Ok.  From your forum registration date, I can see you have ONLY been here slightly more than a year, but you are saying some pretty dumb things if you are trying to suggest that the BTC price is high or that it is getting high, so then people are not going to buy it.

That is ridiculous, and shows a kind of superficial and narrow perspective in regards to what bitcoin is.

There are always people thinking that the bitcoin price is too high.

They thought the same thing at $1k and the same thing at $10k.

So now you are saying that $100k is some kind of an outrageous price?

Right now, we still have around 1% of the world's population who might own some bitcoin, and surely way less than 0.1% that actually have any kind of a meaningful exposure to bitcoin... so those folks who have no bitcoin or very low quantity of bitcoin are not going to have any choice but to buy bitcoin at higher prices, otherwise they remain low coiners and/or no coiners.

Yeah, it sucks, they should have had bought bitcoin earlier, but it is quite likely that bitcoin is going to get into $1 million, $10 million, $100 million and even higher prices, and if guys do not have any bitcoin, the only way to get exposure is buy buying bitcoin or buying some derivative of bitcoin and someone else buys the bitcoin.

There is surely an incentive to get started with bitcoin earlier rather than later, and even 4-10 years or further down the road, there are going to be folks stuck with the choice of whether to buy bitcoin or not, and anyone who already bought bitcoin and who had been buying bitcoin for the prior 4-10 years or more will likely have a lot of advantages over the person who will be just getting started and/or just coming to realize that maybe they should buy some bitcoin.

Whether you believe what I am saying or not, may well affect your position size and how much bitcoin you sell and/or trade along the way rather than making sure that you accumulate it.  There will be persons who start out whimpily in bitcoin and there will be people who start out more aggressively, and likely anyone who starts out in bitcoin will be better off than those who do not, even though there are no guarantees, and since there are no guarantees, each of us has to figure out our position size and if we are skeptical we will be more whimpy in our bitcoin accumulation.. it is our choice. ..

Whether in the future bitcoin is $1 million, $10 million, $100 million or even some higher price, and if we have some bitcoin we may well feel good about the way our bitcoin holdings had gone, and if someone comes up to us and asks us if they should buy bitcoin, they cannot go back to some earlier time and say that they could have bought at $117k, but they were too scared, so they did not buy any... and yeah, 4-10 years or longer, it is not likely going to be possible to buy bitcoin in the lower $100ks or even in the sub $100ks.. yet we likely still will need to tell them to get the fuck started and not to wait around and try to hope for some dip that might not happen.


Hopefully you can consider some kind of an investment timeline that is 4-10 years or longer, and just keep buying whatever bitcoin you can for at least a whole bitcoin cycle (4 years) and then see where you are at after 4 years, and surely if you are not very well off, then it could well take you 2-3 cycles before you might start to slow down in your BTC accumulation or to change your strategy away from buying regularly, persistently, consistently, ongoingly and perhaps even aggressively.  It tends to take a while to build up an investment, which is the way to go forward with bitcoin.


It seems to me that if you are a  low coiner or a no coiner, you need to just keep buying bitcoin.  You don't really have a choice, and if you conclude that we are at some kind of a top, then you are more likely screwing yourself by engaging in a waiting rather than a buying approach to bitcoin.  Newbies want to try to act like they are smart and they are ONLY going to prepare for down? That makes little sense.  If you have little to no coins, then you are not prepared for up, you are ONLY prepared for down, which does not seem like a good strategy or approach to bitcoin.


I am having difficult appreciating why you consider that Derekfunds had said anything profound, since there are all kinds of folks who have heard the word bitcoin, but they don't know what the fuck bitcoin is.  They might even think that they know what bitcoin is, but they don't and the fact that around 99% of the world is not investing in bitcoin likely means that they are going to either hear about bitcoin at some later date or they will be forced to look into bitcoin at some later date.

