1.915379812
12/1/24   $32,400    0.49197                 $306,800    9.536289002           $396,738.23                    $920,375.86                       $41,603             $96,513          2.319856741
6/1/25   $32,400    0.38                       $339,200    9.916289002           $475,595.14                    $1,038,116.46                       $47,961             $104,688          2.182773503


Note for all of the numbers in the above table, I get them from plugging the dates and proposed purchase quantities into these two websites:  
1) https://dcacryptocalculator.com/bitcoin/?start_date=2024-10-01&finish_date=2025-04-01&regular_investment=1200&currency_code=USD&investment_interval=weekly&exchange_fee=2
2) https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy

So of course, 2021 had two BTC price peaks, but this hypothetical guy did not know how the BTC price was going to play out at around that time, and perhaps he was thinking that the BTC price could go to $100k or further in 2021 and 2022, so he had started investing into bitcoin in about May 2021 with a 6-month authorization of $32k ($1,200 per week), and at various points along the way, I have this particular guy injecting an additional $20k in March 2022, December 2022, June 2023 and March 2024.  I think that the whole budget is totally reasonable based on the guy's income, the guy's already existing investments and also based on reasonable expectations to inject more value into bitcoin within a budget that would be possible for a guy with such an income.

Even with the level of aggressiveness that this hypothetical guy had chosen to employ, we can see from the chart that the guy had just accumulated just shy of 10 BTC, and it is not quite enough for his goal to be able to start to passively withdraw sustainably at a rate of $100k per year, even though I would argue that based on the 200-WMA valuation, such accumulated amount of BTC would be capable of sustainably withdrawing at a rate of $47.6k per year, and likely within a couple more years the quantity of BTC already accumulated would likely be able to start to sustainably support an income of $100k per year - even without any more investment into the fund and just by allowing the fund to sit and to continue to compound in value, especially measuring from the 200-WMA.

Quote from: Paashaas on June 27, 2025, 02:46:15 PM

Using Bitstamp for a while now. Their KYC was a pain especially asking where my money originated from. Had to search bankingslips from 2013 and up.

Will ditch them later this year returning where i bought all my coins at Dutch Bitcoin exchange Bitonic using their OTC desk.
Bitonic KYC is pretty much standaard requirements. Will sell a bunch and buying some back in 2026.
After the 2028 halving pump will be the last time selling.

Remaing coins will stay in cold storage for the rest of my life. Suddenly a "boating accident" scenario happend.

I suppose it could be possible to be successful in terms of selling some BTC in 2025 and then buying back in 2026, especially for any of us who may well have options and also we might not even be selling so much BTC as to take ourselves out of overaccumulation status.

Part of my problem is if guys actually expect any guarantee that they will be able to buy back cheaper.. so in regards to selling, there could be some situations in which buying back cheaper is not achievable, so in that regards there is some needs not to sell too much.

Regarding the not selling any more after 2028 that seems like quite the fiat way of managing holdings and even perceiving that it is prudent to take out value in fiat rather than merely just planning to regularly take out value from BTC while keeping most of the value in BTC rather than keeping it in fiat.  From my perspective, there seems to be an already planned scaredness (scared-i-cat-i-ness) to keep most of the value in BTC...

Even though I believe that I am perceiving BTC management differently, I can concede that it is not unreasonable to take large chunks of fiat value out of BTC at various points in time...and even spreading out such anticipated withdrawals to be once every 4 years or something like that.. but from my perspective, proclaiming never again needing to withdraw from BTC (such as after 2028) seems a strange way of conceptualizing future BTC management.

I remember a bit of time that you were doing a kind of DCA with your paypel membership when they first started to allow purchases of bitcoin through their app.

Another thing that I was thinking is that anyone might want to try to reach a target accumulation of BTC.. then maybe they could do daily purchases of BTC..

if they might be able to figure out how much money that they might be able to spare every day, to figure out their budget.

