Honestly, $200K this year looks unlikely — too many factors just aren’t clicking.
With the economic and geopolitical developments around the world, and how the market depends on news for growth. I tend to agree with your point that the $200k goal is very difficult to achieve. But as we all know, anything can happen and especially with bitcoin, it always surprises us. So, it is good to be cautious, but there is no need to be too pessimistic because the future is unpredictable and anything is possible.
It requires strong support to achieve these predictions, such as strong market inflows that can significantly increase market capitalization. Pro-crypto government policies, such as Trump proposal to make Bitcoin a strategic reserve to strengthen the US financial system, will indirectly increase purchasing power and promote Bitcoin wider adoption.
The nature of Bitcoin (Decentralization) and is considered a hedge against the risk of a global economic collapse and inflation allowing it to reach or at least approach $200K by the end of the year, but as you said, anything is still possible, for this reason Bitcoin price predictions can vary depending on various factors that occur internally and externally.