Sure there are some folks who might know some things about bitcoin, but they still do not act to start to buy it, since many times they think that they are too late and they will continue to think that they are too late, until at some time in the future they will realize that they have to start to buy it, even though it is 10x, 100x or some other multiple/magnitude higher in price when they first heard about it.

Even someone brand new to bitcoin right now has to figure out what to do, whether to look into bitcoin or not and/or whether to buy or not, so non-action is a choice... but the non-action does not mean that the matter is resolved, since they may well either end up dying a no coiner or have to get into bitcoin at some later date.. whether that it 2 years from now, 4 years from now, 10 years from now or some later time down the road, unless they end up dying a no coiner.. which also is going to happen to a good number of those who might not be able to identify the need to get started.


Surely many folks consider bitcoin as a trade and not as an investment, and that is part of the reason that they cannot think longer than 2-3 years.

They think that 2-3 years is investing, when it is not.

They cannot get their mind over the fact that bitcoin is 4-10 years or longer, and even 4-10 years is probably too short since the only real reason  to get out of bitcoin is for health and/or age concerns. otherwise the plan is likely better to be longer rather than shorter.


In the end, each person has to figure out for himself, and he can do whatever he likes in regards to bitcoin.  There are a lot of folks who got in and out of bitcoin and now regret because they sold way too many too soon, and then they end up as a low coiner or no coiner and they are no longer benefiting from the power of bitcoin... which is long term... and there are ways that some early folks to bitcoin could have had mostly held onto their bitcoin and they would not have had suffered from their not having had sold earlier.

Many folks still profited from their bitcoin and maybe they bought and sold and made a small fortune, but then if they sold 1,000 bitcoin in 2012 for $30 each they might be feeling bad right now even though they may have had made $30k in their sale, or if they sold 400 bitcoin in 2014 for $900 each , they made $300k, but they feel bad now.. or maybe in 2017 they sold 100 bitcoin for $15k each, and so they made over a $1 million in profits... But they feel bad now.. or in 2022 they sold 60 bitcoin for $50k, they made around $2.5 million.. and felt good at the time, but not feeling so good right now.


Sure that could be one way of using your investment, but you would be stuck getting in and out of bitcoin in 6 years, which could be problematic, since it may well be better to keep investing into bitcoin. That is for you to decide, but you are likely in a  better place and with more options 6-10 years or more down the road by having had gotten into bitcoin rather than not getting into bitcoin.

There are no guarantees in bitcoin either, so each of us has to figure out an investment size that is comfortable for our financial and psychological circumstances.


It is difficult to know what your various costs would be along the way, yet I am sure that you can plot out various scenarios, yet at the same time, I doubt that if you are investing consistently for the next 6 years (whether weekly, monthly or otherwise) that you would necessarily have an averge cost of $117k, yet sure, it is possible.

Many times folk who invest consistently for 4 years, they will end up having average costs that are similar to the 200-WMA, so if you project the 200-WMA forward, you can likely see what your average cost per bitcoin is.  I did that in my 2021 fuck you status chart, which shows that 2029 200-WMA at around $126k, yet my current updated chart that I have not published shows the 200-WMA in late 2029 as being $211k, and I cannot imagine you getting an average price per BTC less than that if you are projecting out 6 years rather than 4 years...   By the way my late 2031 chart shows the 200-WMA as $291k and historically that 200-WMA has tended to serve as a BTC bottom price.. but history does not guarantee the future.. we can merely attempt to project as well as we are able to do and perhaps having various projections of our base case scenarios and then our worser case scenarios and also our better case scenarios to help us to prepare for a variety of scenarios that could end up playing out. .. even if we already have some timeline targets and even if we might be adjusting our projections as we go in order to ongoingly update our projections with actual on the ground facts as they play out in our real life.


I am not sure if I completely agree with the approach that merely invests in bitcoin in order to achieve some other target, even though there surely can be ways that various targets can be likely achieved through bitcoin and not selling all of the bitcoin .

