Quote from: Paashaas on July 02, 2025, 08:46:24 AM

Samson Mow must be the biggest bull cunt out there with $1 million BTC in Q4.

Even more ridiculous than that other cunt Plan B $400,000.

I have a hard time criticizing guys for being overly bullish, even though I do understand that some normies can end up being damaged through their overly reliance on such overly bullish claims - yet at the same time, there might be some projection that is not even Mow's exact words since even if he might not continuously use qualifiers, there may be implied qualifiers..

Last cycle, right around the top, I proclaimed that the odds were slightly higher for more UP rather than down, meaning even as of December 16, 2021, which was within weeks of the top, I had pretty much assigned 45% odds for down and 55% odds for UP, and also I had assigned something like 2%-ish odds for $1 million or higher.. which likely means that I would assign greater that 1% odds to $1million or higher for this cycle.. and yeah, I have not honed in on my exact numbers, yet i doubt that they would be even close to as high as Mow's numbers..

Even though I ended up being quite wrong in late 2021, since t$69k ended up being the top, and my numbers seem a bit whimsical after the fact, no one really wanted to take the other side of my numbers, and really I did not see anyone attempting to assign any granularity to their proposed BTC price direction proclamations... even though Phil was sure as fuck we were going above $70k.. and he beat that one to death, even though it might not have actually been bettable, even though he ended up bing wrong with his seemingly high level of proclamations.

I am starting to wonder if Mow considers the odds for $1 million before the end of 2025 to be greater than 50%, since that would make it bettable. and I have not heard about him entering into any bets on the topic.

I am currently thinking less than 10% for greater than $1 million for this cycle, and I sometimes get the sense that I have been overly beaten if I am even pondering 5%-ish odds for greater than $1 million for this cycle and I admit that might be overly bearish.. but 5% is still quite a bit higher than a lot of folks would assign for greater than $1 million bitcoin for this cycle and it is really ONLY a 9x.. so that is not really that grandeur when it comes to bitcoin.... yet, maybe I should say that even if I were to be considering odds of greater than 10% for our touching upon $1 million this cycle, the that still seems like that there is enough room to bet against someone who seems to be suggesting greater than 50/50 odds for $1 million before the end of 2025. . Let's say, if I were feeling really bullish, then I might be going as high as 10% or maybe even 15% for my acceptance that we could hit $1million in this cycle or even by the end of 2025, yet that also seems bettable for me to take the other side of a Mow bet, especially if he might just be going slightly higher than 50/50 odds on his side of the bet. It is funny that ther3e is no outstanding bet given how frequently I hear Mow talking about $1million bitcoin, and he seemed to have have said it several times already for earlier timelines, so he is already used to being wrong.. but perhaps still hoping that sooner or later, he will be correct and he will be able to say "I told you so... .I just didn't know when, exactly," which seems like almost a fair position for him to take.

By the way, we also know that it does not really take that much money to move the bitcoin market, so it is not like we need $18 trillion to come into bitcoin in order for bitcoin to move up in its market cap from $2 trillion (currently) to right around $20 trillion, which is what it would be at right around $1 million per coin.

Quote from: Lucius on July 02, 2025, 10:20:15 AM

Quote from: LoyceV on July 02, 2025, 06:44:56 AM

Quote from: El duderino_ on July 02, 2025, 06:34:25 AM

I know they blocked everything from crypto's before not allowing transfers incoming from exchanges etc
Its the classic first they laugh/ignore you, now they join you situation.

Your link is behind a pay wall Sad

It sounds like they only want to earn from Bitcoin buyers, so I'm curious if they're still not allowing transfers from exchanges. Large corporations taking control of people's private keys and selling them "an account" isn't really the kind of adoption I was hoping for.

Banks have no morals, they do anything to earn more money. Remember the massive fines for facilitating money laundering (not related to crypto)? They only started checking more because they got fined.

Anyone who believes that banks want Bitcoin because of what it represents in its core idea is either crazy or doesn't understand how the system works. Banks were created so that a very narrow group of people could control everyone else and make extra profits - and even today we see that politics and banks are two wings of the same body.
In addition, as you say, they are the biggest money launderers in the world, and on the other hand, I believe that banks are among the biggest sponsors of attacks on Bitcoin, whether it is that BTC mining causes climate change, or that it consumes too much electricity, so we will remain in the dark - and of course only criminals, terrorists and generally those who want to hide something work with BTC.

When they didn't manage to destroy the whole thing or marginalize it enough to slowly disappear in the wasteland of the internet, they decided on another tactic. The goal is obviously to profit from BTC as much as possible, while at the same time moving as many people away from the idea that it is the currency they should use.
Is it realistic to speculate that by the end of this decade maybe even 50% of all BTC will be in the possession of various ETFs, individuals like Saylor and others like him and maybe even central banks? Someone may not see too much of a problem in this, but since BTC spot ETFs were approved in the US, large companies like BlackRock have become very interested in BTC mining companies in which they have already acquired significant stakes.
I'm just curious if all this is purely for profit, or if there's an idea behind it to try to centralize Bitcoin to some extent. It should not be forgotten that BlackRock once announced that in the case of a hard fork, they reserve the right to follow the chain they consider better, not necessarily the one chosen by the majority of the community.

Even though you make a lot of good points Lucius, I consider you to be overly bearish and hopefully you are not overly hedging against bitcoin based on your views that the seem to presume that status quo institutions have as much power as you are making them out to have. I believe that they are going to try many of the things that you suggest, and if they are not able to do such things overtly, they will strive to do them covertly. I just doubt that they are going to have as much success as you seem to be presuming them to have a bit of a cake-walk with bitcoin, when the fact of the matter is that they going to have to learn some much better ways to fuck people over, since I am going to suggest that from time to time, there are going to be enough folks holding their private keys and transacting privately that will help to bring some honesty, even though the BIG player crooks will continue to crook in their various ways.

Quote from: bangjoe on July 02, 2025, 04:34:37 PM

Seeing green plants will make you feel calm and fresh, especially if you see the condition of Bitcoin which is always green. Cheesy

Except when it is not.

Quote from: philipma1957 on Today at 12:16:37 AM

Just sideways some more.
Well sideways with a slight lift works for me.

Now if we can do it longer maybe I will get ready for up.

I am not convinced.

Being ready for UP does not just happen.. being ready for up is a process that involves conviction and historical action that may well take years and years and years to develop the conviction and to act upon such conviction over and over and over.

Even if you are not quite ready for UP, it is still better to be a low coiner rather than a no coiner, so at least you seem to have that low coiner thingie-ma-jiggie going for you. It could be worse. There are like 99% of the world's population who are still no coiners (it could be slightly less than 99%, but I have my doubts), and some of them are even on this forum and come to threads like this one.. so at least you are not one of those no coiner guys.