Quote from: kTimesG on Today at 05:58:53 PM

Quote from: newsecurity1986 on Today at 05:41:45 PM

Keys ain't balls:
Crypto keys are unique and never reused, no "putting back" like your urn nonsense.

Balls are not the keys, they are the hashes. The keys are irrelevant here. They might as well be random data that gets hashed. This doesn't change in any way any probabilities whatsoever.

Quote from: newsecurity1986 on Today at 05:41:45 PM

Real-world:
Prefix search actually saves work by bailing early when collisions happen. Your urn keeps uselessly drawing balls forever.

No, no. The urn does the same bailing just as the prefix search: extractions are skipped once a blue ball comes out. This step is very important, sorry that I forgot to mention it. So, please, once a blue ball comes out, please skip the next few extractions. Then please proceed with the next extraction. I know, it sounds like a no-op, but hey, that's identical to skipping keys.

Quote from: newsecurity1986 on Today at 05:41:45 PM

Physical constraints matter:
The prefix search exploit actual hardware behavior (sequential scanning + early termination) to boost efficiency. Your model just jerks off in theory land.

My bad, I totally forgot how much that matters when doing the probability calculations. It definitely impacts the next ball to come out. IMHO I was thinking it's exactly the other way around: not skipping keys helps because you simply compute the next key, instead of a hard reset. My bad again.

Have fun!

Listen up, tulip breath, your urn model's still smoking legal herbs:

STOP PUTTING HASHES BACK IN THE URN!
SHA-256 ain't some stoned lottery where duplicates magically appear. Each key spits out a unique hash. Your "replacement" fantasy would break Bitcoin's entire security model. Stop hallucinating.

YOU ABORT ON THE WRONG TRIGGER!
Prefix bail on FALSE POSITIVES (collisions), not after finding the real key. Your "skip after blue ball" is like celebrating a wallet crack then quitting, total junkie logic.

HASHING COSTS MORE THAN YOUR RENT!

Advancing keys: cost = 1 joint
Generating hashes: cost = whole coffeeshop inventory
Pretending skipping keys saves work proves you've never touched real hardware.

YOUR OWN MATH CONFIRMED THE 63%!
Stop fighting your own damn probability calculation. The 63% is rock solid because:

Physics of unique keys

Real abortion on collisions

Actual code benchmarks

Your urn's a fantasy bong. Prefix search is working with cryptographic reality. Either run the real simulation (you'll get 63%) or stop clogging the thread with theoretical vomit. The method works, deal with it.