Surely if guys are ongoingly accumulating bitcoin, they can adjust how much they buy each month based on their income, and if their income and/or expenses vary then their discretionary income could end up going up or down, so then they can make adjustments to the amount that they put into bitcoin based on changes in their discretionary income.

They can also incorporate DCA, lump sum buying and buying on dips... so even if they start out with a strict $50 per month into bitcoin, they might realize that it is better to do $10 to $15 weekly, but then as they continue practicing buying bitcoin they might also become more focused on ways to increase their discretionary income, so they could employ various kinds of plans to accumulate more bitcoin and maybe even to try to make fun from the situation.

Even though I have frequently suggested to get started as soon as possible and figure out some balance to be able to buy bitcoin regularly, persistently, consistently, ongoingly and even aggressively if possible, guys are still responsible for their own actions and/or failures to act, so in that sense I am not giving advice, since guys are responsible for themselves, whether they act or fail to act or they fuck something up along the way by getting distracted into trying to trade or get distracted into shitcoins.  Guys sometimes have to make the mistakes that end up setting them back in order to learn from those kinds of matters, and sometimes guys get distracted and they never come back to bitcoin investing (rather than trading).. at least not so far..

Surely, historically guys who have accumulated bitcoin aggressively by mostly buying and holding have done quite well for themselves, especially the longer that they have been engaged in such practices.  I had never suggested guys sell any bitcoin, except spend and replace or maybe once they reach overaccumulation status.. which could take a long while to reach such status.. so then I suggest some form of sustainable withdrawal once guys reach overaccumulation status, which can be price-based sustainable withdrawal practices and/or time based sustainable withdrawal practices.

In the end, guys are responsible for themselves in terms of what they did or they did not do... which continues to be the case that guys can improve on the plans of others by tailoring to their situation, but they also can end up misunderstanding things and getting the various balances of investing and cashflow management wrong.

Guys have to figure out what they are going to do in regards to bitcoin starting from now rather than fantasies about what could have happened in the past, blah blah blah.  We cannot turn back the clock, so we have to figure out what to do from now and not from some set of past circumstances in which we did not act.

Whether you start with $50 per month or you figure out how to do $10-15 per week or some other ways of getting started and learning along the way, your own practices will likely end up getting tailored to your own circumstances, and even after 6 months of investing into bitcoin, you likely will figure out some ways to balance what you are doing so that you feel that you are making progress but at the same time, you are projecting out various future scenarios so that you can better identify which path you are on and any tweaks that you might make in order to attempt to account for your own 9 individual factors.


It is funny or maybe ironic how many folks royally fucked themselves by prioritizing real estate rather than bitcoin.  Sure, I know that people want to have their own place, and there are ways to consider a home as an investment, but if we go through the numbers, bitcoin has absolutely annihilated real estate in the past 5 years, 7 years, 10 years, and longer.  The longer the more obvious it should be even with the best of performing real estate pieces (with the best location etc etc), bitcoin has done way better than even the best of them..

Folks get distracted, and some of them even might build up their bitcoin portfolio to $1 million or some great price and then use their bitcoin to buy real estate... and maybe that was 70 bitcoin in 2017 that were sold for $15k.. it felt good at the time.. . .but now those 70 bitcoin are worth $8.2 million.. hard to imagine very many pieces of real estate that has done that well in the past 8 years.. including how much it had cost to hold that $1 million property for the past 8 years and the various costs to get into it, too... which likely means that the person might have ONLY been able to get a property that was then worth around $850k, and the other funds went to various closing costs..

‎I really do appreciate this advice, honestly. At first I didn’t fully understand the whole DCA method at first, but now it is  starting to make more sense. Trying to time the market as a newbie really does mess with your emotions and  I have already felt that pressure to sell when the market dips.I am learning to focus more on long-term holding now instead of chasing quick profits. Like you said, building gradually and staying consistent is btter than trying to predict the perfect time to buy or sell. I will  definitely stick to DCA and just keep acumulating little by little.