So, for example, if a guy were to want to try to accumulate a whole bitcoin (or as well as he can within a year) and maybe he estimates that he might be able to buy every day and maybe he predicts that the average BTC price for the next year will be around $135k for the whole year, so then maybe he would have to buy $370 worth of bitcoin every single day.. and then see where he is at during the year... but then if he thinks that maybe his cashflow is not good enough  to shoot for $370 per day, and maybe the best that he could do would be $40 per day.. and then that might get him slightly more than 0.1 BTC after a whole year of buying $40 per day.

He can ONLY do what he can do, and even live with the consequences, since last year if he had bought $40 per day worth of bitcoin, he would have had invested right around $14.64k, and he would have had gotten twice as much BTC.. right around 0.2 BTC for the past year at $40 per day.

Some of us remember buying 0.2 BTC for right around $50 in 2015.,. so it is kind of funny that right now in the past year it would have had taken right around $40 every day in order to accumulate the same 0.2 BTC.. and in the future, perhaps the next year, $40 per day is likely ONLY going to get you right around 0.1 BTC.


Have you gotten enough BTC Wakate so that you are ready for UP?  Of course, you have been a member of the forum for 4 years, so it could be possible that you got enough BTC during that time.. perhaps? perhaps?  In recent times, i had been getting the sense that it is becoming more and more difficult to get enough BTC within ONLY one cycle.. even though historically, it likely had ended up easier to accomplish (in retrospect), yet I will also admit that my standards for evaluating enough has also changed through the years.

In any event, you must admit that it feels pretty good to make it through a whole cycle..... so there is some accomplishment in that, even if you might still be accumulating bitcoin.. perhaps?

I am going to proclaim that there could have had been some guys who might have had been able to come to bitcoin in mid 2021 and start accumulating bitcoin and then perhaps step up the level of aggressiveness through 2023. and then in those kinds of circumstances it is possible that such guys could have had gotten enough bitcoin in terms of their financial circumstances and goals.

Just for shits and giggles, let me outline a scenario of a hypothetical guy (using western standards) who I might imagine might have had been able to accumulate enough BTC during that time starting in June 2021, and perhaps his goal was to try to achieve a passive income from his bitcoin of at least $80k per year... . yet my example ends up needing a bit of front loading for it to work, especially if attempting to achieve "enough" within 4 years.

So I will proclaim that in late 2020, this hypothetical guy was in his mid to late 40s, and maybe he was making around $100k per year and perhaps investing for around the prior 15 years (since 2006-ish), so by the time we got to late 2020, he had been fairly successful within his parameters since he had built up an investment portfolio of around $600k with maybe half of his investment portfolio within various employer 401k/retirement fund assets and then perhaps the other half $300k in other assets such as business and real estate that may not be very liquid... but still contributing to his financial resources.

So maybe we put the guy into a bit of a mindset that in late 2020 and maybe even into early 2021, the guy started to get worried about what he had seen happening in 2020 and it was starting to sink in for him  that there was a lot of precariousness in the whole debt-based fiat system, which got him looking into a variety of investments including gravitating into bitcoin.. which got him to consider whether he should allocate and/or build in bitcoin... or at least include it as one of his investment allocations.  He might have even started to gravitate towards some potentially aggressive bitcoin investing ideas and he figured that from a combination of his various investments and his income, he might be able to put together around $150k to $250k to invest in bitcoin in the coming years, but he was not exactly sure how he could garner all of that from his income and from taking out of some of his investments, so he was thinking that from his various resources he could figure out a way to target investing into bitcoin around $32k for the next 6 months, and he might be able to continue to have that investment pace going and to continue to investigate into bitcoin at the same time and consider if he might be able to add more to the investment at various points in time.. but he would see how it goes.. while he is investing fairly aggressively and doing some reallocating and just giving some priority to bitcoin during this time.. .so then maybe the DCA portion of his investment ends up something like this:

Date   $ invested   BTC Accum   $ Run total   BTC run total   200-WMA value                 BTC spot value              200WMA             Spot              Difference
12/1/21   $32,400    0.7324               $32,400    0.7324                   $13,060.16                    $41,754.86                       $17,832             $57,011          3.197117541
3/15/22   $20,000    0.504159314        $52,400    1.236559314           $25,223.34                    $49,054.31                       $20,398             $39,670          1.94479851
6/1/22   $32,400    0.79681                 $84,800    2.033369314           $44,980.16                    $64,795.35                       $22,121             $31,866          1.440531622
12/1/22   $32,400    1.5                        $117,200    3.533369314           $85,323.80                    $60,728.02                       $24,148             $17,187          0.711735962
12/12/22   $20,000    1.16952225        $137,200    4.702891565           $114,063.93                    $80,424.15                       $24,254             $17,101          0.705079575
6/1/23   $32,400    1.43                       $169,600    6.132891565           $161,558.76                    $167,090.63                       $26,343             $27,245          1.034240595
6/17/23   $20,000    0.759676378         $189,600    6.892567942           $182,777.12                    $181,460.64                       $26,518             $26,327          0.992797345
12/1/23   $32,400    1.1                      $222,000    7.992567942           $232,407.89                    $301,415.72                       $29,078             $37,712          1.296925511
2/9/24   $20,000    0.44113106          $242,000    8.433699002           $259,892.87                    $382,367.05                       $30,816             $45,338          1.471248702
6/1/24   $32,400    0.61062                  $274,400    9.044319002           $318,613.27                    $610,265.42                       $35,228             $67,475          1.915379812
12/1/24   $32,400    0.49197                 $306,800    9.536289002           $396,738.23                    $920,375.86                       $41,603             $96,513          2.319856741
6/1/25   $32,400    0.38                       $339,200    9.916289002           $475,595.14                    $1,038,116.46                       $47,961             $104,688          2.182773503


Note for all of the numbers in the above table, I get them from plugging the dates and proposed purchase quantities into these two websites:  
1) https://dcacryptocalculator.com/bitcoin/?start_date=2024-10-01&finish_date=2025-04-01&regular_investment=1200&currency_code=USD&investment_interval=weekly&exchange_fee=2
2) https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy

So of course, 2021 had two BTC price peaks, but this hypothetical guy did not know how the BTC price was going to play out at around that time, and perhaps he was thinking that the BTC price could go to $100k or further in 2021 and 2022, so he had started investing into bitcoin in about May 2021 with a 6-month authorization of $32k ($1,200 per week), and at various points along the way, I have this particular guy injecting an additional $20k in March 2022, December 2022, June 2023 and March 2024.  I think that the whole budget is totally reasonable based on the guy's income, the guy's already existing investments and also based on reasonable expectations to inject more value into bitcoin within a budget that would be possible for a guy with such an income.

Even with the level of aggressiveness that this hypothetical guy had chosen to employ, we can see from the chart that the guy had just accumulated just shy of 10 BTC, and it is not quite enough for his goal to be able to start to passively withdraw sustainably at a rate of $100k per year, even though I would argue that based on the 200-WMA valuation, such accumulated amount of BTC would be capable of sustainably withdrawing at a rate of $47.6k per year, and likely within a couple more years the quantity of BTC already accumulated would likely be able to start to sustainably support an income of $100k per year - even without any more investment into the fund and just by allowing the fund to sit and to continue to compound in value, especially measuring from the 200-WMA.


I suppose it could be possible to be successful in terms of selling some BTC in 2025 and then buying back in 2026, especially for any of us who may well have options and also we might not even be selling so much BTC as to take ourselves out of overaccumulation status.

Part of my problem is if guys actually expect any guarantee that they will be able to buy back cheaper.. so in regards to selling, there could be some situations in which buying back cheaper is not achievable, so in that regards there is some needs not to sell too much.

Regarding the not selling any more after 2028 that seems like quite the fiat way of managing holdings and even perceiving that it is prudent to take out value in fiat rather than merely just planning to regularly take out value from BTC while keeping most of the value in BTC rather than keeping it in fiat.  From my perspective, there seems to be an already planned scaredness (scared-i-cat-i-ness) to keep most of the value in BTC...

Even though I believe that I am perceiving BTC management differently, I can concede that it is not unreasonable to take large chunks of fiat value out of BTC at various points in time...and even spreading out such anticipated withdrawals to be once every 4 years or something like that.. but from my perspective, proclaiming never again needing to withdraw from BTC (such as after 2028) seems a strange way of conceptualizing future BTC management.